STAGE FOUR

Turkey is preparing for another military campaign in Syria. According to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the goal is to address the threat to the country's national security. Ankara sees Damascus as a serious threat to its own security in the region. Behind this concern is the de facto legitimate Kurdish terrorist organisation PYD and its armed wing, which have significantly strengthened their positions in northern Syria.

The document adopted following a meeting of Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation on May 26 states that "military operations conducted previously and planned on the southern borders of the country do not pose a threat to the territorial integrity of neighbouring countries and serve the needs of national security". This suggests that Ankara was preparing in advance for another military operation.

PYD or PKK

Democratic Unity Party, or PYD, was founded in 2002 on the direct orders of the leader of the Kurdish terrorist organisation PKK, Abdullah Ocalan. Due to persecution in Syria, the organisation operated under PKK camps in northern Iraq in its early years. However, the 2011 Arab Spring and its transformation into an armed insurgency in Syria triggered the PKK and other separatist terrorist groups in the region as a whole. Taking advantage of the chaos and conflict in northern Syria, PYD activists began to return from Iraq and gradually organized themselves. Very soon, YPG (People's Self-Defense Units) and its women's brigade YPJ became a military force.

With the emergence of ISIS, the withdrawal of Syrian army from the northern provinces of the country in early 2014, and after a determined pushback against ISIS fighters in Kobani, the military and political power of Kurdish separatist groups have increased. Since 2015, PYD effectively backed by Western countries in the fight against ISIS, has used this patronage to become a strong military and political force. This led to the establishment of the Syrian Democratic Forces coalition and an unofficial Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria. After the defeat and expulsion of ISIS from the region, the Kurdish separatists took control of a large part of the Syrian-Turkish border, from Afrin to Kamishli.  This eventually led to the re-activation of PKK on Turkish territory as well.

Concerned about its own national security, Ankara soon began fighting against the Syrian PKK, which was one step away from becoming a legitimate organisation. Thus, Turkey's first military operation in Syria, the Euphrates Shield, was launched on August 24, 2016, which lasted five months and successfully cleared the areas between Aziz and Jerablus. It was followed by Operation Olive Branch (January 2018). The Turkish army's third operation in Syria was The Source of Peace, which began in October 2019. As a result of all three operations, the Afrin area and a large part of the borderland in the Hasakeh area came under the control of the Turkish army.

Turkey's Syrian campaigns

All these operations were focused on PYD and its separatist and terrorist allies. They made it possible for Ankara to establish its military power and control over the situation in northern Syria. Similarly, Ankara has created a number of zones under its control in Syria to address the issue of Syrian refugees, as this has increasingly boosted social tensions within Turkey itself in recent years. According to various estimates, 2 million Syrians live in areas that have come under Turkish control in previous operations. At the same time, hundreds workers enter the Syrian territory every day to carry out various works. The wages of people living and working in the border area are paid by the Turkish postal service using mainly the Turkish lira for payment. Turkish is the second language in local schools of the area.

In addition to actually controlling this Syrian territory, Turkey is providing it with electricity, building a solid infrastructure there, including post offices, hospitals, etc. It is also establishing local governments and, most importantly, a security force made up of members of the Syrian opposition. Reportedly, as of today, the Turkish army has provided military training for more than 50,000 Syrians in the liberated areas in addition to meeting the financial and military needs of Syrian citizens.

Ankara intends to unite irrepressible and often difficult-to-control local groups into a single army, thus creating a serious politico-military force against the Syrian government. In addition, the Ankara-backed Syrian political-military opposition needs to have more forces and control more territory to play a meaningful role in Syria's future. For this purpose it is also necessary to weaken the Kurdish separatist and terrorist groups, which is the rationale behind another Turkish military campaign.

The fourth operation and its possible consequences

In fact, the Turkish army has actually conducted more military operations in Syria. Among them are the relocation of Suleiman Shah's tomb in 2013 and the fighting in Idlib in February 2020, which caused a military clash with Russian troops. This time Kurdish terrorist groups are in the crosshairs of another upcoming military operation.

