REFERENDUM FOR PROMISING REFORMS

On June 5, Kazakhstan held a referendum on amendments to constitution. The total of 56 amendments to 33 articles of the constitution actually create the basis for the development of political institutions of the Second Republic, which will replace the First Republic, the brainchild of the country's first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The reform is, in fact, a dismantling of the former political structure and an attempt to build a new system of checks and balances based on the principle of separation of powers.

In particular, the constitutional changes are meant to shift the super-presidential republic to a presidential one, but with a strong parliament. At the same time, Nursultan Nazarbayev is stripped of most of his privileges, including the status of yelbasy (leader of the nation). Remarkably, Nazarbayev himself supported the amendments. The move is viewed as a political endorsement of his successor's course in exchange for, among other things, guarantees of immunity for the members of Nazarbayev’s family. The new amendments also prohibit relatives of the president from holding senior positions in state bodies, creation of the Constitutional Court, improve the status of the Human Rights Commissioner and introduce a blanket ban on the death penalty.

Path of reforms

The referendum was preceded by serious preparatory work and extensive public debates. At the same time, it is clear that the authorities are in a hurry to make sweeping changes that consolidate the new political situation in the country following the tragic events of January 2022.

Reforms were announced in Kazakhstan on March 16 during the regular address to the nation by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. However, before that, on January 28 and March 1, the ruling party held two congresses. At the March 1 congress, Nur Otan was renamed Amanat. On April 26, following the congress and the decision on reforms, the party held another extraordinary congress, where President Tokayev announced his intention to leave the leadership of the party. Three days later, Tokayev announced the need to hold a referendum on constitutional amendments. A week later, on May 5, he signed a decree on holding a nationwide referendum, which was successfully held a month later. Perhaps it is the first time Kazakhstan introduced such rapid changes in its constitution since its establishment as an independent state.

Getting accustomed to new conditions

Meanwhile, constitutional reforms and the referendum on the adoption of constitutional amendments have considerably revived the political life in Kazakhstan.

The Amanat Party, which has retained its reputation as the ‘ruling party’, at least because it has a constitutional majority in parliament, has been at the forefront of the referendum campaign. It was estimated that party functionaries had held more than 5,000 events in towns and villages on May 24 alone. The country's largest political force has demonstrated its potential in practice. Incumbent chairman of the party, speaker of the parliament Yerlan Koshanov, had a chance to show his leadership potential, demonstrate his organisational skills and the party's ability to reform itself together with the country. Experts note the absence in Amanat party's propaganda activities of the previously practiced mass actions like speeches in full halls, concerts, etc. At the same time, local meetings allowed to determine the mood in masses, nature of requests for changes, which varied in provinces and regions.

Representatives of the parliamentary opposition, the Ak Zhol Democratic Party of Kazakhstan and the People's Party of Kazakhstan, were also active. In some cases, there were differences between the positions of the parliamentary opposition and Amanat, in particular on the issue of the state language. Ak Zhol is known to be in favour of drafting and adopting a new law on the state language.

The opposition National Social Democratic Party (NSDP) took a more categorical stance. But even it expressed support for the reform, underlining the advantages of introducing a mixed system of elections to the parliament and maslikhats, the election of akims and the restoration of the Constitutional Court. On the other hand, NSDP disagreed with the principle of voting for the entire package of constitutional amendments. Furthermore, among the party's radical proposals were the call to rename the capital back to Astana, the abolition of the Senate and the introduction of a mechanism for the election of judges.  However, it did not call for a boycott of the referendum, as other members of Kazakhstan's non-systemic opposition.

Aims and purposes of the referendum

Either way, Kazakhstan held the referendum supported by a significant part of the population. People voted for their future, including for projected socio-economic stability without any more shocks and with an objective to improve the quality of life.

Kazakhstan, like many other countries, has faced the challenges of economic recovery in the post-pandemic period, as well as the difficulties caused by the war in Ukraine. In earlier years, with a large and influential layer of untouchables in business, it was much more difficult to cope with such problems. Now there are new opportunities opening up for the country.

Earlier this year, just two weeks after the January events, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev named the cause of the tragic events as the ‘unacceptable level’ of the gap between the rich and the poor. He noted the need for ‘profound transformation’, ‘real reforms’ and putting an end to the situation when ‘some elite groups’ benefit from economic growth.

In the new environment, the situation will undergo a significant transformation. There are already high-profile trials of the so-called untouchables.

As expected, the greatest concentration of social problems is in the regions, with a number of minor local issues remaining unsolved till this day. People have sought support from the centre, because the local authorities have been passive. And the centre, for obvious reasons, was simply unable to respond promptly. This led to the accumulation of problems, reaching a critical level.

Therefore, it is no coincidence that protests often started in regions of Kazakhstan. Local authorities did not feel responsible to the population and their voters. After the recent changes, as well as the election of akims at the various levels of the executive power, it is expected that they start feeling responsibility to the people who elected them. This means that there is a chance that a significant part of the current problems will be solved locally.

By the way, a few days before the referendum, the Kazakh government approved an action plan to implement the presidential decree on the establishment of provinces Abai, Zhetisu and Ulytau provinces. This move is also expected to improve the efficiency of local administration and the administrative-territorial division of Kazakhstan.

In general, at the heart of the ongoing reforms is the decentralisation of power. The strengthening of the parliament, its functions of control, and the redistribution of powers from the president to parliament are all part of this process.

The referendum has become one of the key conditions for the legitimisation of the entire reform process, an indicator of public support to the political course of the Kazakh leadership. It is very important for the authorities of the country, who clearly express that they have a mandate from the people for changes and that they justify this mandate. It is also significant in terms of increasing the stability of Kazakhstan in the international arena.

The war in Ukraine and the negative effect of sanctions have an increasingly negative impact on various states, including the neighbours of Russia. Kazakhstan is a country that is closely linked to Russia both politically and economically. While the Western countries with interests in Kazakhstan are trying to limit the cooperation of various states with Moscow, Nur-Sultan is interested in demonstrating an independent course based on the interests of its own people, rather than on the intentions of external players. Therefore, the recent referendum may be an answer to questions of with whom and in which direction Kazakhstan is moving.