NO RESTRICTIONS

Ongoing events in and around Georgia once again cause political turbulence. This time because of the struggle of external powers for influence in the country. Recently, Russia abolished the visa regime for Georgian citizens and lift the ban on flights by Russian airlines to Georgia.

No more restricts

Russian President Vladimir Putin decreed to cancel the visa regime established back in 2000 (although in 2012 Tbilisi unilaterally re-established a visa-free regime for Russian citizens), as well as Moscow's ban on direct flights between the two countries four years ago. At that time the ban was a response to protests in Tbilisi prompted by the visit of Russian State Duma deputy Sergei Gavrilov, head of the Orthodoxy Inter-Parliamentary Assembly, who took the seat of the Georgian speaker of parliament during his meeting with Georgian deputies.

By and large, the Kremlin's current move is geopolitically motivated. Moscow gives credit to the Georgian Dream government, which, despite the collapse of bilateral relations since 2008, is trying to avoid a military-political confrontation with Russia. Amidst the increasing global confrontation between the West and Russia, the latter is trying to maintain its influence in the former Soviet Union, particularly in the South Caucasus, thereby seeking to strengthen pro-Russian sentiments in Georgia. It is clear that Putin's decrees serve primarily this objective.

The reaction of Tbilisi proves, at least to some extent, the validity of such calculations by the Kremlin. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili praised Russia's decision to abolish visas and resume direct flights between the countries. Georgian authorities believe that Moscow's decisions will facilitate the communication with the homeland for nearly a million of Georgian citizens living in Russia. In addition, by restoring direct air links with Russia, they expect to attract to the state treasury an additional $400 million thank to tourism opportunities.

Therefore, the Georgian government allowed the Russian airline Azimut and Georgian Airways to operate direct flights between the capitals of both countries. In addition, the Russian Red Wings Airlines will launch direct flights between Sochi and Tbilisi, as well as Moscow and Kutaisi from June.

However, all these steps do not mean that the position of Tbilisi, which welcomed the consequences of Russian decisions due to the benefits they bring to Georgia, is shared by all the Georgians. Neither does it mean a perspective increase in pro-Russian sentiments in the country.

The President, the Dream and the Opposition

Moscow's decisions and the Georgian government's endorsement of them have caused sharp criticism and even protests from Georgia's main opposition forces. They condemn the authorities for their allied attitude towards Russia, which is believed have been "rewarded" by Putin's decisions to abolish visas and ban direct flights. The main argument of the opposition against the ruling Georgian Dream party is that its policies are damaging the country's course of integration into the Euro-Atlantic space.

The same opinion is shared by Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, who believes that "restoration of direct flights with Georgia and abolition of the visa regime is unacceptable as long as Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine and occupies Georgian territory". By opposing the actions of the Georgian government, Zurabishvili confirmed her keeping even greater distance from the ruling power.

So, obviously there is a conflict between the incumbent Georgian president and the Garibashvili government, as Zurabishvili rejects the pro-Russian policies of her prime-minister. The conflict has been further fuelled after the alleged arrival in Georgia of the daughter of the Russian foreign minister, Yekaterina Vinokurova, to attend the wedding of her husband's brother, Russian businessman Aleksandr Vinokurov.

Lavrov and members of his family are on Western sanctions lists. Georgia joined them, but refused to impose direct economic sanctions against Russia. Georgian opposition activists, confident that Lavrov's relatives could not visit Georgia without the approval of local authorities and security service, staged a protest in the Kakheti region, where the alleged wedding took place.

Chairman of the Georgian Dream, Irakli Kobakhidze, called the actions of oppositionists a manifestation of xenophobia. This provoked the indignation of President Zurabishvili, who stated that she would "not allow the Georgian people to be called xenophobic". Indeed, she played an instrumental role in ending the scandal. She called an emergency briefing, where she said: "There will be no wedding of the Lavrov family in Georgia. I was assured by the Minister of Interior that these people had to pay for the second half of the wedding, but they left. This is a victory of our society." Zurabishvili also sharply condemned the state authorities for allowing the internationally sanctioned individuals to enter Georgia.

Meanwhile, protests were accompanied by the first direct flight from Moscow to Tbilisi International Airport in four years. Several opposition activists, including Elene Khoshtaria, leader of the Droa (It's Time) party, were detained by the police. Irakli Kobakhidze called her and President Salome Zurabishvili "dark and ignorant people", suggesting both to re-read Vazha Pshavela's poem The Guest and The Host, which, he believes, is exactly about the "people like Khoshtaria and Zurabishvili".

Do such tense discussions between the Georgian authorities demonstrate the final breakup between President Zurabishvili and the ruling Georgian Dream party, whose founder and de facto leader, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, had once supported her accession to the post? For example, at first President Zurabishvili rejected the bill on foreign agents, promoted by the ruling party. The more recent internal political struggle around the Russian decision to abolish the visa regime and to lift the ban on direct flights actually takes Zurabishvili to an alliance with the opposition protesting against the pro-Russian policies of local authorities.

Is such an alliance possible? The answer to this question will influence the future alignment of political forces in Georgia, a factor that will play one of the instrumental roles in determining the fate of Georgian integration into the Euro-Atlantic world.

Consequences possible

The West warns unequivocally that displays of loyalty to Russia may have consequences for Georgia.

Matthew Miller, Spokesman of the the US State Department, expressed concern over the restoration of direct air links between Georgia and Russia. "This is not the right time to build up ties with Russia," Miller said. Also, Washington warned about a risk of sanctions on Georgian airports and airlines.

The EU also expressed regret over the Georgian government's approval of the Russian decision. Peter Stano, spokesman for the EU External Action Service, reminded of the EU sanctions on flights to and over Russia. Yet, "the decision of Georgian authorities raises fears for Georgia's European path."

Apparently, the EU expected the Georgian authorities to join the current sanctions against Russia. The counter-argument of Tbilisi about the unfair attitude of the EU to Georgia, which does not condemn a number of countries such as Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Israel for direct flight to and from Russia, has been refuted by the following argument: "The decision of the Georgian authorities raises concerns, given that Georgia is a candidate for EU membership. Under the association agreement between Georgia and the EU, it has to coordinate its foreign policy decisions with the union," Stano stated.

However, the Georgian leadership is adamant, despite the Western pressure. Prime Minister Garibashvili confirmed that "Georgia supports Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, but will not impose direct sanctions against Russia". Otherwise, "the country's economy would collapse" and "we would harm our own people". "Georgia is a small nation with a population of four million people, so it is important to maintain peace, stability and security in the country. It is my duty to protect the interests of my people," Garibashvili said.

Chairman of the Georgian Parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, condemned those who suggest imposing sanctions against Russia because they "in fact tell us that we have to enter a possible military conflict with Russia".

Disagreement between Tbilisi and the EU over such a crucial issue for both sides will undoubtedly affect the further course of Georgia's European path. Brussels is holding the Georgian government responsible for the inevitable costs of this path. Thus, it further delays granting Georgia the status of a candidate country for the EU membership.