ECHO OF AFTERSHOCKS

Amid the recent catastrophic earthquake in Türkiye, there are speculations that the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections may be postponed. It has become one of the most debated topics in Turkish politics, which undoubtedly has a significant impact on the pre-election situation as a whole. Despite the predominance of discussions on this topic in the local media, the possibility of postponing the elections has become a priority in the Turkish political discourse in recent weeks.

In response to speculations, sources within the ruling party said that postponing elections to a date later than the date strictly defined in the law as June 18 would require amending the Turkish constitution. Apparently, this makes any decision to postpone the vote to a later date impossible.

Opposition critical but empty-handed

The opposition accuses the authorities of having encouraged the issue in the media, as the earthquake has led to increased criticism of the single candidate from the ruling tandem, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In addition to the traditional set of complaints against the authorities concerning purely economic problems, such as the volatility of the Turkish currency, the need to raise living standards, the high level of unemployment, there is also corruption in the construction sector, which has caused enormous destruction. This sector is largely responsible for the deaths of more than forty thousand Turkish citizens.

According to the Turkish Ministry of Urban Development and Environment, at least 56,000 buildings in earthquake-affected provinces in Türkiye have been destroyed or cannot be  repaired. Over 216,000 homeless people had to leave their towns and villages in search for better living conditions.

The opposition considers the ongoing measures of Turkish authorities in response to the consequences of the earthquake insufficient. It believes the lawsuits against unscrupulous developers and heads of local administrations responsible for issuing building permits are launched to give an impression of large-scale court proceedings, while a large number of individuals, including influential ones, have yet to be held accountable in any way.

The Turkish opposition is also unhappy with the results of a massive telethon held in the country. It is alleged that 90 of 115 billion Turkish liras raised in the live telethon were donated by state institutions.

Authorities respond to this criticism with their own arguments. For example, the head of the Central Bank has clarified that donations from state institutions were originally intended for other purposes. After channelising the amount to the needs of the quake victims, they will be used exclusively for reconstruction works or meeting the priority needs of the population. Therefore, claims that the government is simply shifting money from one pocket into another are totally inappropriate.

Single opposition candidate: what will he be like?

Just two days after the devastating earthquakes, when search and rescue works were in full swing, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP), issued the following statement: "I refuse to look at what happened from a political point of view or the government’s point of view. I will not meet with Erdogan on any grounds." Some of his supporters disagreed with the statement, as they think Kilicdaroglu had broken the spirit of national solidarity after the earthquake.

Either way, the opposition seems confused. In particular, it has not yet presented a plan of actions to deal with the consequences of the "disaster of the century", which coincides with the 2023 election campaign. Accusations against the authorities may merely be a way to hide the lack of real proposals to get the country out of the current situation.

In contrast to the authorities, who have promised to rebuild the devastated towns and villages within a year and provide 270,000 homeless people with temporary housing, the opposition is increasingly talking about elections, which is perceived ambivalently in society.

Among other things, the main issue on the opposition's agenda is the identity of a single candidate to represent it in the elections.

On February 18, six opposition parties in Türkiye met to discuss the earthquake situation in the country. Their leaders confirmed that, according to the constitution, elections must be held before June 18, with little chance of being held on May 14. However, the opposition said they would only announce their candidate once the election date had been officially set, stressing that they were categorically against postponing it.

Meanwhile, without waiting for the name of the single opposition candidate, AKP, Türkiye's ruling party, has already begun to regroup its forces.

One of the nominees for the highest office, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, said he would like to see the chairman of CHP, Kilicdaroglu, as Türkiye's new president. At a ground-breaking ceremony for ten parks in the Turkish capital, Yavas addressed Kilicdaroglu and said: "We hope to see you at the opening of these parks as a new president!"

Earlier, Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, also expressed his support for the CHP leader’s candidacy. However, there is increasing criticism of the opposition administration of Istanbul.

Interestingly, while the opposition and several media outlets in Türkiye blame the government for Istanbul's unpreparedness for the earthquake, the pro-government media, on the other hand, blame the opposition mayor of Istanbul, who represents CHP.

