POWER IN THE SHADOW OF TERROR

It has been a year since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital Kabul on August 15, 2021 and finally restored its power in the country.

The Taliban, whose backbone are ethnic Pashtuns, first came to power back in 1996. But after the US military intervention in Afghanistan in 2001, they retreated into the mountains and continued guerrilla resistance throughout the US campaign.

Almost twenty years later, the inconclusive war forced the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. By the time the last American soldier left the Kabul airport, screams and gunfire could be heard here and there in the streets of the capital, marking the Taliban's triumphant return to their former domain. Except for some minor skirmishes, the Afghan government troops could not offer serious resistance to the advancing enemy forces. Thus ended yet another Afghan campaign by the West. While the Taliban returned to power after twenty years having partially reconciled its actions and making a number of commitments.

Under the agreement reached in Doha on February 29, 2020 between the Taliban and the US delegation, Washington pledged to withdraw its contingent from Afghanistan within 14 months, and the Taliban, in turn, pledged to prevent the operation of a number of international terrorist groups, predominantly Al-Qaeda, in the country.

Since seizing power, the Taliban have attempted to create the appearance of change and a softening of their views in order to secure international legitimacy and support. However, in the months that followed and over the past year, it became clear that the Taliban's ostensible promises were only masked by a desire not to provoke international outrage. The most prominent target of manipulation was the Taliban's policy on women's rights.

Nuances of women's business

The situation with women rights has been almost the main concern of the international community with the return of the Taliban. Indeed, the early years of Taliban rule (1996-2001) witnessed a serious deterioration in women's rights in Afghanistan. Overall, the Taliban's policy towards women, with all sorts of prohibitions on their rights, including the right to education, caused panic in the world and led to hatred against the Taliban.

Over the past twenty years, at least some steps have been taken to ensure women's rights in Afghanistan, to restore the rights to study and to participate in public affairs. Now all of these accomplishments are under threat again. Immediately after coming to power, and even before a new government was formed, the Taliban promised to grant rights to their women. However, the events of the last twelve months have demonstrated that there is no hope. On the contrary, Afghan women have already lost most of the rights they were granted in previous years.

After the capture of Kabul on August 15, 2021 and the proclamation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the Taliban soon forgot about their promises. Almost a month later, the first women's protest in Kabul was held. In fact, in the early days of protests the Taliban condemned the crackdown, but the events of the following days showed that this was just a set of nice-sounding words. Just three days later, Abdullah Wasig, chairman of the Cultural Commission, made a statement about the "irrelevance" of women's sports in Afghanistan. His words soon materialised as an official act banning Afghan women from doing sports.

On September 17, Afghan women were banned from working as journalists. The Ministry of Women's Affairs was abolished on the same day and replaced with the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice. On September 19, it was decided that women officials working in Kabul should stay at home. So no women entered the cabinet of the new Taliban government.

According to the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice order dated December 26, 2021, women must be accompanied by a male member of the family if they travel distances of more than 72 km. Drivers have been banned from letting women with their heads uncovered into cars. And on January 22, the country officially launched a campaign to force women to wear head scarves.

On March 23, 2022, girls were banned from attending classes at secondary schools. A ban on women driving cars came into effect on May 3. From May 7, women were required to keep their faces covered in public, and from May 21 the same ban was extended to women television hosts.

As we can see, the Taliban reneged on their promises when they came to power to ensure women's rights. The Taliban's promises to international organisations, especially the UN, to ensure the rights of Afghan women in the country were in fact nothing more than a propaganda stunt designed to change the attitudes of these organisations to Taliban.

In other words, the women's rights situation has shown that the Taliban, first and foremost, have remained true to their Islamist image and have no intention of abandoning their ideological course in the future.

Aspects of discord

Another factor in the tensions between the West and the Taliban was the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri by the US military in his home in an elite district of Kabul in July this year. Washington accused the Taliban of breaking its pledge not to support al-Qaeda. Taliban, in turn, accused the US of violating the 2020 Doha agreement, under which they promised to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan.

Abdus-Salam Hanafi, the second deputy prime minister in the Taliban government, told reporters they did not have any details on al-Zawahiri's killing. "All we know is that there was an air strike, which the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan strongly condemns... We have repeatedly stated our policy of not using the territory of Afghanistan against neighbouring and other countries. And we firmly adhere to this policy," Hanafi said. The US State Department spokesman accused the Taliban of violating the Doha agreement by giving the al-Qaeda leader asylum in Kabul and their repeated assurances to the world that Afghan territory would not be used as a terrorist safe haven to threaten the security of other countries.

Remarkably, in contrast to the West, the Taliban continues to maintain normal relations with Russia. This is also the position demonstrated by Moscow, given the risk of an explosion of the situation in Central Asia. This is probably how the Russian government intends to acquire a new ally in Central Asia, taking advantage of the obvious problems between the Taliban and the West.

