TRAGEDY AS OPPORTUNITY

Powerful earthquake in southeastern Türkiye on February 6, 2023 caused widespread destruction in ten provinces and killed more than 40,000 people. The tragedy is considered to be the largest natural disaster of the century to date.

At the same time, the humanitarian catastrophe caused unprecedented unity and solidarity at the international level. During the first days after the tragedy, more than 80 countries dispatched more than 7,000 rescuers to Türkiye. There were campaigns for collecting food, clothes and other material aid for the victims. Türkiye has so far received offers of aid from more than 100 countries. Politicians in most countries have called for support for Türkiye on this difficult day.

In addition to friendly countries that dispatched aid and rescuers to Türkiye after the earthquake, there were also countries such as Greece, Armenia and Israel. They have maintained cold and sometimes hostile relations with Ankara over some time. However, immediately after the incident all three countries sent rescue teams to the disaster area. Furthermore, despite the cooling of relations between Ankara and the European Union in recent years, the latter launched the largest humanitarian aid campaign in its history for Türkiye.

Of course, these actions are likely to have a positive impact on political ties between the countries. According to many observers, after the devastating event, Türkiye will intensify efforts to reconcile and soften relations with the aforementioned countries.

There are similar examples in history. The 1999 Istanbul earthquake, for example, had a positive impact on Greek-Turkish relations, easing tensions between Athens and Ankara. In addition, in the same year, Türkiye was selected as a candidate for full membership of the European Union. It is expected that the recent tragedy also strengthens the international community's solidarity with Türkiye and the Turkish people, which will certainly have an impact on political relations.

Reconciliation with Greece

The first signs of softening of relations right after the earthquake were observed between the relations of Ankara with Athens. The Greek government sent a rescue team to Türkiye upon receiving first reports. At the same time, a number of relief actions have been organised in the country. Athens has so far supplied 40,000 tons of humanitarian aid and dispatched 67 rescue workers to Türkiye.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias became the first European official to visit the disaster zone and tour the ruins of the destroyed houses with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. The Turkish side welcomed and appreciated the news broadcast on Greek state television accompanied by footage from the earthquake zone and Turkish music.

In his statement following the meeting with Nikos Dendias, Mevlut Cavusoglu said that the Turkish people would never forget the help of the Greek people and government, an event that opened a new page in relations between the two countries.

However, one can expect these relations be resolved soon, as both sides have a number of serious political and economic issues. There are several reasons behind the cool relations between the two nations. The first one is border problems. In fact, the problem is almost as old as the history of the Republic of Türkiye. However, there have been many cases over the last hundred years in which the two countries have maintained fairly good relations despite disagreements on border issues.

In other words, it is possible to normalise the relations between Türkiye and Greece. Tensions between the two countries usually occur during a period of rising nationalist appeals by radical parties, that is, usually for political reasons.

The second main reason for recent tensions is disagreements over the hydrocarbon resources discovered on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean, as well as issues related to exploitation and supply of these resources to the world market. Athens and Ankara have yet to find  common ground on issues such as the division of oil and gas fields in the vicinity of Cyprus, the definition of the coastline and the laying of a seabed pipeline to Europe. Rather, both nations have been on opposite fronts, with relations deteriorating to the point of armed conflict.

That said, it is clear that these differences and problems cannot be resolved by radical appeals or war. At some point it will be necessary to sit down at the negotiating table and find a common language. Thus, the February 6 earthquake gives Ankara and Athens yet another chance to put things in order and get back to the negotiating table. And both sides seem to realise this.

Thus, the Greek authorities made an eloquent gesture towards Ankara. First, a rescue team and humanitarian aid were sent to Türkiye, followed by the Greek foreign minister’s visit to the disaster zone to express moral support for the Turkish people. This was followed by a phone call from the Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressing his condolences and support for Türkiye.

All these moves are in fact very important steps towards reconciliation. It seems that Athens is interested in easing tensions with Türkiye. Ankara acknowledges this. Of course, it is always possible to get together and come to an understanding—it’s enough to take a rational approach to events, abandoning radical slogans and appeals.

