READY TO ATTACK

Recently, a series of high-profile scandals and events have significantly affected the overall background of military and political processes, thereby overshadowing the military operations in Ukraine.

Many believe it is because of ongoing preparations for a promised counterattack by the Ukrainian army. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky held a meeting where he confirmed the successful counterattack by the Ukrainian army near Bakhmut. The event contributed well to creating an appropriate information background about Ukraine's readiness and ability to both successfully defend itself and conduct an offensive. Apparently, Kiev succeeded in producing the desired effect.

Preparations for a counter-offensive underway

According to numerous media reports, there have been various kinds of sabotage and subversive actions in Russia amid exceptional attention to the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

On May 1-2, two locomotives and 27 cargo wagons derailed in the Bryansk region as a result of railway bombings. On May 3, there was an explosion at an oil depot in Temryuksky district, Krasnodar Krai, setting fire on an oil tanker. On May 6, there were explosions in Crimea, presumably due to an air defense system response. However, the most high-profile event was a notorious drone attack on the Kremlin on May 3. Russia called it a terrorist attack, while Ukraine called it a staged attack to justify strikes on Ukrainian territory.

Critics of the Russian version make their own arguments and pose questions. In fact, a few months ago Russian authorities began installing air defence systems on the Ministry of Defence and administrative buildings throughout Moscow. The Kremlin is one of the most heavily guarded government complexes in the world. Russia's border with Ukraine is also guarded. If the drones were launched from Ukraine, how could they fly such a distance unnoticed and not be detected? Does it mean there such obvious drawbacks in Moscow's defence? It is unclear how the drones managed to get so close to the Kremlin.

The drone attack was followed by a series of strikes on Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov and other cities. Ukraine described them as expected. Meanwhile, on May 8, Kiev suffered the most massive attack since the war, according to the mayor of the city, Vitaliy Klitschko.

One of the most high-profile recent events was the attempted assassination of Russian politician and writer Zakhar Prilepin, who was in his car with his driver and daughter. It happened on May 6 in Nizhny Novgorod. Prilepin and his daughter were injured in the blast, while the driver died at the scene.

Prilepin is known for taking an active part in military actions in Ukraine. This explains the reason behind the incident admittedly organised by the Atesh movement of Crimean Tatars. According to media reports, Atesh has been hunting Prilepin since the beginning of the year.

The assassination attempt on Prilepin is believed to continue the line of previous deadly assaults on journalist Darya Dugina and military reporter Vladlen Tatarsky, as well as the one survived by the head of Tsargrad TV, Konstantin Malofeyev.

Some claim that this is a hunt for the most active participants of the Russian-Ukrainian war, part of the ongoing hybrid warfare.

Prigozhin vs Shoigu

Perhaps the most iconic event of recent weeks was the address by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner PMC. He recorded a video in front of the dozens of dead Wagner fighters, blaming the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense, including Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, for their deaths.

He then turned on his small flash-light and pointed it on the corpses lying in the open air near the front line. Prigozhin said that these were the soldiers killed in just a single day. In reality, however, the death toll is much higher. "Shoigu, Gerasimov, where are the bullets?" Prigozhin asked, referring to the Minister of Defence and the head of the General Staff.

In the same video message, Prigozhin praised the former Deputy Minister of Defense Mikhail Mizintsev, who recently joined Prigozhin's team as deputy commander.

Prigozhin, whose mercenaries have become increasingly important in the Ukrainian conflict amid the weakening Russian army, has been very active on the front line in recent months, especially around Bakhmut.

To some extent, Prigozhin's address can be considered a watershed moment in the entire war. He stated for the first time that Russian troops fled Izyum in March 2022 because of advancing Ukrainian troops. He thus acknowledged the failure of the Russian military's initial plans.

In addition, his revelations reinforced popular beliefs about a deep breech in the Russian elite. Given the close relationship of Prigozhin with President Vladimir Putin, we can assume that he will be a serious problem for the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian military elites and other government bodies for a long time.

