TWELVE FAILED SPRINGS

It has been twelve years since the launch of the Western-style democratisation process for North Africa and the Middle East, also known as the Arab Spring. On December 14, 2010, a street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest against the municipal authorities in the small Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid. This triggered a series of protests first in Tunisia and then in the entire Arab world. Known in Tunisia as the Jasmine Revolution, the wave of popular outrage was dubbed the Arab Spring shortly after it swiftly spread to other countries. It has become a catalyst for a series of fateful changes in the Arab world, leading to a change of government in some countries and unleashing the still-ongoing civil wars in others.

Characteristics of the Arab Spring

In general, the revolutionary processes were most seriously observed in the republican Arab states, including Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria. In the Arab monarchies, the Arab Spring is known for relatively small-scale protests. The most violent of these took place in Bahrain, a small island state considered a scene of the ongoing political-ideological rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Attempts to link the demonstrations to religious divisions and Iranian influence in the country provoked neighbouring Riyadh to deploy its army on the island following the respective decision of the Gulf Cooperation Council. This turned the hopes of the organisers of the unrest into a complete failure. In Jordan and Kuwait, the protests resulted in the renewal of the governments, while in other countries the protests were smaller in scale and were successfully suppressed.

As mentioned, the main revolutionary processes took place in the Arab countries with a republican form of governance. In early January 2011, Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who had ruled the country for 23 years, fled to Saudi Arabia. In fact, Tunisia became the first country where the Arab spring won. A similar situation took place in another North African country, Egypt. The Hosni Mubarak government could withstand the protest for three weeks only beginning from January 25, 2011. On February 11, Mubarak resigned.

In anticipation of the changes, the unrest soon turned into full-scale civil war. Initial peaceful protests in neighbouring Tunisia soon turned into armed clashes and fierce fighting between government forces and opponents of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who had been the sovereign ruler of Libya for 42 years. In late March 2011, NATO provided military and political support to the Libyan opposition by bombing Libyan government forces.

The same happened in Syria, another Arab country with a republican system, where protests turned into a civil war after about three months since the beginning.

A similar situation took place in Yemen, in the south of the Arabian Peninsula. Protest actions against Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled the country for 30 years, began in February 2011 and ended with his resignation a year later. The revolution in the most unstable country in the region then turned into a struggle between various armed groups that continues to this day.

The Second Moment of Spring: Bread or Democracy?

There are several factors cited as the causes of the Arab Spring, including the surge of democratisation, poverty, the Islamic awakening, etc. However, none of them has influenced the overall process individually. Although these factors were more or less prominent during certain periods of the Arab Spring.

For instance, in poor Tunisia the first protests started with slogans calling for the eradication of poverty and unemployment. On the other hand, poverty was not that noticeable in neighbouring Libya, given the country's oil revenues. In Egypt and Syria, the phenomenon of the Islamic awakening has been identified as the main factor behind the protests, although local Islamist groups had not previously been very active. The Islamic organisations subsequently became stronger and took over the leadership of the street protests and did not become a political force until a later stage of the popular uprising, for there had never been political pluralism in these countries. Opposition political parties were dismantled, giving way to Islamist movements such as the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which had previously operated in the shadows.

There are several reasons behind the revolutionary movements in Arab republics with authoritarian regimes. Firstly, the republican system. The form of political government in these countries was a republic, at least formally, while the population had been aware of the practice of power change. Moreover, unlike monarchies, the constitution and laws of these countries allowed for changes.

Secondly, sociopolitical injustice. The WikiLeaks documents made public shortly before the Arab Spring revealed very serious evidence of corruption and political intrigue within the Arab authorities. Many believe that the revelations of WikiLeaks helped fuel the protest sentiments in those countries as well. In any case, social injustice, the concentration of state wealth and positions in the hands of a small group of people, poverty and the lack of rights of the vast majority of the population were the main driving forces behind the revolutions.

The third reason is the lack of large oil reserves, or a so-called oil safety buffer. With the exception of Libya, the other victims of the Arab Spring had little revenue from the sales of hydrocarbon. Therefore, their governments failed to gain the favour of the disgruntled segment of the population with the proceeds of oil and gas sales. Non-oil countries, on the other hand, had failed to secure the timely foreign support generously provided to governments with oil revenues. The only exception here was Libya. But Gaddafi's total refusal to obey the West soon led to his tragic and painful end.

Why did the revolution fail to bring democracy?

Public protests provoked by the Arab Spring led to the overthrow of governments in only four Arab republics - Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. In Syria, the protests turned into a civil war followed by ongoing terror and chaos. The protest movement has failed to establish democracy and stability in any of the five republics. Stability and transition to democracy has been partly recorded only in Tunisia, the first victim of the revolution. However, because of the deep conflict between political Islamists and secular political blocs in the country, Tunisian democracy is also under serious threat.

Relatively favourable perspectives in Tunisia and the emergence of a parliamentary democracy in the country can be explained by several circumstances. These include the lack of experience of military coups, smooth period of republican rule since independence, when the country has been led by just two presidents not caught by civil wars or military coups. Other factors are these countries’ long distance from the conflict zones, lack of oil resources and, finally, the existence of political institutions. Thanks to Islamic leaders, in particular the head of the Nahda (Awakening) movement, Rachid Ghannouchi, the revolution in Tunisia went more or less bloodlessly, leading to the establishment of a parliamentary system of government represented by various political forces.

Revolutions in Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen ended differently. The regime change in Libya and Yemen led to civil war, while in Syria there was no regime change whatsoever.

The most significant factor that influenced the outcome of revolutions in these four countries was foreign intervention. In 2012, in Egypt, where the Arab Spring activists won their first victory, the opposition movement Muslim Brotherhood won a majority in parliament as well as the post of the president. However, the Islamist rule soon encountered serious opposition both at home and abroad. As a result of a military coup in 2013, Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi, commander of the Egyptian Army General Staff, became the head of state.

In other countries, protests degenerated into civil war leading to chaos and terror growing proportionally with the direct and indirect intervention of foreign states. The long-running civil wars in Libya, Yemen and Syria is clearly a result of external influence. Yemen has fallen victim to an indirect war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, while Libya found itself torn apart between Turkey and Qatar on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE as well as several European countries on the other. Syria is a matter of interest between Turkey, the US, European and Gulf countries, Russia, Iran and partly China. That is why achieving a lasting and stable peace in these three countries seems impossible for the time being.

Despite its broad geographical scope, the Arab Spring led to the change of power only in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. In three of these countries (Libya, Yemen and Syria), it resulted in a civil war. In Tunisia, the crisis of power is still ongoing. There is no democracy, stability or development in any of the countries. And it seems this situation will remain unchanged in the next few years.

On the contrary, the Arab Spring has opened a Pandora's Box for radical armed Islamist groups in the Middle East, becoming a catalyst for the spread of terrorism and anarchy in the region. On the other hand, the ideology of political Islam, which had been successfully developing before, began to degenerate. For example, the Muslim Brotherhood, which was seen as a promising movement in Egypt, could not withstand the political test. Instead, Islamism presented itself in new forms, such as the radical Islamist groups ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra and others. At the same time, any hopes of change through democracy and revolutions have been buried. The recovery process will probably take a long time. In the coming years, the countries of the region will have a long time to heal the wounds of the Arab Spring.