ANKARA AND DAMASCUS GETTING CLOSER?

Apparently, Türkiye and Syria, which suspended bilateral relations since the outbreak of civil war in the latter in 2011, are going to restore the dialogue. Ankara's engagement with Damascus could have a positive impact on the future course of situation in Syria, which has been engulfed by years of armed conflict.

Waiting for Erdogan-Assad meeting

Since early 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly mentioned the likelihood of holding the first talks with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in twelve years. Earlier, he had offered the Russian President Vladimir Putin to host a trilateral meeting involving the leaders of Türkiye, Syria and Russia. It was also stated that the Turkish-Syrian summit should be preceded by meetings between the heads of special services, military and foreign ministries of both countries.

The normalisation process between Ankara and Damascus started with consultations between the heads of the defence ministries of Türkiye, Syria and Russia in Moscow on December 28. The practical outcome was the agreement to set up a joint trilateral commission.

The military and security services of the troika are expected to hold talks in February. Either way, the event has been announced by Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar. A meeting of foreign ministers is still on the agenda and is expected to precede the talks between Erdogan and Assad.

Thus, we can say that the normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations has started already. In fact, there are assumptions that it could be accelerated, albeit amid the major tragedy that struck both countries in early February.  Experts presume that the largest earthquake in decades in Türkiye and Syria, which claimed thousands of lives, may not only reduce tensions in bilateral relations but also lead to the rapprochement between the two countries. We can remember the 1999 Izmit earthquake, when Greece came to help Türkiye despite major difficulties in bilateral relationships. After the tragedy, which claimed the lives of more than 17,000 people, the dialogue between Ankara and Athens has warmed and lasted several years.

Soon we will see whether the last natural disaster can unite Ankara and Damascus amid common trials and tribulations and bring the Turkish-Syrian confrontation to an end. In the meantime, there are still problems that could hold back to varying degrees the normalisation process between Türkiye and Syria.

Firstly, unlike Ankara, Damascus does not send convincing signals in support of the early Erdogan-Assad meeting. As if fearing a possible volatility of Ankara's position, Damascus has periodically stated that a bilateral summit should be held after the May presidential elections in Türkiye.

Scepticism of opposition

Meanwhile, Damascus constantly underlines the need to eliminate the causes that led to the disruption of the once good neighbourly relations between Syria and Türkiye. Mainly Damascus' rejection of Türkiye's military presence on the Syrian territory and its operations against the Kurdish terrorist organisations in the northern parts of the country.  Moreover, Damascus insists that Ankara stops supporting groups that oppose the Syrian government. Damascus is afraid that the armed opposition groups operating in Turkish-controlled Syrian regions will not agree to surrender and demilitarisation, even after the normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations.

Incidentally, the radical Syrian opposition does give serious cause for such concerns. In any case, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group operating in the Syrian province of Idlib called the direct talks between Damascus and Ankara "a serious deviation from the goals of the Syrian revolution". There have even been mass protests against the normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations in Ankara-influenced northern parts of Syria.

On the other hand, Ankara is taking steps to pacify the Syrian opposition. A meeting between the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and the leading figures of the Syrian opposition's political wing was indicative in this regard. During the meeting, Cavusoglu argued the need for the Erdogan-Assad meeting for the promotion of peace settlement process in Syria.

Overall, the key thing that creates a chance for normalisation of relations between the countries is that the Turkish position is in line with the vital interest of the Syrian government—the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria. Türkiye has never questioned or opposed this approach. Now apparently the background for the Turkish-Syrian negotiation process will be reaching an agreement that combines the suppression of Kurdish terrorist groups threatening Türkiye's security in northern Syria through the establishment of the Syrian government's authority in the territory.

Incidentally, Türkiye is pursuing this process despite serious pressure from the US, which has for years used and supported Kurdish forces in their confrontation with Syria's central government. Washington seems to remain committed to the same stance now, ignoring both Türkiye's security and Syria's sovereignty and territorial unity. In this sense, it is not surprising that US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the US does not recommend anyone to get closer to Damascus. Regarding the prospect of a meeting between the presidents of Türkiye and Syria, the US representative admitted: "We are certainly not in favour of normalisation”, implying the possible establishment of bilateral relations between Ankara and Damascus.

Yes for Ankara, No for Tehran

The Turkish-Syrian normalisation process may involve another element uncomfortable for the US. Turkish President Erdogan supported the inclusion of Iran in the planned trilateral high-level talks between Türkiye, Syria and Russia. According to the Turkish leader, such a format would only contribute to the lasting peace in the region.

Erdogan's initiative was also supported by Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even announced that they had reached a preliminary agreement on Iran's involvement in the trilateral Russia-Türkiye-Syria format. "Indeed, we support the interest of the Turkish president in normalising relations with the president of Syria, the normalisation of relations between the two neighbouring countries in general. We will be ready to develop the relevant work in every possible way," Minister Lavrov said.

The negotiation platform that promotes the quadrilateral format of cooperation is the so-called Astana Platform for Syrian settlement negotiations warranted by Türkiye, Russia and Iran. It can also be assumed that Erdogan’s curtsey towards Tehran, i.e., his proposal to include the Islamic Republic in the Turkish-Syrian-Russian negotiations, was a product of considerations to offset Iranian dissatisfaction with the Russian-Turkish tandem as the only guarantors of the peace settlement in Syria, which has eventually pushed Iran to a secondary position within the settlement process.

However, the Turkish initiative to include Iran into the Ankara-Damascus-Moscow format should not be understood as a sign of overcoming certain existing differences between Türkiye and Iran regarding the Syrian settlement. While for Türkiye the stabilisation of Syria is important in terms of Ankara’s current intention to primarily ensure the return of nearly 4 million Syrian refugees to their homeland, for Iran the Assad government has been an attractive tool for maintaining Tehran's regional influence. The latter is jealous of the expected normalisation of relations between Ankara and Damascus because it fears the minimisation of Iran's influence in Syria's post-conflict settlement. Moreover, Tehran has even applied sort of preventive pressure on Damascus in order to cool possible pro-Turkish sentiments of the Syrian political leadership. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tehran has suspended the provision of Iranian oil to Damascus on preferential terms, thus forcing the Syrians to pay market prices for the fuel imported from Iran.

Thus, the normalisation of relations between Türkiye and Syria, whatever the configuration of interstate relations in the region, will contribute to the peace process both in Syria and in the Middle East. In addition, Ankara finds this prospect particularly attractive, as it can become one of the leading partners of Syria, which promises considerable dividends for the Turkish politics and business circles.