IRAN TO COME OUT OF ISOLATION?

Talks between the US and Iran have made significant progress in recent days in an attempt to reach an understanding on Iran's nuclear programme. They have been held for months in Oman, thanks to mediation from the Sultan of Oman, Haisam bin Tarek Al Said.

The Israeli media claims that the process is proceeding faster than expected and that the parties will probably reach an agreement within a few weeks. Although there are still a number of unresolved issues.

The new nuclear deal will involve Iran agreeing to stop enriching uranium to a high percentage. In return, Tehran expects an easing of international sanctions imposed on it at the initiative of the US and the EU.

In the first phase, if the parties come to an agreement, it is planned to unfreeze $20 billion of Iranian assets. This is money held in bank accounts in South Korea, Iraq, and the IMF.

The US-Iran dialogue makes Israel unhappy

In order to build trust between the parties, Iran recently released three imprisoned Western nationals. In return, an Iranian diplomat imprisoned in Belgium for two years for his involvement in an attempted bombing in France was released.

Remarkably, an official of the US State Department welcomed the China-brokered agreement to normalise relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the opening of the Iranian embassy in Riyadh. In fact, Washington officially endorsed the military-political détente around Iran, which has been intensified through the mediation of its main rival, China.

By doing so, the US may have a purely pragmatic interest in preventing a new international conflict in the Middle East involving external actors, in particular the US itself. Currently, Washington is focused on supporting Ukraine and creating an effective global mechanism to contain China.

It is possible that Washington is implementing its policy in close coordination with Israel, its main ally in the region.

Recently, the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, and the chairman of Israel's National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, visited the US for talks with senior administration officials, including on the Iranian issue. It is reported that the White House and State Department assured the Israelis that new arrangements were not on the table and would take much longer.

Meanwhile, not many people in the US political leadership support the Israeli position. The Senate, which is responsible for ratifying foreign treaties, is currently controlled by the Democrats, and the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is negligible. Therefore, it is not expected that lawmakers seriously resist to the US administration in its willingness to reinstate the Iranian nuclear deal.

Robert Menendez, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, is among those in favour of reopening the Iran nuclear deal.

In general, the left wing of the Democratic Party promotes a more critical approach to Israel. Over the past year, the Biden administration has fended off more than a single attempt by Democratic senators and the House of Representatives to impose new conditions on military aid to Israel, a more thorough investigation into the death of US-Palestinian journalist Shirin Abu Akla and restrictions on Israeli settlement building in the West Bank.

Israel is also unhappy with the rapprochement of a number of leading Sunni states with Iran. Back in 2015, Israel tried to use the moderate Sunni countries, especially in the Gulf area, to prevent Washington from reaching an agreement with Iran. The then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used to say in his interviews and press briefings that Arab rulers of the Persian Gulf agreed with his firm opposition to the Iran nuclear deal, even if they refrained from making public statements.

Today talks with Iran go hand in hand with a trend towards Arab-Iranian rapprochement, including the opening of the Saudi embassy in Tehran in early June.

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, the Saudi Foreign Minister, noted in Tehran the importance of re-establishing ties with Iran, underlined the importance of cooperation between the two countries in regional security, especially maritime security, primarily in the Strait of Hormuz. The concentration of US and Iranian warships there has reached a limit that any of the parties, even a minor provocation can lead to a major conflict involving regional players as well. Saudi Arabia makes it clear that it is not at all enthusiastic about such prospects.

Iranian diplomat have not been sitting idly either. In the end of June, Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian visited Oman, Qatar and Kuwait, as if to consolidate Iran's success in the Arab world.

Israel therefore does not expect serious Arab opposition to any new arrangements, should they be reached in the coming weeks.

Iranian-Egyptian dialogue of regional format

Meanwhile, Iran is intensifying contacts with the leading Arab states.  On June 17, Iranian news agency Mehr reported that Iran and Egypt had reached a preliminary agreement to form a committee to re-establish relations and security coordination.

