A GIFT FROM A LOSER

The village of Dyg (or Tegh in Armenian) in the Gorus distrct of Armenia made headlines when on April 11 the Armenian side staged another armed provocation, claiming the lives of three Azerbaijani servicemen.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated that Armenian authorities bear full responsibility for the incident. According to the Foreign Ministry, Yerevan's provocations take place amid persistent calls for negotiations by the international community, thereby proving that Armenia is not interested in the settlement process. "Armenian military provocations are accompanied by political provocative steps and statements," Azerbaijani diplomats noted, stating that Armenia's actions violate all norms and principles of international law. They violate the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan and seriously threaten the regional peace and security.

President Ilham Aliyev called the border incident as a deliberate provocation by Armenia. During his meeting with the Foreign Minister of Northern Macedonia, OSCE Chairman-in-Office Bujar Osmani, Ilham Aliyev said that the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan was currently going in two directions. He added that Azerbaijan has made proposals to organise meetings in Baku to establish direct contacts with the Armenian residents of the Garabagh economic region, appointed a special representative for this purpose and invited Armenians to Baku to discuss both reintegration and various infrastructural projects.

Incidentally, many experts considered the winter tranquillity on the border to be temporary and warned that the situation could escalate in spring, when the snow melts. Alas, the worst predictions came true.

Don't expect external support

Azerbaijani experts remind us of an obvious political game played by Yerevan before the recent border tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This included the toughening of official Armenian rhetoric and new conditions put forward by Armenians, knowing that they are unacceptable to Azerbaijan, and many more. Yerevan was showing in every way that it did not want to negotiate with Azerbaijan.

It is not hard to guess that Armenia was encouraged by the arrival of the second EU observation mission to the region. Indeed, head of the mission, Markus Ritter, made strange statements in his interviews with the German media. For example, this is what he told Deutsche Welle: "Many Armenians expect Azerbaijan to launch an attack in spring. If it does not happen, we will consider it a success of our mission". The statement caused indignation in Azerbaijan. According to Mr. Ritter's logic, if there is no attack, it is because the European mission prevented it by arriving to the region, not because Azerbaijan has no such thoughts at all. For some reason, an option that it might be the Armenian authorities that staged provocations does not occur to Europeans.

Unsurprisingly, the presence of European observers has been considered a political indulgence. Same as the recent visit to the region by former NATO Secretary General and now Yerevan's paid lobbyist Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

Also, Armenia is suffering from internal political tensions in Armenia, largely caused by Anna Hakobyan, the wife of Nikol Pashinian. Speaking at an event to commemorate one of the Armenian soldiers killed in April 2016, Ms. Hakobyan admitted: "During the 44-day war, when the commander called for volunteers to defend the homeland, many did not support his call. When I formed a unit to set an example, the response was also negative." Besides, she said there were as many as 11,000 deserters in Armenia at the time – compared to 10,000 speculated after the war. As a result, she was accused of insulting everything and everyone.

But, undoubtedly, the main reason lies elsewhere. Just before another provocation, Armenia lost the so-called bloodless road war in Garabagh.

All roads lead... to the checkpoint

Dyg is not far from the Gorus-Lachin-Shusha-Khankendi road. Recently there have been numerous panic reports in Armenia of Azerbaijani troops advancing from this direction, as well as the alleged seizure of 80,000 hectares of land, etc. Initially Armenian authorities did not even try to offer any resistance. Azerbaijan first took control of the dirt road to Turshsu—the same road Armenian separatists tried to use to supply their posts illegally set up near the line of contact and then smuggle in contraband. Baku reiterated its proposal, or rather demanded that a checkpoint be set right on the Gorus-Lachin-Shusha-Khankendi road.

As repeatedly noted earlier, a border checkpoint is an important step in the normalisation of the regional situation. Moreover, it does not in any way contradict the November 10, 2020 Trilateral Statement. Finally, a checkpoint is the best way to civilise the delivery of humanitarian goods to Khankendi. Like the Azerbaijani checkpoint operating on the Gafan-Gorus road.

The media, primarily Armenian and Russian, leaked information about a good business involving both the peacebuilders and the International Red Cross. It costs one or two thousand dollars to smuggle a truckload of commercial goods as cargo for the peacekeepers. Prices then soared to $10,000, which outraged the residents of Khankendi. According to Russian media reports, the Red Cross charges $1,000 to $2,000 per one person. Azerbaijani eco-activists have repeatedly said they were ready to let both humanitarian cargo and Khankandi civilians through. However, to reach the Azerbaijani picket, these civilians must still pass through the separatist "police" checkpoints...

The issue has been mentioned more than once. Azerbaijan has again raised the issue of checkpoints to control roads from Armenia to Khankendi. In fact, the work is already underway. Apparently, Yerevan realises that an Azerbaijani checkpoint will be functioning on the road soon or later, it's just a matter of time. Especially since Russian peacekeepers have failed to ensure proper control over the road.

In such a situation, the recent Armenian provocation in Dyg was nothing but an attempt to disrupt the installation of a checkpoint on the Lachin road, against which Yerevan no longer has any arguments. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan in fact already controls all the roads. Perhaps Nikol Pashinyan thought a provocation near the village of Dyg might be the best way to make a U-turn in the settlement process, thinking that European observers would cover his back in any case.

The cost of a broken dialogue

Armenia's new provocation came amid speculations of a possible meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Nikola Pashinian in Washington. The EU, a recent mediation leader, is now out of the picture, thanks to the efforts of Paris and Yerevan.

There may be different opinions about the mediators Azerbaijan and Armenia would prefer. In any case, the five principles proposed by Azerbaijan are the basis for a peace agreement. Most importantly, Baku supports any working format. The Armenian side, on the other hand, is unwilling in principle to negotiate. They understand perfectly well that any peace agreement would put an end to their claims on Garabagh. Moreover, they will have to start demarcating and delimiting the borders. This is an extremely difficult option for Yerevan, as it will have to return territories to Azerbaijan.

Experience shows that armed provocations do not help Yerevan to reshape its diplomacy. On the contrary, a violent scenario usually leads to tougher conditions for Yerevan. And their external supporters are in no hurry to back up Armenia in these cases.