HOT SUMMER OF 2022

The summit of EU, G7 and NATO held in Brussels, Elmau and Madrid in late June to provide effective assistance to Ukraine in its war against Russia have freshened up global focus on the existing situation, but have not brought the long-awaited peace any closer. Moreover, while the global leaders were holding meetings in the beautiful and comfortable cities of the Western Europe, the war was going on causing more destruction and casualties.

Marshall Plan for Ukraine

The ongoing hostilities in Ukraine and the growing radical component of the public sentiment in Europe towards Russia create favourable conditions for Kiev to continue its efforts on the path towards the EU membership. This can be seen in the way the leaders of European countries have changed or are changing their initial position on Ukraine's possible integration into the political and economic space of the European Union. At the same time, many of them still oppose the development of special measures that would create preferential conditions for Kiev's full-fledged EU membership.

Meanwhile, the war has significantly changed the rules of the game in Europe and created conditions for Ukraine to reshape its political and economic spaces according to EU requirements. The development and implementation of a ‘Marshall Plan’ for Ukraine is expected to increase Brussels' influence over Kiev's economy and politics. Germany is particularly active in this process, and despite all the existing difficulties continues to play the role of financial and economic drive of Europe. Berlin can expect that by being at the forefront of European assistance to Ukraine, it will significantly increase its credibility and be able to ensure long-term influence in Ukraine and Eastern Europe in general.

Remarkably, amid the unprecedented energy crisis in its post-war history, Germany itself now needs serious support. In June, Gazprom reduced the natural gas supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline by 40% (from the planned 167m cubic metres daily (mcmd) to 100mcmd). The Russian state-run gas giant explained the reduction in supplies to scheduled maintenance and Siemens, which is unable to return gas compressor units from repairs due to Canadian sanctions. The EU accuses Russia of blackmail, while Berlin has initiated the second stage of its emergency plan developed for this purpose. It forces individual companies to ensure gas savings. Experts believe that if the situation does not change in the coming months, the country can expect massive shutdowns of energy-intensive industries and overall economic stagnation.

However, Germany prefers not to consider such an alarming prospect. Berlin views the Marshall Plan for Ukraine not only as a means to support Kiev, but also as a tool to boost its investments in lucrative sectors of the Ukrainian economy.

Explaining his vision on the plan, the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that "we need technology, expertise, opportunities for growth to return to secure life, ensure modernisation and social development".

He also suggested that Ukraine's donor countries should become patrons of individual regions, cities and industries affected in the course of hostilities. But this can mean the direct involvement of the EU or individual EU countries in state governance.

EU: dream destination

It is believed that the most effective means of controlling the implementation of large-scale donor assistance to Ukraine can be a candidate status granted by EU to Kiev. According to EU requirements, a candidate for membership must comply with the relevant requirements of Brussels in almost all areas. And Ukraine, if it really wants to qualify for the EU membership, will have to meet these requirements scrupulously, fulfilling all conditions and responding to all remarks. This process gives the EU a chance to determine Kiev's line of conduct and guide its actions.

This does not guarantee, however, that Ukraine will obtain full membership any time it wishes.

It is fair to say though that the donor aid to Ukraine and the procedural issues associated with Kiev's accession to the EU largely depend on the cessation of hostilities. Otherwise, the war and Ukraine's ongoing destruction make it difficult for the EU candidate to fulfill these requirements, let alone rebuild its economy.

Yet on June 23, contrary to expectations, the EU summit saw serious debates on the issue of expanding the list of candidates for the EU membership. It all began when some countries, particularly Austria, wanted to grant a candidate status to Bosnia and Herzegovina as well. For example, the Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer believes that Austria is historically responsible for the fate of the Western Balkan countries, most of which are candidates for EU accession, although the process has largely stalled.

Despite Vienna's insistence, the summit participants could not reach a positive decision on this issue. Nor did they give any date for the start of negotiations on the accession of Albania and Northern Macedonia (due to Bulgaria's adamant position), while Georgia was denied candidate status. Tirana, Skopje, Sarajevo and Tbilisi described the decisions as unfair.

Meanwhile, obtaining candidate status for Ukraine and Moldova proved much easier as the consensus was reached days before the summit.

The EU summit was the first among others where the Ukrainian issue dominated. Further discussions on the political and military perspectives of the issue at the G7 and NATO summits will complete the overall picture of the West's strategic vision on Ukraine.

Intentional blockade or enforcement of order

The ongoing conflict between Russia and the West in Ukraine has created and deepened another problem. For example, on June 17 the Lithuanian Railways announced that they would stop from June 18 the transit to and from the Kaliningrad region of a significant list of goods subject to European sanctions. According to preliminary estimates, this amounts to 40 to 50% of the entire list of transit goods. Vilnius referred to the decision of the European Commission dated March 15. Thus, the list of banned cargo includes construction materials, metals, industrial equipment and products for the aerospace industry. By the end of the year, the list of banned transit goods will be gradually increased. Beginning from July 10 the transit of cement and concrete products, wood, varnishes and paints, fertilisers, building materials, spirits and caviar will be forbidden; the same restriction will apply on coal (August 10) and gasoline and diesel fuel (December 5). On June 21, Lithuania extended restrictions on the transportation of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad, as well as on road cargo transit. However, Vilnius underlined that it did not impose restrictions unilateral, rather the ban is stipulated by the EU sanctions.

In response to these actions, the Secretary General of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said that Moscow would soon respond to Vilnius' decision on the transport blockade of the Kaliningrad region, and Lithuanian residents would seriously feel the consequences of these measures. As a response Russia may strengthen the patrolling of its warships near the Lithuanian waters close to Klaipeda. This can block or seriously impede the entry of foreign vessels into Lithuania's only seaport, which is the main entry point for Lithuanian cargo.

However, Lithuania considers this scenario unlikely and makes it clear that it will not back down from the decision. Either way, it seems likely that both Russia and Belarus tighten security measures at their borders with the EU. This significantly reduces Russia's transit role, forcing it to divert existing own and transit cargo flows to the southern and south-western directions.

New phase of military campaign

On June 24, four months after the start of the war in Ukraine, it was reported that the Ukrainian army units abandoned part of the Severodonetsk industrial zone, effectively abandoning the city.

According to media reports, British intelligence assessed Russia's capture of the city as a "significant success within its reduced war objectives [to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions]". However, it is claimed that "this is only one in a series of challenging tasks that Russia will have to complete in order to capture all of Donbass, including the offensive on Kramatorsk and maintaining the main supply chains to Donetsk".

On June 26, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Donbas for the first time since the war, where he inspected the troops, visited command posts and received reports on the current situation and the actions of Russian troops in the main directions. We can assume that a new phase of military action is being prepared in the coming weeks to fully establish control over Donbass.

Unfortunately, Kiev also suffered from shelling, which resulted in civilian deaths and damage to residential buildings. The Ukrainian side claims that the missile attack was carried out from the "aircraft over the Caspian Sea". These may well be strategic bombers Tu-95 and Tu-160, which do not need to launch missiles from the Ukrainian territory. All they need to do is to take off and set off on a combat course. According to Moscow, Kiev was not subject to shelling, but suffered from the mistaken actions of the Ukrainian air defence system, which resulted in the Ukrainian missile hitting a residential building.

Meanwhile, NATO is reportedly preparing a new military deployment strategy based on an ambitious arms race and an effective shield in the east to repel any possible aggression.

We yet to know whether these measures will be effective and stop the war or not. President Zelensky believes that the war must end before this winter. Therefore, he believes, the country needs to get air defence systems. And this means that Ukraine, Europe and the world should prepare for a hot summer.