SUMMIT OF UNCERTAINTIES

Although regarded as a landmark event, the G7 summit held in Hiroshima, Japan failed to adequately assess the ongoing global processes, especially the ones in and around Ukraine. Irritation at China's actions mixed with condemnation of Russia and support for Kiev were reflected in the summit's final declaration. However, critics say that the G7 actions could have been more articulate. In particular, it is believed that support for Kiev is still insufficient, despite the evident progress on the "F-16 coalition".

Bakhmut as an indicator of military activity

Conflicting statements regarding the seizure of Bakhmut by Russian Wagner PMC were among the issues discussed during the summit. President Zelensky was evasive when asked about the loss of control over the city by the AFU, while lobbying the G7 leaders to support plans to equip the Ukrainian army with advanced Western equipment, in particular F-16 fighter jets.

The leaders of the US, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Canada and Japan reaffirmed their solidarity with Ukraine ahead of an impending counter-offensive that can determine how and when the war ends.

Zelensky achieved an important breakthrough. Before the summit, US President Joe Biden agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on US F-16 fighter jets. Although it is highly likely that the actual training of Ukrainian pilots has been underway for several months. The information confirms the seriousness of the West's intentions to provide another important support to Ukraine. The Ukrainian president has reportedly promised Biden that the planes would not strike Russia, instead to be used within Ukrainian territory.

Meanwhile, the situation with the next batch of US aid to Ukraine is not clear amid the conflict between the White House and the Senate on raising the US debt ceiling. The Hill suggested that amid the current problems, the US might delay payments to Ukraine.

According to The Hill, the US government has even decided to postpone discussions on the next batch of financial aid to Kiev due to uncertainty over the Ukrainian army's counterattack.

The US believes that an insufficiently prepared counter-attack could lead to unnecessary costs.

Reuters reports that the day before the G7 summit, the Pentagon discovered an accounting error that resulted in an unaccounted amount of $3b. Overall, there is some $14b in the US defence budget, which is enough to fund military operations of the UAF only until September.

Nevertheless, the Congress believes that the government and lawmakers are not discussing cuts in defence spending, as this poses a threat to Washington's interests.

Brazil, India and China in G7 plans

During the summit also attended by the leaders of India and Brazil, Zelensky hoped to convince the leaders of the so-called "wavering states" to join the Western powers and support Ukraine. But neither Narendra Modi nor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva showed any sign of willingness to change their positions and called only for an end to the war.

The invitation of the leaders of Brazil and India to the summit was to some extent an intention to create at least the appearance of the possibility of achieving common approaches to global processes by the G7 and the two economic giants drifting on their own in terms of global geopolitics. But this attempt can hardly be considered a success given the absence of even a semblance of unanimity on one of the fundamental issues on the agenda.

Although Ukraine needs the support of Western partners to wage the next phase of the war, possible peace negotiations are still possible. China, as the only major power that can influence Russia can play a crucial role in such negotiations, also ensuring compliance with the terms of the final settlement.

This factor can make the reduction of tensions between Beijing and Washington even more desirable. That is why Biden promised immediately after the summit an imminent thaw in their relations if China makes every effort to persuade Russia to stop military action.

Perhaps the idea of economic isolation from China is rejected in the final G7 declaration in order to placate Beijing. Meanwhile, it says that G7 economies should be insulated from the risks associated with over-dependence on Chinese supply chains. Along with the statement that the G7 does not wish to hinder China's rise, this may be interpreted as the willingness of European states to avoid confrontation between the two great powers - Washington and Beijing. Yet, the final declaration warns China against economical coercion of other countries to achieve political goals.

China has faced sharp opposition from the G7 over its stance on Russia, Taiwan, trade blackmail of its partners, etc. Thus, the G7 leaders called on Beijing to do more to stop Russia's war with Ukraine. "We call on China to press Russia to stop its military aggression, and immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw its troops from Ukraine. We encourage China to support a comprehensive, just and lasting peace based on territorial integrity and the principles and purposes of the UN Charter, including through its direct dialogue with Ukraine,” the G7 leaders said in their communiqué.