Prigozhin made great efforts while advancing on Bakhmut. However, his harsh statements indicate that the plans of Russian troops have later been thwarted. Meanwhile, President Zelensky suggested that Moscow intended to ensure full control over the city by May 9.

The fact that these intentions were thwarted not only by Ukrainians but also due to conflicting interests within the Russian army gives rise to thoughts about the extreme uncertainty of the Russian military campaign.

Sober analysis necessary

Meanwhile, despite preparations for a counter-offensive, situation with Ukraine is not clear either. Czech President Petr Pavel, a retired general and former chairman of NATO's Military Committee, has privately warned the Ukrainian leadership against the possibility of a hasty counter-offensive.

In meetings held in Kiev with President Vladimir Zelensky and Prime Minister Denys Shmygal, Petr Pavel warned that they missed the element of surprise that contributed to the successful storming of Kharkov and Kherson last year.

Petr Pavel said the Ukrainian president had asked him and his Slovak counterpart Zuzana Chaputova that they arm a Ukrainian mechanised brigade before the long-awaited counter-offensive. "Apparently, they don't have everything to successfully launch the operation. If this counter-offensive fails, it will be extremely damaging for Ukraine because they will not have another chance, at least this year," Pavel said. He said Ukraine would inevitably have to face "terrible losses", regardless of the size of its armed forces, and it could not fail the counter-offensive.

The Czech president is a politician with an extensive military experience. He is one of the men who contributed to strengthening NATO's eastern flank. Pavel notes that despite massive support for Ukraine, the West must be prepared for an outcome without outright victory. "I think we must do our best to encourage Ukrainians and help them succeed. But internally we must also be prepared for other contingencies," Pavel said.

While the massive Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory on May 9 can by no means be categorised as a contingency, they clearly outstripped the scale of previous air raids. It was an attempt to show that, despite the speculations on Russia experiencing a shortage of missiles and drones, it has enough weapons to hit long-range targets.

Storm Shadow, sanctions and expected counter-offensive

Perhaps it was these strikes that prompted London to provide the 250km-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to the Ukrainian army, which now will be able to strike deep into territories controlled by Russians, including Crimea.

As expected, Russia reacted extremely negatively to Britain's supply of long-range cruise missiles and threatened with an adequate response. Moscow even requested a UN Security Council meeting on May 18 over Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, in particular Storm Shadows. Official representative of the UN Secretary-General, Stephane Dujarric, responded succinctly that the organisation did not assess every arms delivery by Western countries to the Ukrainian army.

In the meantime, Brussels intensified discussions on additional anti-Russian sanctions, the 11th package. The EU called on its members to take measures against countries that help the Kremlin circumvent the sanctions.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a remarkable statement during her visit to Kiev. "Recently, we have seen an increase in very unusual trade flows through the European Union and some third countries. These goods then make their way to Russia," she said, standing next to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.

Von der Leyen did not name the countries, but EU officials have for some time expressed concern about certain flows of goods through China, Iran and Armenia. "If we see goods going from the EU to third countries and then entering Russia, we can propose to member states to impose sanctions against those goods," she told reporters.

Earlier, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said that any sanctions would not target countries but rather specific companies that supply Russian arms manufacturers with critical components, including so-called "dual-use goods".

This also applies to Armenian companies, which have been very successful in dubious import-export operations. Recently, the New York Times published an article stating that Armenia imported 515% more chips and processors from the US in 2022 and 212% more from the EU than in 2021. Armenia then exported 97% of these products to Russia.

Moreover, European politicians prefer to mention China and Iran in the list of violators, while omitting Yerevan's significant contribution to overcoming the consequences of sanctions. Ukrainian politicians and public figures have repeatedly rebuked the Armenian leadership for its double standards towards Ukraine, and European politicians for being indiscriminate about who can be considered a reliable partner. 

Either way, it is believed in Ukraine that the best argument to communicate Kiev's position to the international community is to launch a counter-offensive, which is currently underway. The successful attack of Ukrainian military in Bakhmut proves that preparations for the offensive are underway.