ZERO-SUM GAME?

"As agreed with President Biden, we have complete freedom to do whatever we deem necessary to stop the possibility of Iran becoming a nuclear threat," Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said during his visit to the country's 140th Air Force Squadron. He added that "Israel is prepared for any threat and any scenario" from Iran.

At a time when the US and Iran are just one step away from restoring the nuclear agreement that has made enough noise over the past seven years, Israel's concerns are understandable. Tel Aviv believes that Tehran threatens it not only with the prospect of obtaining nuclear weapons, but it also wants to get rid of sanctions and increase its revenues from oil and gas exports later to be provided to anti-Israeli armed groups in the Middle East. That said, Israelis believe that the rehabilitation of the nuclear agreement will sooner or later free Iran from tough sanctions, ensuring that it can supply the world markets with large quantities of hydrocarbons. This is why the nuclear agreement is almost a red line for Israel, despite Washington's determination to restart the negotiation process.

Washington is relentless

The incumbent White House administration is determined to return to the nuclear agreement signed by the Democratic team in 2015. By doing so, Washington seeks to ensure international control over Iran's nuclear activities, reduce the Islamic Republic's activity in the region and cut off the growing ties of cooperation between Iran, China and Russia in recent years. The Biden administration believes that even the toughest sanctions against Iran imposed during the Trump administration have failed to compel Tehran to give up. On the contrary, the Iranians continued to attack the regional interests of the US, skillfully speculating on the anti-Western protest wave.

On the other hand, amid the ongoing campaign to isolate Russia globally, Moscow attaches serious importance to the East, especially to Iran. Tehran is one of Moscow's main supporters against Western isolation. The restart of the nuclear talks can give Washington an opportunity to balance Iran's actions in this direction. Therefore, the White House insists on continuing the nuclear talks, despite the best efforts of the Israeli and Jewish lobbies, as well as the domestic Republican opposition to cancel it.

Conservative reconciliation

The incumbent, thirteenth Iranian government, despite its hardline foreign policy views, has demonstrated a willingness to advance the negotiating process for the nuclear deal, although the policy of reconciliation with the West was one of the main issues that Ebrahim Raisi's team used against his predecessors and Hassan Rouhani personally. But, apparently, the political and ideological considerations matter less than all sorts of domestic circumstances. Sanctions are weakening Iran's economy along with the ongoing global food crisis. In this situation, the emerging global energy deficit plays into Tehran's hands, offering it a number of attractive opportunities. That is why the conservative Raisi team is doing everything possible to revive the negotiation process for a nuclear agreement. For example, Tehran has dropped its demand to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Sepah) from the list of terrorist organisations—a pre-condition it had previously declared a red line. Iranian officials now say the mutual concessions are inevitable. Iranian media is relentless about the difficulties that Europe will have to face as early as this winter should the West refuse to renew the previous agreements with Iran. In other words, despite this relentless pressure, Tehran is signalling its willingness to reinstate the nuclear deal.

Iranian government spokesman Ali Bahaduri Jahromi said that official Tehran demanded a number of guarantees regarding the future nuclear deal, including Washington's pledge not to terminate the agreement, to ensure objective and expedient verification of compliance with the terms of the agreement, etc.

Jahromi also said that the Islamic Republic would not withdraw from the negotiation process, as it had not done before either. There are several reasons to consider. First, it is important for Iran to get international sanctions lifted and return to the energy market in order to improve the economic situation in the country. Secondly, Tehran has always stated that it had no plans to acquire nuclear weapons, thus demonstrating that there were no obstacles to the resumption of negotiations. At the same time, restoring the agreements would strengthen Iran's economic and political relations with the countries of the region ensuring the suspension of Iran’s global isolation.

Opposition from Israel

Theoretically, the Israeli leadership has no reason to worry about the expected Iranian-American reconciliation, for Washington is the international guarantor of Israel’s security. President Joe Biden, who visited Israel on July 13, 2022, reiterated that the US would provide Israel with proper protection and confirmed his statement by signing a number of official documents. Undoubtedly, no matter who sits in the Oval Office, the US armed forces will be mobilised immediately in the event of foreign military intervention against Israel. Then what’s the reason behind Israel’s concerns?

Dangerous scenario

What really scares the Jewish state is not the risk of Iran secretly acquiring nuclear weapons once the deal is restored. On the contrary, it is clear that the resumption of the talks after a seven-year pause would allow for tighter international control over Iran's nuclear activities, which in turn would drastically reduce the possibility of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon. Israel understands this well. Jewish politicians and military officials are far more worried about the benefits Iran will gain by restoring the deal. Israeli Prime Minister Lapid has publicly stated that as a result of restoring the nuclear agreement and lifting sanctions on Iran, Tehran will get $250 billion that will strengthen its nuclear activities and military arsenal. This includes Iran's ballistic missile programme and funding for armed groups in the Middle East.