In March 2022, a Russian delegation visited Kabul. During the visit, a number of high-level meetings were held with representatives of the Taliban, who expressed an interest in establishing cordial relations with Russia. Zamir Kabulov, Russian presidential special envoy to Afghanistan, made a statement. In June 2022, Kabulov said Russia may officially recognise the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

Interestingly, the Taliban representatives later attended an international conference also attended by the Russian president, even though the Kremlin still recognises the Taliban as a terrorist organisation.

We can assume that Moscow is interested in establishing favourable relations with Afghanistan, which has serious problems with the West and is considered the main bridge to South Asia. The Taliban is backed by China being a key force for security and stability in Central Asia, which has historically been a sphere of the Russian influence. Moscow fears a military conflict between Afghanistan and Tajikistan that could turn Central Asia into another bloodbath. This poses a major threat to Russia in the context of its protracted military campaign in Ukraine.

Food test

For the Taliban, Russia is a key country in terms of food supply. This is a very important factor, given that Afghanistan has suffered from drought over the past few years. Since the Taliban seized power in the country, a severe food shortage has arisen due to a drastic reduction in foreign aid. Therefore, the Taliban welcomed the Russian president's decision to allow the sale of grain to Afghanistan.

The threat of famine is one of the three pressing concerns of the Taliban. The ongoing drought and the withdrawal of foreign aid have severely tested their regime.

The other two serious problems in Afghanistan are ISIS and the Hazara Shia.

A few days after the Taliban took control of Kabul, an armed group under the control of ISIS, Khorasan, attacked the Kabul airport. Over the past year there have been a number of terrorist attacks in the country, mainly targeting Shiite mosques and claiming dozens of victims. Particularly high numbers of casualties occurred in October and November last year.

Interestingly, the roots of the Taliban and ISIS go back to the same jihadist movements that emerged from the Soviet-Afghan war. However, the conflict between ISIS and al-Qaeda during the Syrian war put ISIS at odds with other similar groups. Due to close ties with al-Qaeda, the Taliban also joined the fight against ISIS. As a result, ISIS formed its first local group in northern Afghanistan in 2015 to confront the Taliban. The Taliban's seizure of power in the country after signing an agreement with the US further exacerbated the conflict. So ISIS, i.e. its subordinate group Khorasan known as ISIS-K, remains one of the powerful opponents of the Taliban in Afghanistan at the moment.

On the one hand, ISIS attacks on Shia Hazara mosques in Afghanistan undermine the power of the ‘infidel’ Shia and, on the other hand, can create a hotbed of internal instability for the Taliban. Meanwhile, ISIS carried out another attack in August 2022 on the Shia Sadiqia mosque in the Sare Kotal area of Kabul's Kheyirkhana district. The attack killed 21 people and injured 33.

Hazara Turks are the main Shiite community in Afghanistan. They became famous for their own armed resistance groups during the Soviet-Afghan war. And during the Afghan coalition government led by Burhaneddin Rabbani (1992-1996), they came under pressure and heavy attacks from groups they had once fought alongside against the Soviets. The Hazaras, supported mainly by Iran, never managed to become a viable force in Afghanistan. But given the role of the Iranian factor, the Taliban and other significant political and military groups in Afghanistan have had to reckon with the Hazaras and maintain an appropriate level of relationship with them.

In June 2022, a Hazara warlord, Mowlavi Mehdi Mojahed, a former member of the Taliban, rebelled against the movement and seized parts of northern Afghanistan. Among his demands was the sharing of political power in the country with an active involvement of the Hazaras. Mojahed (33) is one of the few influential non-Pashtun leaders of the Taliban. With a relatively strong armed backing for himself and his supporters, Mojahed has been known for his fights against his former comrades-in-arms. In an effort to counter any form of insurgency in the country, the Taliban have been forced to deploy armoured vehicles against Mojahed's supporters.

The Taliban's more rigid attitude towards enemies among former friends and allies such as ISIS and Mehdi Mojahed demonstrates that they are not particularly concerned about the remnants of the former regime, nor about the National Resistance Front led by Ahmad Masoud, nor about the Tajik-based Northern Resistance Front and other similar groups. ISIS is ideologically close to the Taliban, while Mojahed, even though he is affiliated with a different madhab of Islam and fought alongside the Taliban, gained influence within the organisation and was able to rally supporters around him. The concern of the Taliban is reinforced by the Hazara factor.

Thus, a year of Taliban rule has seen the movement lose even the existing low level of credibility. The way things are going shows that Afghanistan will gradually become more isolated. Soft and tolerant attitude towards the Taliban by Russia, China and Iran is associated with risks the Taliban may pose to their national security. For example, the Taliban remain on Russia's list of terrorist organisations even after their representatives have been invited to various official events in Moscow. So far it is difficult to say under what conditions and how long this tolerance will last. But it is known that the situation involving the Taliban can explode at any time.