SOFT POWER OF AZERBAIJAN

Many experts point out that the outcome of the 44-day Garabagh war is not limited to a change in the territorial balance. Azerbaijan is actively restoring liberated lands, planning to export the green energy generated there. The world's leading military academies are studying the experience of using drones and the storming of Shusha from the rocky cliffs of Cıdır Düzü.

Among other things, the 44-day war also destroyed the myth that local conflicts in the former Soviet Union have no military solution. Azerbaijan was the first to demonstrate that a military solution was possible. Especially if negotiations do not yield any results.

Today many media outlets state that after the military victory, Azerbaijan is now confidently pursuing a new policy of diplomatic settlement of conflicts. It was demonstrated at the recent Munich Security Conference, in particular one of its panel discussions “Moving Mountains? Building Security in the South Caucasus”, a lively debate between the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian.

Dual-track solution

Ilham Aliyev clearly and unambiguously drew red lines, marking the course of negotiations. As he noted, “there is a shared understanding that there is a need for a dual-track approach to the regional situation. One of the tracks is peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The other one is Azerbaijan's relationship with the Armenian population of Garabagh.” As explained by President Aliyev, “this dual-track solution in fact separates our negotiations with Armenia from our internal issues, such as communication with Armenians in Garabagh. It has been agreed with our international partners that the rights and guarantees of the Armenian minority in Garabagh will be discussed. We are ready for this. But with those representatives of the Armenian community who have lived, who were born and have lived all their lives in Garabagh. Not with someone who has been exported from Russia to take a leadership position there. Perhaps ‘exported’ is not the right term. I would probably prefer ‘smuggled in’.” In other words, President Aliyev once again stressed that there would be no mention of Karabakh in a future peace treaty with Armenia. The issue is closed and is no longer negotiable.

And then, in his interview with Azerbaijani journalists, President Aliyev outlined another significant shift: Baku proposed the establishment of checkpoints on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border on a bilateral basis. "I said [at the meeting with the US Secretary of State A. Blinken and the Armenian Prime Minister Pashinian] that it would be better if Armenia and Azerbaijan established checkpoints on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border bilaterally—that is, on both ends of the Zangezur corridor and on the border between the Lachin district and Armenia," Aliyev said.

In essence, the Azerbaijani president has outlined the new realities of negotiation process, which should move the region even further away from the conflict situation. A peace agreement without a separate reference to Garabagh, checkpoints on transit roads instead of peacekeeping posts are what make a truly lasting and durable peace different from a ceasefire. The proposal to set up checkpoints amid the ongoing picket of Azerbaijani environmental activists would at least improve the situation on the Lachin road. This topic should be analysed in more detail, especially amid the recent decision of the UN International Court of Justice.

In the name of law!

It was expected that the verdict of the UN International Court of Justice on lawsuits put forward by Baku and Yerevan would cause controversy and debates. Armenia immediately tried to claim victory... However, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained that the verdict was not actually in favour of Yerevan. The International Court of Justice did not rule anything that must be exercised immediately, it only urged. Legally, this is a huge difference.

Despite all resistance from Armenia and its lawyers, two of Yerevan's three demands - on "interim measures concerning accusations of Azerbaijan's organisation and support of protests" and on "immediate full restoration and refraining from disruption of natural gas supplies..." - were rejected. That is, the court recognised that the picket on the Lachin-Shusha-Khankendi road was not organised and controlled by Azerbaijani authorities, but was a civil action. After the verdict, the former demands to Baku to immediately open the road hung in limbo. Although there was an appeal to Azerbaijan to take measures to open the Lachin road, in reality this was not what Armenia was expecting. Moreover, the terms “free” and “all” were excluded from the final verdict on Armenia's demand for the opening of “unimpeded traffic” along the Lachin road. In other words, Armenia was not given the right to carry any cargo along the Lachin road.

The verdict does not contradict Azerbaijan's plans to install checkpoints. In addition, the International Court of Justice reiterated its call to refrain from any action that might aggravate or expand the dispute between the two countries. Under the December 2021 verdict, Armenia is still obliged to take urgent measures to prevent incitement and propaganda of racial hatred against Azerbaijanis.

Separatism minus Vardanian

The main bad news for the Armenian side is probably that separatist leader Araik Harutyunian dismissed state minister Ruben Vardanian, a Russian criminal oligarch whom Azerbaijan categorically refused to negotiate with.

Vardanian's possible resignation has long been discussed in the region. Experts believe that he has failed on all counts. Instead of consolidating the people of Garabagh, he has exacerbated the rivalry between the local clans. Instead of playing a role of a wallet for separatists and economic successes, he distributed pasta and rice coupons. Instead of reviving the so-called Garabagh movement, vulnerability to external pressure.

Vardanian's main trump card, the belief that he had very serious connections in Moscow, has also disappeared. After the state minister, despite all the cries and hysterics, could neither open the Khojaly airport, nor forcefully disperse the picket of Azerbaijani environmental activists, it only undermined his credibility in Khankendi and ruined his chances of becoming the second Ivanishvili in the Armenian political field. Azerbaijan put Vardanian in such a position that even the authors of the Vardanian project considered it best to remove their protégé from Khankendi.

We can make assumptions and put forward versions of how Vardanian's resignation will affect the internal political balance of power in Armenia itself and the balance of different clans and factions in Khankendi. But in fact, Azerbaijan pushed through Vardanian's resignation. This was the strongest blow to the prestige of the entire Armenian leadership. The demonstration of Azerbaijan's soft power was so convincing that now they find themselves in a very difficult position in Yerevan and even in Khankendi, as they wonder how they can explain and interpret the events in a more or less digestible form.

Operation Intercept of the Russian diplomacy

Amid the above developments, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov paid a visit to Baku. The formal occasion was seemingly unrelated to Garabagh - the first anniversary of the signing of the Moscow declaration on alliance cooperation. Meanwhile, Russian diplomacy in the South Caucasus is now making serious efforts to intercept the initiative to mediate relations between Baku and Yerevan, since the EU has effectively failed mediation efforts thanks to France and Armenia. In Munich, the EU President met with both Aliyev and Pashinian, but individually, no trilateral format. Washington is also trying to get involved in the mediation process, but it is not that active yet. In such a situation, Russian diplomacy has a good chance to take the lead again, especially since Russian peacekeepers are deployed in the region. Unlike the inarticulate European observers, which Lavrov called "illegitimate", both sides are ready to interact with the Russian peacekeepers. However, much depends on whether Russia can bring Armenia to the negotiating table, which has again opted for a tactic of delays in the negotiation process.

Either way, speaking about the possibility of a trilateral meeting of foreign ministers, minister Lavrov said that "last December an agreement was reached to hold another meeting of our colleagues in Russia. Jeyhun Bayramov recalled further developments. Our Armenian colleagues said they would not be able to attend. We have confirmed our readiness to hold such a meeting. The Azerbaijani side has also expressed its readiness. The Armenian side has stated that it has no objection to this, but has not yet given its final consent".

If Armenia derails Russian mediation efforts again, the political cost for Yerevan can be quite high.