CELESTIAL MOVE

We are witnessing an unusual geopolitical jigsaw puzzle slowly but steadily shaping up in the Middle East. One of the latest pieces of this puzzle is a clear message from China about its intention to mediate in the Arab-Israeli conflict, calling for an immediate end to violence and a transition to a peaceful settlement. This news is particularly noteworthy amid Beijing's plan to end the war in Ukraine and the earlier Chinese contribution to the restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As expected, Washington regards these foreign policy moves by Beijing as an encroachment on its own diplomatic leadership in the Middle East.

Beijing ramping up

The Arab-Israeli issue pushed to the margins of global news by the coronavirus pandemic and the Ukrainian war cannot remain unresolved for decades. This has become particularly relevant after the recent escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict triggered by large-scale clashes on the Temple Mount and the storming of the Al-Aqsa mosque by Israeli security forces. Plus, the they continue operations in the West Bank.

Apparently, Beijing decided to tackle the issue seriously. During his meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in mid-June, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that Beijing wanted to help the Palestinians reach an internal agreement and begin negotiations with Israel. Chinese leadership even has a several-point proposal for this: establishing an independent state within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem being the capital of the state, improving the economic situation in Palestine, maintaining the status quo in Jerusalem's religious shrines, and resuming peace talks with Israel on the basis of UN resolutions. Xi Jinping also believes that Palestine should become a full member of the United Nations.

We can say that Abbas' visit to China was a logical follow-up to the December 2022 Arab-Chinese summit in Riyadh. Following the visit, both sides agreed on a strategic partnership. Thus, Palestine will join the One Belt, One Road initiative, as well as the following three new plans Beijing unveiled in recent months: Global Security Initiative, Global Civilisation Initiative and Global Development Initiative. From the economic point of view, China has long history of providing aid and assistance to Palestinians, including humanitarian and development support. Interestingly, President Xi underlined specifically a strategic partnership between China and Palestine, thereby raising the latter to the level of other countries in the region, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It is also worth mentioning the level of relations between China and Israel. For example, in recent years Beijing has invested billions of dollars in the Jewish state, including into technology, defence, science, telecommunications and shipping.

In other words, China enjoys established contacts and special relationship with both sides. Nevertheless, how will the Palestinian and Israeli reconciliation benefit China? In fact, there are benefits. China is trying to consolidate its success in brokering an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the first place. Secondly, by extending regional peace to the Palestinian-Israeli issue, China contributes to protecting its investments in the Middle East. Thirdly, Beijing is investing in its international image and credibility. And most importantly, it is challenging the US.

Negotiations initiated and held under the US auspices until 2014 have so far failed to resume, although the White House has never refused to moderate. Recently, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated US commitments to take care of Israel's security on the one hand and remain committed to the creation of a Palestinian state on the other. According to Blinken, the expansion of Jewish settlements will be an obstacle to peace. It means Washington actually supports the establishment of the two states, although it is not doing anything special in this direction, sort of a no-go position. Plus, the Trump administration has taken a controversial step, when Washington recognised the "indivisible" Jerusalem as the "capital" of Israel and decided to move the American embassy there.

Interests of the greats

Let's be clear here. If the US has failed over the years (let's put the reasons aside), can China succeed? Currently, the Palestinians need to resolve internal differences before they can make peace with Israel and assert their goals. Hamas, which rules Gaza, does not accept negotiations with Israel, while the Abbas-controlled forces in the West Bank have far more moderate demands. Thus, the Palestinians must somehow come to an agreement to speak unanimously, so that each side stops pulling the strings.

The same is true for Israel, where the right-wing government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu is not at all enthusiastic about giving up lands in the West Bank and recognising an independent Palestinian state. Convincing such a government to consider a two-state solution will be difficult, if not impossible. But is Beijing in a hurry? It has already established itself as a new actor in the Middle East. Even the very intention of taking on such a complex issue is a big advantage for China. 

All these factors will definitely help Beijing amid the extremely strained and worsening relations between the US and China. There was a dim perspective after the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's recent visit to China, where he even met with President Xi Jinping. Blinken also had an in-depth conversation with his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang, which lasted more than five hours and were almost encouraging. But then suddenly US President Joe Biden called President Xi "an offended dictator who doesn't know what's going on". He did so in the context of the incident with the ill-fated Chinese balloon that caused Blinken to cancel his February visit to Beijing. As expected, China responded that "disparaging remarks made by the US about the Chinese President are erroneous, absurd and irresponsible. It is nothing but an open political provocation".

As far as the Palestinian-Arab settlement is concerned, it is possible that Washington applies its own levers of pressure on Israel and Palestine to prevent them from drifting towards the Chinese negotiating track. After all, the US-Israeli relations at various levels, mutual interests and investments are not yet even close to those between Israel and China. Israel is certainly not going to risk its special relationship with the US.

Yet, it is clear that China has stopped relying solely on economic influence and has stepped up its foreign policy efforts. By exerting soft strategic pressure on the Israeli government and helping the Palestinian political unification, China can make progress. Everything will depend, among other things, on the global geopolitical situation.

However, Beijing has a major advantage over the US – it has no religious or ethnic ties to either side of the conflict, which is not the case with the White House. In other words, China may have significantly fewer pressure tools, but so far it has demonstrated a more balanced approach than the US. Apparently, the Palestinians, no matter what, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are willing to consider Beijing as an alternative to Washington. This turn of events may well challenge the US dominance in the region, significantly altering the geopolitical landscape.