The Iranian-Saudi normalisation, as well as the intensification of the US-Iranian dialogue on the nuclear deal, have accelerated processes to restore ties between Tehran and other Arab countries, including Egypt.

Oman is particularly active in this regard. Sultan Haytham of Oman visited Tehran in May, following his trip to Cairo, where he also discussed with President Abdul-Fattah Khalil al-Sisi the normalisation of relations with Iran. It is speculated that the parties also discuss an imminent exchange of ambassadors between the countries, as well as the possibility of a meeting between the two presidents in the near future.

Oman's mediation was supported by the pro-Iranian Iraqi government in an attempt to bring the two countries closer together.

Numerous reports indicate that discussions have been underway in Baghdad since March 2023. For instance, Egyptian and Iranian officials met in Baghdad in April for substantive discussions to strengthen bilateral ties. Also in May, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian expressed optimism about the prospects for the development of relations between Iran and Egypt and praised the mutual measures to strengthen them.

There have also been reports that both sides are actively exploring the possibility of a meeting between Presidents Al-Sisi and Ebrahim Raisi. This indicates that talks between Cairo and Tehran have progressed significantly. In addition to these positive developments, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on May 29 welcomed the restoration of diplomatic contacts with Egypt during his meeting with the Sultan of Oman in Tehran. This further underlines the growing momentum to reduce tensions between the two countries.

Reconciliation with subtext

For Cairo, rapprochement with Tehran is important because it can achieve several important goals. First and foremost it needs to protect the Suez Canal and ensure the safe passage of ships through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in case of a full-scale conflict over Iran.

In addition, Cairo seeks to strengthen regional and strategic cooperation with Tehran on various urgent issues, including Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine. For example, Egypt's willingness to reduce tensions in the Gaza Strip is an important motive for rapprochement, given Iran's close relations with several Palestinian factions, particularly Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Cairo has an interest in maintaining stability in the border area and preventing military escalation with Israel. Egypt also plays a crucial role in the Palestinian reconciliation process, which requires engagement with Iran for stability in Gaza.

Developing economic and trade cooperation between Egypt and Iran is another key aspect, although it remains limited due to strained relations in the past. The economic aspect is vital for the Al-Sisi government, which is currently experiencing a severe economic crisis characterised by high inflation and a growing external debt. Re-establishing ties between Cairo and Tehran can encourage an inflow of Iranian tourists to Egypt, bringing in hard currency to the country. Moreover, Egypt can greatly benefit from expanding its exports to the Iranian market.

For Tehran, restoring and normalising dialogue with Egypt also offers huge advantages. Firstly, it will thwart isolation efforts by the US and Israel. It is known that Tel Aviv is actively working to build a regional alliance against Tehran involving some Gulf countries, Egypt and Jordan in order to limit Iran's influence and deter military activity. Therefore, a rapprochement between Egypt and Iran is a serious problem for Israel. Secondly, it will strengthen Iran's regional presence and protect its strategic interests in the Arab world. Especially since ties between Cairo and Tehran will deepen.

The process will also indirectly contribute to easing Iran's tensions in dialogue with the Gulf Arab states, as Egypt holds an important position as an ally of these countries. Establishing normal relations with Egypt can also pave the way for greater economic cooperation and access to the huge Egyptian market, which has a significant potential for Iranian commodities. This can increase financial benefits for Tehran, helping it alleviate the economic crisis.

The idea of rapprochement between Egypt and Iran is not new. Similar attempts have already been made in the past thirty years. However, there are two factors making the current process somewhat unique: the extent of the invested efforts and the changing regional and global dynamics. There were no concrete mediation steps in previous attempts. Instead, there were only encouraging statements from each side expressing a desire to improve relations. This time, however, Iraq and Oman have made extraordinary efforts to facilitate direct talks. If successful, this can seriously reshape all geopolitics in the Middle East.