RIGHT TO PEACE

General Carl von Clausewitz's famous statement "War is the continuation of politics by other means" has become a classic. However, the use of military means is a priori a last minute choice. It makes sense to resort to it when all other political, legal and diplomatic levers have proved to be ineffective.

This is the policy that Azerbaijan has been demonstrating in Karabakh. Like the events following the incident at the Khankendi-Turshsu road.

Dangerous smuggling... under the cover of the RPC?

Those who believe this information split the post-war phase of events in and around Karabakh into "before" and "after" are probably right. According to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, "we received an operational report about the transportation of military equipment, ammunition and personnel from the Republic of Armenia to the territory of Azerbaijan temporarily hosting the Russian Peacekeeping Contingent (RPC) using the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu road. In the morning of March 5, in order to verify the information, units of the Azerbaijani Army attempted to detain and check the vehicles carrying out illegal military operations. However, they came under fire from the opposite side. As a result of the exchange of fire, there were casualties on both sides. The details emerged later: two casualties on the Azerbaijani side and three on the Armenian side. Video and photo footage leaked online proved that an UAZ stopped by Azerbaijani soldiers was carrying weapons, including assault rifles and a box of ammunition.

Separatists were quick to launch their own version: bad Azerbaijanis fired at one of the vehicles of the passport and visa service of the Nagorno-Karabakh police. Something similar appeared in the press release of RPC. This raised questions both in Baku and beyond which many found uncomfortable. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense reminded that the communication between the zone of temporary deployment of RPC and Armenia is provided through the Lachin corridor. We just add that the same road is open for humanitarian traffic as well. Why did the UAZ take a different route? What was a car with Armenian plate number and laden with arms doing in Azerbaijan? And what about the alleged passport and visa service of the unrecognised separatist entity?

The questions were addressed not only to the separatists, but also to the Russian peacekeepers. Why are the armed groups of separatists still operating in the region more than two years after the deployment of the RPC in Khankendi? Why do not the RPC prevent the illegal transit of weapons, ammunition and mines using its own checkpoints on the Lachin road? How can they explain the shocking footage of Russian peacekeepers escorting Armenian trucks with the dangerous load?

Moscow remains silent, as was the case after the fragments of missiles Iskanders were discovered in Shusha. But this in no way exempts them from political responsibility, especially under the current circumstances.

Incident amid dialogue

The incident on the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu road occurred shortly after the meeting between the Azerbaijani negotiator, Ramin Mammadli, and representatives of the Armenian community of Karabakh. Experts closely observed the meeting, which is quite logical. After forcing Ruben Vardanian to resign, Azerbaijan renewed the dialogue with the Armenian community of Karabakh in full compliance with President Ilham Aliyev's statement at the Munich meeting, where the head of state outlined two vectors of expected negotiations. The first is a peace treaty with Armenia, where Karabakh is no longer mentioned; the second is the discussions on integrating the Karabakh Armenians into the Azerbaijani society. Baku categorically refused to discuss anything with the "exported" Russian criminal oligarch Ruben Vardanian and succeedeed.

As expected, the meeting was welcomed by mediators from Russia, the US, and the EU. However, it caused an obvious confusion among the separatists. They paused first, then tried to pretend that no meeting ever took place. Finally, they issued a press release confirming the meeting, but claiming the absence of any discussions on integration. As if the Azerbaijanis tried to discuss something like this, but their representatives did not allow it!

Well, we'll refrain from making nasty comments about the obvious parallels with a similar statement made by Artsrun Hovannisian during the 44-day war about the "tactical retreat". It is important that the renewed dialogue shows the change in the mood of Armenians in Khankendi. They start to realise that there will be no return to 1988. And that they will have to integrate into the Azerbaijani society on the conditions of Baku, that is, without administrative autonomy. Plus they can forget about the notorious Miatsum project once and for all. And the most unpleasant thing for nationalists is that there are a lot of people in Khankendi, Aghdere and Khojavand who are ready to accept this option. The 44-day war finally closed the question of the Miatsum. From the beginning all the dreams about annexing Karabakh to Armenia have been based only on brute force. Today, when this argument is no longer valid, it is time to get smart and build future based on realities rather than failed fantasies. As a result, there is a latent panic in the interim RPC zone. The separatist leadership was not prepared for such a turn of events. Now they do not know what to do except bowing to Baku. What if Baku holds them accountable for what they did? Shall they continue to insist on their position? But what will be the response then, especially today?

Reformatting diplomatically

The Armenian leadership realises that the country is suffering a diplomatic defeat following its military defeat on the battlefield. Speaking at the Baku Global Forum, President Ilham Aliyev said: "Conflicts can be resolved in two ways: peacefully and non-peacefully. We have tried hard to solve the conflict with Armenia through peaceful means". However, Armenia had ignored the UN Security Council resolutions on Karabakh, showing disrespect for international law and the community. Noting that Azerbaijan found the OSCE Minsk Group willing to freeze the situation, President Aliyev continued: "But we objected. We did what we felt we had to do, using our right to self-defense, the UN Charter, in particular Article 51. We liberated our territories by force. This was our legitimate right." Azerbaijan is advocating the peaceful means of conflict resolution today as well. Moreover, Russia, the US and the EU are also actively joining the settlement process between Baku and Yerevan. EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar and his US colleague Louis L. Bono make shuttle trips in the region, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov visited Baku recently. Both Bono and Klaar agree that the Lachin road should only be used for the transport of humanitarian goods, and that Azerbaijan's concerns about illegal transit are well founded.

Finally—the mediators are well aware of this—Baku is dictating the agenda in the current situation. After Azerbaijan's victory in the 44-day war, the process of geopolitical reformatting began in the region, Baku's role and reputation in the international arena increased. These facts cannot be ignored.

But apparently, there are forces both within and outside the region that are not interested in peace. That is why Jafar Huseynzade, the head of Azerbaijan's representation to NATO, stated that Armenia was continuing to transport troops through the alternative Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu dirt road into the Karabakh economic region of Azerbaijan with the support of Russian peacekeepers and warned: "The deliberate violation of the Trilateral Statement … can provoke a resumption of hostilities."

In this case Armenia is unlikely to stand a chance of revenge by force.