THE OGHUZ ALLIANCE

The meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan in Avaza (Turkmenbashi) announced a few weeks ago marked the beginning of a new phase of relations between the three states. This is a reality reflecting the complex nature of the ongoing regional and global processes.

Twenty-year old format of cooperation

The trilateral format of cooperation between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Turkmenistan has a long history going back to the late 1990s. The first summit of the leaders of these countries took place on November 29, 2008 in Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan where presidents Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Ilham Aliyev and Abdullah Gül discussed the prospects of trade and economic cooperation and possible involvement in the construction of a gas pipeline thorough the Caspian Sea.

However, the political and economic environment of the time, ongoing negotiations on the final political and legal status of the Caspian Sea and the incompleteness of the Southern Gas Corridor posed certain obstacles to the implementation of ambitious energy agreements between the three states.

If we virtually travel back to that time, we can see that the Nabucco pipeline project was in the spotlight. However, for economic and political reasons it never materialised, while the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) project was not even announced. Therefore, the ongoing disputes over the expected route of the pipeline linking the Caspian region to Europe and the destination point, along with the issues of transit prices and construction costs were of much greater concern to participants and potential gas buyers.

Nevertheless, in 2008 the two countries agreed that they would actively develop cooperation in two main areas - energy and transport. Since then the volume of cargo traffic between the three countries has been increasing rapidly. The transport infrastructure created in previous years, in particular the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, was used for this purpose.

Another presidential summit of the three countries took place on June 5, 2014 in Bodrum after the conclusion of the 4th Summit of the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States. By that time, Ashgabat had completely refocused on gas supplies to China and was not interested in supplies to Europe. In parallel, Azerbaijan and Turkey had been actively involved in the implementation of the TANAP project and viewed Turkmenistan as an important and potential participant in the gas transportation projects for Europe.

However, there had been regular supplies of Turkmen oil via Azerbaijan to Turkey and onwards to European markets, which supported the energy cooperation between the three countries.

In 2017, when Ashgabat decided not to transport oil through the port of Makhachkala to Novorossiysk, the parties discussed the details of increasing Turkmen oil supplies through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline as well. In August 2017, this issue, as well as the transit of Turkmen gas using the transport infrastructure of Azerbaijan and Turkey, was the focus of President Berdymukhamedov's visit to Baku. However, the implementation of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline was not discussed at the meeting. All questions focused around the maritime transportation of oil and gas from Turkmenbashi to Baku and then either through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline or the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway.

On April 19, 2019, a trilateral meeting of the energy ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan was held in Istanbul, where the participants discussed again the prospects for transporting Turkmen energy resources to Europe. Yet the context of the meeting was fundamentally different, with the long-awaited adoption of the Caspian Sea Political and Legal Convention and final preparations for the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)—the final link in the Southern Gas Corridor (SAGC) system. The European Energy Commission, the main negotiator of the Turkmen gas supplies to the EU from Ashgabat, has also stimulated the negotiation process to connect the country to the Southern Gas Corridor infrastructure. This has increased the Turkmen interest in energy cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

New agreements, new perspectives

However, Turkmenistan's readiness to supply significant volumes of gas primarily through the SGC remained questionable for good reason. For example, it was unclear what would be the volume of Turkmen gas offered for export to Europe, given that Ashgabat exported virtually all of its gas to China. In addition, Turkmenistan has an agreement with Beijing on the supply of additional volumes in the planned fourth pipeline route.

Therefore, the meeting in Avaza is important as an attempt to coordinate the options for expanding the Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey energy corridor rather than the transportation of the Turkmen gas to Europe. As for the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, it remains a promising project for Ashgabat. The pipeline has not even been designed yet, and it is still unclear how the construction works will be organised, whether an operational consortium will be created to develop the project, who will be the members of the consortium and how the shares of the owners will be distributed?

We can assume that Ashgabat, Baku and Ankara may focus on these issues soon, given the growing demand for gas in Europe.

Meanwhile, the meeting is also very important politically, as it is thought to demonstrate, primarily to the European Commission, that all three countries remain committed to the idea of trilateral energy cooperation and are working hard on the implementation of projects to supply increasing volumes of the Caspian gas to the EU. At the same time, the parties seem ready to propose other energy projects that could be interesting both to the troika and to the EU.

Notably, the Turkish president said that his country was ready to cooperate with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to develop the Azerbaijani-Turkmen oil and gas field Dostluk in the Caspian Sea. Earlier, the Russian company LukOIL was very interested in the development of Dostluk. However, amid the problems caused by anti-Russian sanctions, the Russian company’s involvement in the project seems to doubtful. By demonstrating its interest in the development of the field, Ankara hopes to make the project interesting for all the members of the troika, which would be an indicator of the practical importance of trilateral cooperation in the energy sector. 

President Erdogan also expressed Ankara's readiness to discuss with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan the issue of importing electricity to Turkey. This proposal seems quite feasible not only because of Turkey's growing demand for electricity, but also in the context of its increasing role as a transit country for electricity transmission to Europe.

Presidents made quite significant initiatives in Avaza, disclosing the essence of negotiations. In particular, President Ilham Aliyev noted the importance of transport corridors linking the countries and the Zangezur transport corridor. "Currently, we actively work on the development of the Zangezur corridor. In the Azerbaijani section of the corridor, the construction of railway lines and motor roads is complete by 40% and 70%, respectively. All these works will be completed in 2024, leading to the birth of a new transport corridor," Ilham Aliyev said at the summit.

The Turkish president recalled the Lapis Lazuli Corridor project, which mainly passes through the territories of all the three countries.

The project was initially designed for cargo transportation from and to Afghanistan and was seen as the main aid route for the country. However, after the Taliban’s raise to power in Kabul and the global events that followed, the project was forgotten. Now, as the international community considers the implementation of large-scale humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people, the project involving Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan is becoming relevant again.

In addition, the Turkish leader hopes for perspective cooperation in the energy sector and the delivery of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey via the Caspian Sea.

The joint declaration signed by the three leaders after the summit placed a special emphasis on the need for joint cooperation in trade, economic, energy, transport and humanitarian spheres.

As far as the latter is concerned, it is not only the Turkic origin of the three neighbouring nations that unites them, but also the fact that Turks, Azerbaijanis and Turkmens all belong to the same branch of the Turkic language family, the Oghuz family.  Thus, President Erdogan particularly underlined the problems associated with the education of future generations of all three nations. He announced an initiative that would enable the youth of the three countries to know each other's language, religion and culture better. President Erdogan said courses will be held annually in Gabala in Azerbaijan and Avaza in Turkmenistan for youth. "This way they will get to know both Gabala and Avaza, have much more knowledge on language, religion, and history of our nations," President Erdogan said.

The three presidents signed the following documents at the summit: Intergovernmental Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation, Intergovernmental Framework Programme for Cooperation in Science, Education and Culture for 2023-2025, Intergovernmental Memorandum of Understanding on the establishment of the Joint Consultative Commission on Customs Cooperation, Interagency Memorandum of Understanding on Energy Cooperation Development, Interagency Memorandum of Understanding on Transport Cooperation Development.

The adoption of these documents shows that the format of cooperation between Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Turkey will be filled with concrete content and will tangibly strengthen the cooperation between the Turkic states.