According to Israeli officials, some of the oil and gas revenues generated by Tehran as a result of the lifting of sanctions go to radical armed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, contributing to tensions in the Middle East. In other words, Israel is concerned that Iran, having escaped sanctions, may strengthen its economy and increase its military activities.

Ultimately, Iran's reinforcement will unleash the armed regional groups fighting against Israel. It could also create an obstacle to the ongoing Arab-Israeli reconciliation. Thus, a ‘nuclear peace’ between Iran and the US is unacceptable to Israel.

But it seems that all attempts by the Israeli leadership to suspend the process of restoration of the infamous nuclear deal will fail. Israeli officials who visited Washington in late August failed to meet with senior US officials because the latter were on holiday or otherwise absent.

Last resort

Probably the only way for Israel to disrupt or even derail the Iranian-American reconciliation is through military confrontation with Iran or through actions that would force it to abandon negotiations.

The existing tension has already caused a wave of covert and overt assassination attempts between Tehran and Tel Aviv. News about spy operations and mysterious deaths appear almost daily. In early September, Iran's intelligence services arrested 12 Baha'is on charges of spying for Israel. Before that, spy cells were exposed in Kurdish areas. Iran is experiencing a peak of tension in constant anticipation of an Israeli threat. The state of anxiety is gradually spreading to religious groups as well. Baha-ullah, the founder and leader of Baha'ism, was born in Iran in the mid-19th century, died and is buried in Haifa, then part of the Ottoman Empire, where he was exiled for his apostate views. Haifa and Baha-ullahs tomb there are shrines to Baha'i followers, whose total number reaches nearly ten million. It is probably for this reason that Iranians are so wary of Baha'i connections with Israel, fearing that followers of this religious group will work for the latter.

According to many experts, Syria could be the site of a new confrontation between Iran and Israel. One of the strongest arguments in favour of this assumption is the periodic attacks on Syrian civilian and military targets by the Israeli Air Force. In the past they have targeted mostly military targets, especially Iranian military units and militia groups under their influence. In the last few months, however, we can see strikes on civilian airports and chemical plants in Damascus, Aleppo and other parts of the country. Israel claims that weapons, equipment and technology necessary for the production of weapons are being transported from Iran to Syria by civilian aircraft.

It is known that Iran recruited volunteers from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and other countries to form military units in Syria, especially during the acute period of the civil war in the country. The Iranian Sepah is mainly responsible for organising and further engaging these formations into combat operations in particularly tense conflict zones. Israel claims that these groups are gradually moving southwards towards the Israeli border and that missile plants are being built on Syrian territory. Israeli officials believe these groups will be used against Israel in the future.

To eliminate these threats, the Jewish military and political leadership periodically orders airstrikes on Syrian territory. It is true that Iran has not yet responded to them, but no one can guarantee that Israeli territory will not be subject to missile attacks.

Interestingly, Russian air defence systems deployed in Syria turn a blind eye to Israeli air strikes. However, they are usually launched from the Mediterranean Sea, and the aircraft do not actually enter the Syrian territory. Because of technical limitations, Syrian air defence systems are often unable to shoot down launched missiles.

Russia, which, like Syria, is Iran's main regional ally, is tolerant of Israeli attacks on Iranian armed forces. The conflict between Israel and Iran on Syrian territory also seems to benefit Moscow.

The distance of the Iranian territory from Israel, the high probability that the Israeli attack aircraft can be shot down over Iran, and the opposition of the US leadership to strikes on Iranian nuclear plants encourage the Israeli leadership to be more active in attacking Syria. In fact, Iranian military units in Syria are also considered legitimate US targets. Moreover, this fact does not bother Washington because these facilities are not directly on Iranian territory.

In other words, an open confrontation in Syria seems to be the best option for both Iran and Israel (and therefore the US). Among other things, a diversion from Ukraine to the Middle East and a global confrontation also serves Russia's interests.

Given the above, as well as the Israeli bombing of Syria in recent months, there is a high probability that the next military conflict will take place on the Syrian territory. This is also manifested by the rapidly progressing process reinforcing the likelihood of a new nuclear deal with Iran. But the risk of escalation of the military conflict in Syria remains one of the main factors inhibiting decisive Israeli action.