ISSUE No. 1

On May 14, Türkiye will hold presidential and parliamentary elections that will take place at a difficult time for the country. This year also marks the centenary of the republic. Therefore, the elections will demonstrate the strength of the future course of the country, as well as the choice of the Turkish people. They will determine whether conservative forces remain in the country or give way to new ones.

Two main contenders in the elections will be the Republican Alliance, led by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), and the National Alliance represented by the main opposition parties. The names of candidates from the ruling and opposition blocs are already known. These will be incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu, respectively.

As a rule, the election race in Türkiye is between candidates from the main political parties. That is, candidates not supported by the main political parties cannot be favourites in elections. In general, the parties have a stable percentage of the vote.

A growing number of observers are therefore focusing their attention on specific groups that political parties and major candidates are trying to win, knowing that they will largely determine the fate of the upcoming elections in Türkiye. There are currently two such groups: young citizens born after 1997, also known as Generation Z, and the Kurds. Let us take a closer look at the situation.

Kurds

There are no precise data on the number of Kurdish population in Türkiye. But the electorate of the left-wing pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) is one of the main indicators for estimating the number of Kurdish voters. Note that not all Kurds in the country support the HDP.

In the last parliamentary elections held in 2018, the party received 11.7% of the vote. In all opinion polls conducted in recent months, the number of votes cast in favour of the HDP ranges between 8-13%, making the party and in fact Kurdish voters one of the decisive groups in the upcoming elections.

The HDP is known to be sharply opposed to the incumbent government. In this sense, it is very likely that the party will go to the elections with its own candidate and support Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round.

However, this does not mean that all Kurds will cast their votes to the HDP or CHP, as part of Türkiye's Kurdish electorate is particularly religious and conservative. Before the 2015 elections, the conservative wing of the Kurds voted for the AKP. However, the government's hardline nationalist rhetoric changed the direction of Kurdish votes in favour of the HDP.

The ruling AKP is now actively working to re-engage conservative Kurdish groups in response to the CHP, which has succeeded in garnering support from the Kurdish left thanks to the HDP. The AKP's pre-election alliance with the radical Islamist Huda-Par party, which is popular in Türkiye's southeastern provinces, is one of the steps to attract religiously conservative Kurds. In addition, pre-election contacts with religious communities with significant Kurdish influence, particularly in Adiyaman, indicate a strong desire by Erdogan's government to win the votes of Kurdish voters. At least the votes of conservative Kurds.

The 2023 election nightmare - Generation Z

In general, Generation Z is a group of voters born in 1997-2012. According to official data, the total number of voters in Türkiye this year will reach 62.4-64 million. Of these, 9 million people, that is, 13% of voters, are representatives of the Generation Z. And around 6-7 million of these young people will be voting for the first time.

All political forces in Türkiye pay special attention to this particular group of voters because they stand out from the rest because of their dynamism. Moreover, unlike the previous age groups, they have no political experience, prefer not to get involved in politics and live according to the requirements of the new era.

Whereas among the previous generation only 5 per cent of young people had mothers with a higher education, this figure now reaches about 25 per cent. In other words, these future voters come from families with a high percentage of educated people. This is one of the factors influencing their choice.

According to surveys of Turkish youth aged 18-23, members of this age group are most interested in topics such as social justice, migration, election of decent staff and transparent economy. They are less interested in foreign policy, national industry or issues related to historical and ideological background.

It is known that the most challenging issues for the AKP government are socio-economic ones. These particularly include the sharp depreciation of the Turkish national currency, soaring inflation and the declining purchasing power of the population in recent years.

According to Murad Geziçi, head of the well-known Turkish polling organisation Geziçi Research Centre, although most young voters are not happy with the incumbent government, an overwhelming number of them are not committed to any ideology either, many do not trust the opposition. According to statistical data, 80 per cent of voters from this generation do not want to vote for the AKP. But it does not mean that all of them have already made their choice.

Mehmet Ali Kulat, director of MAK Consulting, claims that 70% of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 support the opposition. He believes that the middle-aged voters are more focused on implementing infrastructure projects like building hospitals and roads, while young people prefer to compare the real economic situation in the country with their foreign counterparts.

Regarding the distribution of Generation Z votes by party, an ORC survey found that 13% of Generation Z representatives said they would vote for the AKP, while 34% would vote for CHP. As we can see, not all the members of Generation Z support the opposition. Rising unemployment, government measures to restrict social media and increased government control over the Internet have caused discontent among young people in recent years.

It is also interesting that a large proportion of Turkish youth do not trust either the government or the country's judicial system. Thus, according to the results of another survey, 50.7% of young people expect that the national economy will deteriorate next year, 35.1% believe it will remain in its current state and only 14.2% hope that it will improve. And 78.7% of young people said they did not trust the judicial system at all.

Remarkably, the institution most trusted by the Turkish youth is the army, although it is considered an apolitical institution. Meanwhile, it is interesting to observe marginal interest among the Turkish youth to issues related to "identity politics". Identity differences are no longer an obstacle for them.

However, tensions between Turks and Kurds caused by terrorist acts by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), as well as the anger at Syrian refugees in general also affect the young people. Therefore, it is highly likely that these themes will be used to manipulate them.

Most young people under the age of 30 have spent a significant part of their lives under Erdogan's rule. Most of them therefore see the AKP as the source of the country's troubles and shortcomings. Only 15-18% of these voters still support the ruling party on ideological and political grounds. According to the Türkiye Gençlik Araştırması report, 48% of young people do not trust the country's president and 56% do not trust politicians in general.

In the US, for example, 25% of Generation Z youth do not participate in elections at all. In other countries, including Türkiye, this figure may be higher. Incidentally, due to their age, none of the main presidential candidates in Türkiye are particularly attractive to young people. There is a risk that a segment of the population ready to vote for any candidate but the government candidate will not participate in the elections at all.

Another important factor is that young people value material goods more than others. This is particularly noticeable among 15- to 25-year-olds amid the economic downturn, inflation and the pandemic in recent years. This indicates the significant role that economic issues will play in their choices.

Conclusion

The election campaign in Türkiye has already started and will last more than 40 days. It is expected to be particularly dynamic. However, various surveys form well in advance the general opinion on the electoral support of parties and their candidates. The experience of the past years indicates that the outcome of the May popular vote will largely determine the campaign activities of candidates in the important pre-election period.

For the AKP government, the country's economic downturn in recent years, dramatic devaluation of the national currency, as well as the impact of earthquakes and floods in an election year are considered serious disadvantages. But the authorities see their own strong party-organisational support and President Erdogan's long experience in elections as strong enough trump cards to overcome these negative factors.

As noted above, a number of challenging questions still remain unanswered, both for the authorities and the opposition. Among them the ethnic Kurds and first-time voters, also known as Generation Z, are particularly interesting. Thus, the votes of the organisationally represented ethnic Kurds and the unorganised new generation of young Turks not particularly interested in politics could be decisive in the upcoming elections.

Remarkably, both of Türkiye's main presidential candidates are considered elderly. The AKP chairman and incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is 69. His main rival, the CHP chairman and single opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu is 74. So one of the main challenges for both candidates is to secure the support of the young people. But polls seem to indicate that a significant proportion of young people remain undecided.

Turkish political analysts and experts are warning about the "children of the Computer Age" mostly uninterested in politics and elections. Although it is their choice that can have a decisive influence on the outcome of the vote. Especially since the youth means energy, power, and most importantly, the future. We will see what older candidates can offer to attract young people in the coming weeks.