China gets into action

Apparently, Beijing heard the call, as the Chinese special envoy Li Hui visited Kiev. After the UN vote, when the Chinese delegation for the first time since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war supported a General Assembly resolution calling Russia an aggressor, the Chinese move was interpreted as an additional message indicating Beijing's willingness to use its diplomatic potential to resolve the crisis.

Li Hui became the first senior Chinese official to visit Ukraine since the war began as part of his tour to promote peace talks. In addition to Kiev, he also visited Moscow and promised to visit Brussels.

Certainly, no one expected any breakthrough solutions. Especially since the Chinese representative in Kiev was told directly that "Ukraine does not accept any proposals involving the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict". The idea was voiced by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.

Nevertheless, the visit was considered very important because it allowed the Chinese to learn directly from Kiev its position on possible negotiations and on the conflict in general, as well as the reaction to the Chinese proposals.

Li Hui's trip to Moscow was of equal interest, as the Chinese diplomat knows the Russian partners well. He has long worked in Moscow and even has Russian government awards. Initially, the diplomat was seen as someone sympathising to Moscow's position. According to media reports, during his visit to the Russian capital, the Chinese special envoy called for a ceasefire in Ukraine and for the recognition of new regions as part of Russia.

Despite Ukraine's rejection of the Chinese proposal, some Western officials said it was too early to reject China's attempts to peacefully resolve the Ukrainian conflict. Apparently, they expect to use Chinese services as a last resort. However, they expressed doubts that Beijing could be an honest broker in any negotiations because of its proximity to Moscow.

After Moscow, Li Hui was also expected to visit Brussels, which has different expectations from the Chinese mediation effort. As early as mid-May, Brussels said that China "must push the aggressor country Russia to leave the territory of Ukraine. Otherwise, relations between the European Union and Beijing can never develop properly".

Meanwhile, Beijing is not the only one trying to reconcile Kiev and Moscow. The Vatican and the members of the African Union also declared their willingness to send missions to Kiev and Moscow for holding talks a few days before Li's visit to Ukraine.

In particular, the Holy See has requested Moscow and Kiev through its diplomatic missions to receive the Pope's envoys to discuss "opening a negotiating path leading to a truce". Pope Francis said during a press conference on April 30 that the Vatican was carrying out a mission to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. He noted that it would only be possible to speak about it once it had become public.

At the same time, the South African president said that he had had talks with Presidents Putin and Zelensky on behalf of the African states, and they both had agreed to accept the African leaders' mission on a peace initiative.

Although the success of these missions is not widely believed, many understand that in the event of a possible failure of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, any attempt to stop the hostilities can be a life-saving step to prevent further escalation.

Hybrid warfare and the new world order

Military activity in Russia's Belgorod region demonstrates that escalation is inevitable even without a counter-offensive. An armed detachment attempted to gain control of several settlements in the border region allegedly to create a "security belt to protect the Ukrainian civilian population".

Russian side believes that a sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is operating in the region. On the other hand, Ukrainian sources report about the so-called anti-government legion Freedom of Russia and the Russian Volunteer Corps. Previously, similar actions were recorded in the Bryansk region of Russia. It is presumed that they might be attempts to divert considerable Russian military forces to defend the long Russian-Ukrainian border, which increases the chances of a successful counteroffensive by the Ukrainian armed forces.

All this means that the war is increasingly becoming hybrid and territorially dispersed. This makes its consequences seem less predictable.

It is this unpredictability and uncertainty that may be most worrying for Western states. Meanwhile, the fragmentation of political space has increasing economic effects. For the G7, this process is a signal to increase their sovereignty on raw materials.

Apparently, the G7 call for the diversification of supply sources for critical minerals means less dependence on China, which controls 70% of the global production of rare earth elements.

According to the joint statement adopted in Hiroshima, G7 "support open, fair, transparent, secure, diverse, sustainable, traceable, rules- and market-based trade in critical minerals, oppose market-distorting practices and monopolistic policies on critical minerals."

The G7 also aims to mobilise up to $600b in infrastructure financing through the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, competing with China's One Belt, One Road initiative.

In an attempt to help Ukraine and harness China, the G7 is trying to develop concerted steps in the emerging new world order. Many agree that its final contours may emerge as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. In the meantime, while waiting for these results, all known centres of power are trying to act in their own interests.