DREAMS AND REALITIES

There will be no meeting in Brussels on December 7, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev officially stated. “The next meeting in Brussels was supposed to be held on December 7, because at the last meeting we agreed to meet in November. But then we had a meeting in Sochi organised by President Putin on the end of October. But yesterday (November 24) I got information from Hikmet Hajiyev that he was communicated from the office of President Charles Michelle that [Armenian] Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to the meeting on a condition that President [Emmanuel] Macron should also participate. But that means that this meeting will not take place because of what happened after the Prague summit, on October 6. In less than a week after the summit, President Macron gave an interview where he attacked Azerbaijan and accused us of what we have not done. Then the French Senate adopted that famous resolution, which was absolutely unacceptable and insulting. Now there will be another resolution of the National Assembly of France of the same anti-Azerbaijani origin. Then there was an attempt of France to attack us through the Francophonie Summit…  So, taking all that into account it is clear that under these circumstances, France cannot be part of the peace process between Azerbaijan Armenia. It was not us who cut them from this format but them,” President Ilham Aliyev said at the recent international conference Along the Middle Corridor: Geopolitics, Security and Economy.

Dreams of France and realities of South Caucasus

Apparently, the tough decision of Azerbaijan was fully justified. President Aliyev drew red lines: we will not tolerate the blatant partiality of a country claiming to be a mediator. France's flirting with Armenia led to what it should have led to—Azerbaijan’s principal and complete rejection of French mediation.

It is clear that France has a special focus on Armenia. Many French politicians are actively collecting the votes of ethnic Armenians living in France, as well as French Islamophobes. For the latter, Armenia's aggression against Azerbaijan is a war between the ‘good Christians’ and ‘bad Muslims’. But high-ranked government officials should be able to distinguish between the electoral interests and serious politics. Especially, they should not forget that the main demand for a mediator is neutrality. Perhaps in Paris they thought that Azerbaijan would get down with it. However, France itself will have to get down with another foreign policy failure. Moreover, Paris has undermined the positions of its partners in the EU risking the hitherto successful European mediation efforts. Paris clearly underestimated the determination of the Azerbaijani president.

Theoretically, these events should have encouraged Moscow. They were not enthusiastic about the Brussels mediation between Baku and Yerevan anyway. But in practice the situation is more complicated.

By making a fretful demand for Macron’s presence at the talks, the Armenian Prime Minister demonstrated once again his lack of autonomy and his intention to win the support of alternative patrons amid Russia’s suffering on the international arena. France, understandably, tops the list of supporters of Armenia thanks to special relationship with the latter. In parallel, Pashinyan sends sharp remarks to Moscow, particularly evident during the CSTO summit in Yerevan.

Friendship is all very well but...

It looks like Yerevan did everything properly. Nikol Pashinyan personally met Vladimir Putin at the airport. They even organised a rally In front of the Russian embassy to support the friendship between Armenia and Russia.

In general, however, the mood in Armenia was not well. In parallel with pro-Russian rallies Yerevan hosted anti-Russian rallies with Ukrainian and European flags, insulting slogans, etc. Just before the CSTO summit Pashinyan greeted observers from the EU and OSCE in Armenia. Most importantly, one could hear statements coming from various levels in Armenia that the CSTO allies had betrayed Armenia and failed to protect it from Azerbaijan.

Finally, Pashinyan made a loud demarche at the CSTO summit by refusing to sign the statement dedicated to Armenia. In the group photo made at the end of the summit, he tried not to stand next to Putin.

How should we understand this? Does Armenia seriously think of reorienting its foreign policy? Is it leaving Russia's sphere of influence?

Slamming doors with a frightened look back

How realistic and feasible are Armenia's prospects for reorienting its foreign policy towards the West is an open question. Yerevan’s military, economic and political dependence on Moscow is still there. Russian companies own Armenian railways, electricity and gas networks and mobile communication companies. Armenian border with Turkey and Iran is controlled by the Russian border guards, while the Russian military bases and the joint air and land forces are responsible for security. That’s why the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently publicly called Armenia a ‘slave of Russia’. Observers also remember well how Nikol Pashinyan begged Moscow "not to forget" Armenia—initially at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok and then during the talks with Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin in Sochi.

In his attempt to put pressure on Moscow, Pashinian in fact has trapped himself. He over-accelerated public opinion in Armenia on the eve of the CSTO summit and put forward unrealistic demands to his allies. No one is going to die for Armenian territorial claims, especially among the Turkic-speaking countries of the CSTO or in Belarus, which maintains strong ties and partnership with Azerbaijan. That’s exactly what Alexander Lukashenko reminded him at the summit. As a result, Pashinyan faced a difficult dilemma. Fearing political complications at home more than Moscow's wrath, he could no longer sign a statement where the CSTO member states would promise Armenia the Azerbaijani territories. Without signing the final statement, he immediately began telling stories about his ‘successful’ conversation with Vladimir Putin in the car.

‘Warning’ from Vardanian

It is clear that Pashinyan's manoeuvres are unlikely to force the CSTO member states to take military action. But it is interesting how long Moscow is going to tolerate Pashinyan's funny business. It has plenty of tools to deal Pashinyan a painful blow on the local political field.

At the same time, it is also worth watching the political manoeuvres of Ruben Vardanian, a scandalous Russian oligarch who arrived from Moscow with a known agenda, as the President of Azerbaijan reminded us. After getting the post of ‘state minister’ in the unrecognised government of the Garabagh separatists, he is giving interviews and organising rallies in Khankendi similar to those we know from the first wave of separatism in Garabagh. As experts in both Baku and Yerevan noted, Vardanian is also very active in forming a new government from the teams of Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharian.

For Azerbaijan, all this rat race cannot even theoretically pose a danger. Azerbaijan retains its political, economic and military leadership throughout the South Caucasus. Victory in the war cannot be ignored, especially amid Azerbaijan's increased economic status.

In fact, Ruben Vardanian is forming his team against Nikol Pashinyan, which is not even a shadowy government for Armenia.

But this government, whose supporters are accusing Pashinian of treason, will still have to negotiate on behalf of the defeated Armenia. Yet reshuffling the mediators will not change the outcome of the war.