DECISIVE BATTLE

The general presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye  are just a few days away. On May 14, the republic, which celebrates its centenary this year, will choose the representatives of political class who will take it to future. This truly momentous choice reflects serious internal and external factors. It is the different attitudes of the leading Turkish political forces that will mainly determine the intensity of struggle between them during the electoral process.

Economy as a determining factor in the battle of alliances

The public focus is primarily on the presidential election, although together with the parliamentary election, it is a kind of popular referendum on confidence in the ruling force - the Justice and Development Party (AKP) represented by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The main struggle is between two centres of power. The first is Erdogan, who is the candidate of the Republican Alliance formed by AKP and its long-standing coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).  The second is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), who is the joint candidate of the People's Alliance of the six leading opposition parties. In addition, the candidate of the Ata Alliance, Sinan Ogan, and the leader of the Homeland Party (Memleket Partisi), Muharrem Ince, are also running for president.

Criminal manifestations illustrate the high heat of internal political confrontation, like the attacks on the offices of the ruling AKP in Istanbul and Adana.

Meanwhile, it is the economic development and the aftermath of the devastating earthquake that draws the public attention in electoral debates. Opposition criticises the authorities for failures in economic policy, including high inflation (prices have risen by 50% over the past year) as well as the depreciation of the Turkish lira. This criticism earns certain dividends for Erdogan's opponents, since it is based on the growing social discontent due primarily to significant food price rises. Experts suggest that this factor alone can alienate a certain part of AKP's base electorate - the lower middle class, which suffers most from inflation.

However, President Erdogan counters the arguments against him with equally strong arguments. Showing high investment with low interest rates under his rule, he promises to reduce inflation and stabilise food prices. He believes that further progress in the national socio-economic development depends on strengthening Türkiye's energy independence. During a ceremony at the Filos gas processing complex in Zonguldak to launch the supply of Black Sea gas to Türkiye, President Erdogan promised that within a year consumers would not pay for gas used in kitchens and for heating homes. He also announced social measures, including interest-free loans for newlyweds upon marriage without repayment for a certain period of time, as well as the state's payment of a portion of housewives' insurance premiums upon retirement.

Statements from the opposition camp, questioning the effectiveness of the government's economic policies, are countered by statements from people close to Erdogan, who prove the legitimacy of his actions. One of them is the Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, who has become one of the main mouthpieces of AKP's election campaign. Soylu describes Erdogan as "a revolutionary with high virtues", a leader who has transformed Türkiye into "a country with a ready-made infrastructure, rapidly heading into the future".

Soylu has also made statements about Türkiye's foreign policy, which has been the subject of much debate in the election race. They confirm the view of many Turkish and Western experts that Türkiye's upcoming election will determine its future geopolitical course as well. While Türkiye will continue the transformation to a self-sufficient centre of regional and global politics with Erdogan's re-election, Kilicdaroglu's accession to power can bring the country back into the orbit of Western, primarily American, influence.

Full independence under risk

Soylu accused the US of being the root cause of Türkiye's many problems, including declining investment, rising protest sentiment and the threat of terrorism—the latter meaning the US support for Kurdish terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq, against which Ankara has conducted four major military operations in recent years.

However, the essence of Soylu's anti-American statements boils down to the US and the entire West trying to deprive Türkiye of its sovereignty. Therefore, the upcoming May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections are not just about re-electing the country's leadership, but about the country retaining its political independence.

"It is not Erdogan's choice, it is the choice of Türkiye's future generations, the choice of full independence for Türkiye. That is why both the US and Europe are pushing so vigorously," Soylu said. At the same time, he expressed confidence that "with God's help, the mouths of America, Europe and all evil will be closed. The 50-gram ballots will show those who think they are the most powerful in the world what the true democracy is and that they understand nothing about democracy." Soylu urged voters to be "faithful sons of their country" and "defend the fundamental values of the nation".

Turkish leadership's troubled relationship with Washington was further exacerbated after Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Türkiye's opposition presidential candidate met with the US Ambassador Jeff Flake. Erdogan reacted sharply to the incident, telling the latter that it is the president of the Republic of Türkiye who he should meet with. And as a punishment for the ambassador's insolence in holding talks with Türkiye's leading opposition figure, Erdogan announced his own refusal to deal with Flake. "Our doors are closed to him, he will no longer be able to enter," the Turkish president said.

Thus, the contradictions between Erdogan's Türkiye and the US, and in a broader sense the entire West, ongoing since the beginning of the AKP's rule, are also evident in the current electoral race. The outcome of elections will determine the future of the Turkish state. By and large, it is these contradictions that divide the country's political elite into the supporters of strict secularism and traditionalist conservatives. The former are mainly grouped around the Kemalist CHP, while the latter support the ruling power represented by AKP, which acts as a moderate Islamist organisation.

Remarkably, the religious background of inter-party struggle also affected the election campaigns. During Kilicdaroglu's trip to the southeastern province of Adiyaman, which also suffered from the earthquake, he joined prayers to mark the end of the holy month of Ramadan and also visited the mausoleum of one of the companions of Prophet Muhammad. Both events were accompanied by shouts from the crowd against Kilicdaroglu: "you do not know how to read the Fatihah correctly!" "you aren't a Muslim!" "you don't belong here!" The opposition candidate had no choice but to halt his campaign as soon as possible and leave Adiyaman.

These are the highlights of political action leading up to Türkiye's momentous general election. President and the ruling party candidate Erdogan considers them "decisive". This view is completely shared by the opposition. However, this solidarity of opinion is the only indicator bringing the Turkish authorities closer to the opposition. Both sides, however, believe that only their own expected triumph will determine Türkiye's future. But it is up to the Turkish people to decide upon the winner.

While the sociological surveys held at the beginning of the election race suggested higher probability for Kilicdaroglu to win the presidential race, recent polls indicate that Erdogan's re-election chances are increasing. However, surveys do not rule out a run-off.