ON THE BRINK OF WAR

Confrontation between Iran and Israel is getting increasingly hot apart from becoming almost existential for both sides. There is a real danger that it can escalate into an open armed conflict with unpredictable consequences for the region and even for the world.

Murders and conspiracies

The reason behind yet another escalation of tension between Iran and Israel, which is hotter than the previous ones, was a series of mysterious assassinations of a group of Iranian scientists and high-ranking military officers. All of them had something to do with the development of Iran's nuclear and missile programmes, and Iran's defence potential and policies to counter Israel on the international stage.

As expected, Tehran accused Israel of physically eliminating the members of the Iranian military and academia. Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, vowed to take revenge on Israel. Amid threats from Tehran, Israel has called on its citizens to leave several countries because of fears of possible terrorist attacks.

Turkey is one of the countries that found itself at the epicentre of the Iranian-Israeli stand-off. It is reported that the Turkish security forces and Israel prevented a series of attacks against the Israeli citizens. Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, who visited Turkey, thanked the Turkish intelligence "for unraveling the Iranian plot", while his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Ankara would not allow any threats against foreign citizens visiting Turkey.

Incidentally, the joint Turkish-Israeli security operation was another landmark event in the recent intensive rapprochement between the two states. However, the regional scale of the stand-off between Tehran and Jerusalem is in no way limited to Turkey's involvement in the process. And Ankara shows a desire to deepen its dialogue with Iran as well.

One of the sites of the escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel is Syria. Israel periodically strikes pro-Iranian paramilitary positions in Syria. The purpose of the strike on the Damascus airport, which destroyed the runways, was to prevent deliveries of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. At the same time, Israel warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against "further concealing Iranian operations in his country and transferring quality weapons to Syria", threatening that the next strike could target one of the presidential palaces.

Meanwhile, amid Israel's intensified anti-Iranian activity in Syria, its contradictions with Russia, which is not interested in weakening the position of its ally, Damascus, are growing. In particular, Moscow expresses its discontent with Israel's intention not to warn it, as it used to do, about operations against pro-Iranian forces deep inside Syria, which can lead to Russian military casualties. Remarkably, at the end of the 18th international meeting on Syria in the Astana format held in Nur-Sultan, Iran, Russia and Turkey not only "reaffirmed their commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic," but also condemned the ongoing Israeli military offensive against Syria.

However, Israel's problems with individual countries, mainly because of anti-Iranian opposition, do not prevent the Jewish State from continuing actively promoting its policy. After all, the key factor that motivates Israel to contain Iran, which denies the former its very right to exist, is Iran's nuclear programme. Israel is determined to stop it resolutely in order to prevent its materialisation as a nuclear weapon of Iran.

Burning the bridges?

Despite Tehran's reassurances of its nuclear programme’s being a peaceful one, there is still some controversy involved in this extremely sensitive international issue. Iran withdrew from the infamous nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), following a similar unilateral move by the US, and then announced the restart of uranium enrichment. This, in turn, provides fertile ground for Israeli and US allegations that Tehran's nuclear programme is approaching the stage of weapon production.

Meanwhile, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted a resolution condemning Iran for failing to comply with international inspections of its nuclear activities. In particular, it refers to Iran’s failure to clarify the origin of uranium particles at several ‘undeclared’ nuclear facilities. Just before the document was adopted, the Iranian Foreign Ministry warned that it could derail the negotiation process to restore the nuclear deal. Following the adoption of the resolution, Mahmoud Abbaszadeh Meshkini, head of Iran's parliamentary commission for national security and foreign policy, initiated the suspension of Iran's membership in this international organisation. This means that Tehran admits the possibility of ending cooperation with IAEA, which may lead to information vacuum regarding the development of Iran's nuclear programme.

Israel believes that the situation confirms the need to tighten pressure on Tehran. "Iran has once again demonstrated that it threatens peace, both in the region and globally,” Israeli Defence Minister Beni Gantz said referring to the IAEA resolution. The logical conclusion Israel draws from this assessment was made clear by further warnings that it has the "right to take action" in order to disrupt Iran's nuclear programme.

Israel openly declares progress in preparations for possible strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. In particular, the Israeli Air Force is capable of flying its F-35 Adir stealth fighters right to the borders of Iran. And they no longer need to be refueled in air because of the long distance.

Israel demonstrates its determination also through periodic military exercises simulating an attack on Iran. The exercises include neutralisation of Iranian radars and detection systems, cyberweapons and electronic warfare systems, as well as simulations of long-range combat flights. For example, exercises over the Mediterranean Sea involving dozens of Israeli fighter jets caused a major stir. They simulated a massive air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, involving, as the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement, "long-range flights, aerial refueling and strikes against distant targets".

Israel's sweeping anti-Iranian plans are also reflected on a conceptual level. Thus, in his address to the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee of the Israeli Knesset, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett emphasised the change in Israel's strategy towards Tehran over the past year. According to Bennett, it "works against the head, not just the hands", which can be interpreted as a powerful pressure (and possibly a direct threat of physical removal) on Iran's political and military leadership. The strategy is also consistent with Israeli statements on introducing the so-called Octopus Doctrine, which has Iran and not its regional allies as a primary target of Israel. At the same time, there is an idea to limit Tehran's capabilities in regional geopolitics, which is demonstrated through Israel's active participation in building an anti-Iranian alliance together with the Arab countries and under the leadership of the US.

Iran is building up the heat by warning the ‘Zionist regime of Israel’ in case of "any wrong move” by “wiping Tel Aviv and Haifa off the earth". As proof of its power, Iran claims it is equipping the army with high-precision, long-range and intelligent weapons, including attack drones and cruise missiles.

Thus, the confrontation between Iran and Israel directly threatens global and regional security. It is fast moving towards an armed conflict that cannot be avoided by other power centres, if not prevented. The Iranian-Israeli standoff has too many high-priority and side issues on the global and regional agenda. But the escalation of the situation is unlikely to resolve them. Moreover, it will create new problems contradicting the interests of global peace and the security of regional countries.