POLITICAL AFTERSHOCK

It has been 12 years since the start of the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR). It looks like 2023 is the year that we will witness a major turnaround in the course of this protracted Middle Eastern conflict. The reason is the start of the reconciliation process between Arab heads of state and the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Although for some of them the process began several years earlier.

Experts believe that the situation around Syria has changed dramatically since the February 6 earthquake. There are forces in a number of European countries that do not mind the restoration of relations with Damascus and once again recognise Bashar al-Assad as the head of the Syrian state. But the most important issue is the the attitude of Arab states towards Syria.

Arabian reconciliation

Following the 6 February earthquake, Bashar al-Assad held telephone conversations with Presidents of Egypt and Algeria – Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi and Abdelmajid Tebboun. He also visited Oman for the first time since the conflict. Assad also paid an official visit to the UAE in mid-March. This is his second (the first was in 2018) visit to the country since the start of the Syrian conflict.

If everything goes smoothly, the al-Assad government will be invited to the summit of the League of Arab States (LAS) scheduled for May 19 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The kingdom's foreign minister, Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, has confirmed the ongoing talks with Damascus in this direction. Under favourable circumstances, either President Assad himself or another senior Syrian government official will attend the LAS summit.

Meanwhile, the initiative to return the Syrian delegation to the League was announced even earlier, during Algeria's presidency of the League. The main supporter of the idea was Algeria, which did not break off ties with Syria ever since. But the process was stalled because of Washington's pressure and the cold attitude of some Arab states towards the initiative. However, the situation now is almost completely different. Arab brothers have lined up for reconciliation with Assad.

Egypt, one of the important countries in the Arab world, also accelerated reconciliation with Syria. In fact, Egyptian-Syrian ties began to improve after the military coup in Egypt in the summer of 2013. After the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood, Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi decided to soften relations with his Syrian neighbour. The media even leaked at the time that Egypt would coordinate with Russia and send a task force to Syria's coastal areas. However, this intention did not materialise. According to some experts, this was due to disapproval of the rapprochement between Cairo and Damascus by Egypt's main sponsors - the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

But now the situation has changed. Egypt was one of the countries that dispatched humanitarian aid to Syria after the recent earthquake. President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi held a personal telephone conversation with Bashar al-Assad, after which Egyptian humanitarian aid was promptly delivered to the Syrian port of Latakia.

On April 1, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Migdad visited Cairo, where he met his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry. During the talks, the two sides discussed a planned meeting between the Egyptian and Syrian presidents at the end of April, just after Ramadan. This means that leading Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, gave the green light for reconciliation with Syria.

According to media reports, the restoration of comprehensive relations with Damascus will be possible if there is a political solution to the Syrian conflict. The fact that Cairo has already started reconciliation with Damascus shows that there is a general agreement on Syria.

Last autumn Tunisia, where the infamous Arab Spring is known to have originated, also decided to re-establish diplomatic relations with Syria.

Why the Arabs are coming on terms with Assad

Firstly, it was the failure of the Syrian conflict that pushed the Arab countries towards peace with Syria. Twelve years of armed confrontation did not succeed in overthrowing Bashar al-Assad and the change of power in Syria. Assad retained his power with the support of Russia, Iran and China.

Secondly, no less important factor in the Arab rapprochement with Damascus was the risk of Iran and Russia's growing joint influence in Syria, which remains one of the most strategically important countries in the region. Moreover, there began disagreements over the Syrian issue among the Arab states, which is one of the reasons behind the revision of the policy towards Assad. In particular, Algeria, Egypt, Iraq and a number of other states with political and ideological affinity to the Syrian government accelerated the process.

Thirdly, regional conditions have changed. It appears that some European countries and Türkiye, known for their once intransigent stance towards Syria, are now accepting the reality of Assad's rule. In addition, declining support for regime change in Syria has forced the Arab authorities to reconsider their policies. It has also become apparent that Syria lacks a unified, well-organised opposition. Radical Islamist groups are a serious headache for the Arab regimes. In other words, they have been forced to choose the lesser evil.

Finally, the influence of China and Russia in the Middle East is increasing. In particular, the situation in the region was also changed by the Chinese-brokered agreement in March to restore relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and then the UAE. So, the Syrian government no longer poses a serious threat to the Arab authorities.

Washington's stance on reconciliation

How quick the relations between the Arab countries and Syria are restored will also depend on the positions of the US and the European Union, or rather the degree Washington's loyalty.

Notably, in March, during his Middle Eastern tour, the US Undersecretary of State Barbara Leaf stated that Washington does not support reconciliation with Syria. But according to Arab media reports, she also added that the US was not trying to create any obstacles in this path.

In other words, the US does not want, at least openly, to change its policy towards Syria. But at the same time, Washington hopes that reconciliation with Assad will lead to continued unity among the Arab countries and some political change in Syria.

As noted above, the rapprochement actually began several years ago. Washington's stiff opposition to it in the current situation, however, can have a negative impact on its ties with the Arab countries. The OPEC+ decisions and the reconciliation process between Iran and Saudi Arabia have already severely damaged Washington's influence in the region. It is also clear that the US is not going to change its policy towards Syria, let alone withdraw its military contingent from the country. But it does not prevent Arab countries from moving closer to Syria. On the contrary, it is quite likely that Washington has decided to exert some influence on Damascus through the Arab states in order to reduce Iranian influence on it. Elements of such outside influence could be seen in the Saudi-Syrian talks held in March.

According to media reports, Riyadh put forward a number of conditions for reconciliation with Damascus. It demands for negotiations with the opposition in line with the UN Security Council Resolution 2254, changes to the country's constitution, the release of political prisoners, refusal to sign strategic agreements with Iran, withdrawal of pro-Iranian armed groups from Syria, strengthening security measures on the Syrian-Jordanian border, etc.

Overall, the Saudis' main concerns are related to the security of Arab countries in the region. Despite the initiated reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran, the presence of Iranian-linked armed groups in Syria worries Arab countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia. Although it is unlikely that Damascus will meet all the conditions, but it cannot completely abandon compromise either.

Undoubtedly, Arab reconciliation with Syria can be called another indicator of the new reality in the region. But it will manifest itself even more at the level of global politics. A new player is entering the Middle East arena, China. So far, this process is limited to political understandings and agreements. But we can soon see its transformation into a new sharp phase of regional rivalry between the US and China.