Greek minister Dendias' call for EU member states to increase support for Türkiye at the February 20 meeting of EU foreign ministers can also be seen as part of these moves towards reconciliation. We can assume that in the coming months we will feel a positive atmosphere in relations between Athens and Ankara.

The question of Cyprus amid Greek-Turkish relations

By and large, the most painful issue that has left a deep mark on relations between the two countries remains the question of Cyprus. Next year will mark half a century since the military intervention on the island, which led to the division of Cyprus into two separate states—the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and South Cyprus. Formally there are two authorities on the island, with its northern and southern parts controlled by Türkiye and Greece, respectively. Greek Cyprus is officially recognised by the international community as an independent state.

UN and EU efforts to unify the island governments into a single state have so far been unsuccessful. Naturally, the Turkish and Greek authorities have more influence in this matter than the relationship between the Turkish and Greek populations of the island.

Incidentally, the second round of presidential elections was held in South Cyprus on February 12, with former foreign minister Nikos Christodoulidis winning the race. He will become the country's eighth president with 51.09% of votes. In his speech delivered immediately after the announcement of the election results, the new president said that his main goal was to unify the island, and he would try to bring Ankara and the Turkish Cypriots back to the negotiating table. However, the newly elected President Christodoulides is also credited with saying that "the Turkish occupation of the island must end".

According to a number of experts, Western countries will intensify diplomatic efforts to resolve the Cyprus problem this year. However, any progress in this direction can be expected only after the elections in Greece and Türkiye scheduled for this year. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who visited both countries in February, also hinted at this. He said that the political leaders of these countries should avoid harsh accusations before the elections. Recalling that they are allies of the US, the Secretary of State invited the parties to talks, while praising the favourable atmosphere that has been created in the region since the earthquake.

Greece is planning to hold elections in April-May this year. According to Turkish laws, the elections are due to take place in May-June, although the exact date has not yet been announced. This means that even if elections in both countries take place as scheduled, it is not possible to expect the beginning of the negotiation process on the Cyprus issue, and in general between Greece and Türkiye, before the autumn.

It also seems doubtful that Ankara would prioritise the question of Cyprus as well as the exploitation of energy resources in the Mediterranean Sea amid the emerging situation after the quake. On the other hand, it is quite possible that the Greek elections and forming a new government will take months, as the level of public support for the party of incumbent Prime Minister Mitsotakis does not exceed 30%. In other words, if the current government succeeds in the upcoming elections, it will take some time to form a coalition government.

Even given the current favourable atmosphere in Greek-Turkish relations, it is unlikely that such a serious and somewhat bottomless issue such as the question of Cyprus becomes a priority in negotiations between Athens and Ankara.

What about the rest of Türkiye’s neighbours?

Compared to Greece, Israel's and Armenia's relations with Türkiye can hardly be called cold. Last year, thanks to Ankara's efforts, it was possible to put back on track the relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara, which had deteriorated in 2010. Both nations restored their embassies, the Israeli president visited Türkiye and the Turkish foreign minister visited Tel Aviv. Israeli authorities were among the first to send a large rescue team to Türkiye after the earthquake. Ankara certainly welcomed the move, and we can assume that the rapprochement between Ankara and Tel Aviv will continue.

A similar friendly gesture was shown by the Armenian authorities. Ankara praised Yerevan for sending a rescue team to Türkiye. Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglu announced an agreement with Yerevan to speed up the normalisation process. However, unlike Israel, there are more serious problems in Armenian-Turkish relations that will require more time and effort to resolve.

Overall, the earthquake in Türkiye, or "catastrophe of the century" as the Turks themselves call it, will affect Ankara's regional policy. It demonstrated once again that humanity can at any moment be challenged with far greater and harsher tests than those resulting from political disagreements, which can and should be solved by joint efforts. The earthquake clearly showed the futility of political problems compared to global cataclysms, the more serious and momentous issues challenging the humanity. In this sense, the February 6 earthquake will accelerate the redefinition of Türkiye's regional policy.