Official Syrian media are already spreading news about Turkish army's preparations for fighting in the north of the country. Earlier, the Syrian state news agency SANA reported a rapid increase of Turkish military presence in the border areas of Hasakeh, Raqqa and Aleppo provinces, warning the local population not to leave their homes. There were also reports of Turkish UAVs in the area, as reported by the local population.

As mentioned above, the new military operation will strengthen Turkey's position in the region, particularly in Syria, eliminate PYD/PKK threats and strengthen the position of Ankara-backed Syrian opposition forces, which will create more opportunities for their demands. And, of course, this will strengthen the position of the incumbent Turkish government in the eyes of the local electorate.

Obstacles to the military operation

There are several serious obstacles hampering the Turkish military operation. Undoubtedly, Damascus sees it as a threat to its territorial integrity and occupation, but the low international profile and the inability of Bashar al-Assad's administration to secure sovereignty over all of Syria diminish this protesting voice. At the same time, the Assad government is happy with the outcome of Turkey's military operations against Kurdish groups in northern Syria. The risk of Kurdish autonomy in the Syrian territory worries Damascus more than Ankara, and it is one of the few issues on which both capitals currently agree upon. Neither Ankara nor Damascus wants the Kurds to gain political status.

On the other hand, neither Syrian government forces, nor their main allies—Iran and Russia—are currently able to conduct combat operations in Kurdish areas in northern Syria due to the presence of US military forces there. The 2018 attack by the Wagner mercenaries on a gas plant in Deir ez-Zor and the US military's response to it demonstrated that the Pentagon does not intend to remain a mere observer to attacks on its contingent in regions of its interest. Turkey is therefore the only regional power capable of conducting a military operation in territory currently controlled by Kurdish separatists.

Meanwhile, Turkey's actions in Syria are confronted by three serious forces—US, Russia and Iran. Western media believe that because of the position of these countries, the risk of Turkey to conduct another military operation in Syria is minimal.

Iranian, Russian and Turkish heads of state summit held in Tehran on July 17, 2022 and subsequent statements show that Moscow and Tehran do not approve of the Turkish military offensive in Syria. Specifically, Moscow and Tehran have stated that they could only agree to the operation under certain conditions. Although no clear definition of these conditions are available, Moscow clearly prefers to get Ankara to reconcile with Damascus rather than agree to another military operation. Ankara is not yet ready for this, because in the current situation peace with Damascus may be perceived negatively by its Western allies as well as the local Syrian opposition and Arab partners. Even President Erdogan's rather mild statement on relations with Bashar al-Assad has caused serious resonance in Turkey.

Interestingly, in mid-August, Erdogan spoke openly with journalists during his visit to Ukraine and said that Ankara had no intention of "defeating Assad". The media interpreted the statement as a sign of reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus.

As earlier, the US government opposed Turkey's military action and expressed its concern over the tensions on the Turkish-Syrian border. However, Washington has demonstrated a similar stance before, but on each occasion had to take into account Turkey's security concerns as a NATO ally.

Despite all obstacles, after successful preparations in the military, political, and diplomatic fields, Turkey is ready to carry out the military operation. Currently, Moscow's position and conditions remain the main obstacle. Meanwhile, the resumption of diplomatic negotiations with Damascus is not a serious problem for Ankara under the current circumstances.

Firstly, everyone understands that the ousting of Bashar al-Assad failed and that, in any event, he will be the one to sit down at the negotiating table. Even some of the Arab monarchies, considered arch-enemies of the Assad regime, are restoring their embassies in Damascus and preparing the ground for the return of the Syrian government to the League of Arab States (LAS).

All that remains is to prepare domestic public opinion and the Syrian opposition for this event, which presents some difficulties at the moment. Therefore, Ankara is not in a hurry and relies on the emergence of favourable conditions for this. Plus, given that Turkish public opinion will be focused mainly on elections next year, we can expect that the military operation will probably be delayed for several more months. By then anything can happen, from unexpected events to sudden decisions.