WATER WAR

One of the most recent high-profile incidents in global politics was the escalation of relations between Iran and Afghanistan. It was a series of skirmishes on the border line over the use of the Helmand River, hence also referred to as a 'water war'.

Cause of the dispute

An armed incident took place on the border between Iran's Sistan and Baluchistan provinces and the Nimroz province of Afghanistan. The two sides accuse each other of provoking a firefight, with two Iranian border guards and an Afghan soldier falling victim. In addition, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported of two Afghan civilians wounded. Following the clash, Iran closed the main border crossing between the two countries, Milak-Zaranj, and threatened the Taliban-led government of Afghanistan with abandoning its policy of good-neighbourly relations.

There have also been angry statements from the Taliban. Abdul Hamid Khorasani, one of the movement's former field commanders, who previously led security forces in Panjsher province and then served as governor of Ahmedabad, issued a video message in which he threatened Iran with capture. He even promised that the Taliban would fight the Iranians "with more passion" than they had in their long-running conflict with the US. Although Khorasani's statement is not the official position of the Taliban government, as he holds no position within it, it nevertheless demonstrates the prevailing mood within the radical movement towards Iran.

Meanwhile, the immediate cause of the skirmish was a dispute over the rights to water from the Helmand River, which flows through the territory of both states. According to the 1973 Iran-Afghan agreement, at least 850 million cubic metres of water should annually flow to Iran, with downstream territories located along the river. Despite the complicated history of relations between the two countries, the treaty has been respected under all the governments in both countries, including during the Soviet and American occupations of Afghanistan.

Recently, however, Tehran has increasingly accused the Taliban government of violating the treaty and limiting the flow of water from Helmand to Iran's arid eastern regions. It insists that the Afghans are blocking and diverting the flow of water, using a reservoir on Afghan territory to irrigate their farming lands. As a result, the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan, home to more than a million people, is suffering from drought.

The Taliban denies the allegations. Referring to the effects of climate change and water scarcity, they argue that they are unable to release the amount of water stipulated by the treaty this year. The Taliban's refusal to allow Iranian experts to visit Afghanistan and make sure the river is not blocked does not help resolve the dispute either.

Tehran's insistence is also understandable, since the drought and water supply problem are complicating the socio-economic situation in Sistan and Balochistan. Widespread popular protests gripping Iran since last September have also affected the province, which is considered one of the poorest in the country. The province's ethnic and religious minorities intensify the unrest in Sistan and Balochistan too. The majority of Sistanis are Sunni Muslims in contrast to the ruling mullah regime, which predominantly consists of Shiite Iranians.

Thus, the Iranian authorities have no interest in exacerbating an already difficult situation in Sistan and Balochistan. Days before the border incident, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited the province and demanded that the Taliban not obstruct the flow of water from the Helmand River. "If our experts confirm that there is no water in the reservoir, then there is no question. But if there is water there, then you are obliged to ensure the rights of the people of Sistan and Balochistan province. Take my words seriously so that you don't regret later," Raisi warned the Taliban.

The threat from the Iranian leadership provoked a strong reaction from the Taliban, leading to an armed incident on the Afghan-Iranian border.

Binding ties

Paradoxically, before the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, Iran was supporting the movement in its war with the US-led NATO coalition. Moreover, Helmand was the key Afghan province used by Tehran to provide military and financial support to the Taliban. Experts believe that the main reason for Tehran's support of the Taliban until 2021 was Iran's need for water from the Helmand River. In other words, Iranians expected that the Taliban, once in power, would not interfere with the water supply to Iran's Sistan and Baluchistan provinces.

After the fall of the pro-Western government in Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power, Iran began to provide some economic assistance to the country, in particular through energy supplies and the construction of roads to increase cargo traffic. Even a few weeks before the border skirmish, the two sides inaugurated a new 225-kilometre railway line connecting the cities of Khaf in northeastern Iran and Herat in northwestern Afghanistan.

Iran has also demonstrated political allegiance to the new Afghan leadership. Although Tehran, like other states, has not officially recognised the Taliban government recognised by the international community as a terrorist organisation, there are regular contacts between the Iranian and Afghan authorities. Iran has even allowed the Taliban to use the Afghan embassy in Tehran. Then can the May border fighting lead to a serious conflict between Iran and Afghanistan?

A possible sign of such a conflict may be the accumulation of military equipment of both countries on the border. The Taliban have brought artillery systems, armoured vehicles and tanks to the border post of Islam Kale on the border with Iran. Iran is also deploying additional military equipment on its border with Afghanistan.

Such moves can obviously lead to a new phase of clashes. But full-scale war is unlikely. For one simple reason: neither Iran nor the Taliban are interested in it.

Nuances of interest

The Taliban do not need a serious confrontation with a neighbouring state. Not because Iran is more powerful than Afghanistan. In fact, the Taliban have serious problems with internal governance: the country is torn apart by the absence of effective government, a crumbling economy, growing social discontent, and a real threat of famine. And there is no prospect of overcoming these problems as soon as possible, because the Taliban government, unlike the former Afghan authorities, is not receiving any international assistance. Under such circumstances, there is no reason for the Taliban to drive itself into a war with Iran. Therefore, even before the border incident, Amir Khan Muttaki, foreign minister of the so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, as the Taliban call their regime, urged Iran to resolve the water supply issues "through face-to-face negotiations, not through media hype".

Obviously, Iran does not need a war with the Taliban either. Tehran realises that a large-scale conflict with the movement will not be easy, as it will have to contain a nearly 100,000-strong army accustomed to guerrilla warfare methods. This will require the introduction of enormous countermeasures along the 800km long Iran-Afghan border. Another important factor is the large amount of military equipment left by the Americans during their hasty evacuation from Afghanistan. Despite the evidence of the poor quality of American weapons left in Afghanistan, particularly as regards high accuracy, it is important that they can fire anyway. Therefore, there are comments highlighting the use by the Taliban of American M240 machine guns during the recent border incident.

There is also a conspiracy theory pointing at the US behind the current anti-Iranian activity of the Taliban. Washington is really interested in weakening Iran in the current geopolitical configuration, realising that the country has already become one of the key allies and partners of Russia and China, the main adversaries of the US in the international arena. Thus, the Taliban can well be used to achieve this goal, expecting to receive the Afghan assets frozen by the US in return.

However, whether the assumptions about external involvement in the Iran-Afghan confrontation are true or not, both Tehran and Kabul clearly do not want to see the situation escalate into a major conflict. Therefore, bilateral contacts to stabilise the situation are possible. Signals confirming this assumptions are coming from both sides, which are expressing their commitment to the 1973 agreement."The water agreement with Iran on water allocation from the Helmand River is a solution to any tension related to Iran's water rights. We are committed to this issue on the basis of the existing agreement... This issue must be resolved through dialogue," Abdul Latif Mansour, Minister of Energy and Water Resources of the Taliban government, said.