Mayor Imamoglu is blamed for reducing the proportion of Istanbul’s budget allocated for earthquake prevention from 5.5% in 2018 to 1.6% in 2023. Allegedly, Imamoglu has also cut the budget of the Earthquake Risk Management Department by 65% earlier in his reign. This has had a negative impact on the quality of housing. Amid the increasing criticism, the outcome of Imamoglu's campaigning as the leading opposition party's candidate seems dubious.

It is also quite possible that the party elite decided to take a pre-emptive step to prevent intra-party disagreement on such an important issue.

Pro-Kurdish Democratic Party of Peoples (HDP), which is part of the left-wing Coalition of Labour and Freedom, announced that it would nominate its own candidate. Many experts believe that at some point HDP will withdraw its candidacy if it manages to agree with the six parties on a candidate that would satisfy everyone. However, party co-chairperson Pervyn Buldan immediately added that she was urging the opposition bloc to drop its candidate and vote in favour of their representative.

In fact, this political bargaining contributes to the fragmentation of the opposition, which adversely affects its image as a whole.

Contrary to ratings

Under the current circumstances, opposition leaders have largely expressed excessive optimism bordering on euphoria about the outcome of the forthcoming elections. Many seem to think that the position of President Erdogan has been shaken so much that it is beyond repair.

One of the closest advisers to Meral Aksener, leader of IYI Party, made an ironic remark that "Erdogan has the privilege of choosing the day of his defeat". Either way, up until the February 6 earthquakes, the polls gave the opposition a clear lead. According to the published results, the six leading opposition parties together garnered between 45 and 47 per cent of the votes. Whereas President Erdogan's party, albeit the absolute leader in the number of votes cast, lagged behind rivals who could have surpassed it by combining their ratings.

We should bear in mind that parliamentary elections will run in parallel with the presidential ones. And such ratings should be rather alarming for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Earlier, opinion polls indicated that the vote would be the AKP’s toughest electoral test not only because of the earthquake, but also because of the rising cost of living and depreciation of the lira in recent years.

Remarkably, the earthquake-hit region has traditionally supported Erdogan. In the last presidential election held in 2018, AKP received 55% of the votes, while the ruling coalition had the same level of support in the parliamentary elections.

Observers argue that disasters and catastrophes have always influenced the voting behaviour.

After a massive earthquake in 1999 claiming the lives of 17,000 people in north-western Türkiye, criticism was a crucial factor in the then government's decline in popularity, which helped the AKP win the 2002 elections.

There is also fierce debate between the government and the opposition over whether Erdogan can run again, having been president since 2014 and having served his second term.

According to the constitution, the Turkish head of state may only be eligible to stand for election if it takes place before June.

The constitution limits the possibility of being elected president to two terms. But there can be an exception—if parliament calls an early election before the second term expires. Thus, if Erdogan were to run later, the constitution would have to be changed.

Either way, both supporters and opponents of President Erdogan agree that he is an experienced and insightful politician who is not going to give up so easily amid the difficulties. After all, his name is even associated with the phenomenon of the so-called election economics.

On the eve of the election, the Turkish president allowed millions of workers under retirement age to start receiving pensions, doubled the minimum wage, proposed a draft law to write off debts and even announced the return of 10,000 suspended driving licences.

Erdogan's massive spending programme has begun to pay off. In early February, polls showed that his support reached a two-year high. If it were not for the earthquake, he would have been able to relax before the election.

The earthquake has upset all the plans of the country's leadership. It has become the only agenda in Türkiye likely to dominate domestic debates in the future.

Experts believe that all politicians will be assessed by the level of their performance over the next three months.

Erdogan may even have an advantage over his opposition rivals in this sense if he takes effective steps to rebuild what has been destroyed. He has already promised to build homes for millions of homeless citizens within a year. The Turkish authorities have also issued more than 100 arrest warrants in connection with violations of construction regulations.

President Erdogan is now taking obvious advantage of the fact that the opposition has yet to agree on its candidate and pushed back the deadline to come to an agreement because of the earthquake. No one still knows what the response will be. In the meantime, the country is getting closer to the elections each passing day.