THE HARDEST STEP

The first summit of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, also known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, and Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, collectively known as C5) took place on July 19 in Jeddah. Many global media outlets called it a very significant event. 

According to observers, the summit builds on the success of the ministerial meeting held in the same format in Riyadh last year and contributes to the development of a new political and economic space for Greater Eurasia. It is quite likely that the potential for co-operation between the GCC and Central Asian countries in various areas will indeed contribute to the the region's development both geopolitically and economically.

Joint plan

The major achievement of the Jeddah summit was the 2023-2027 Joint Action Plan for Strategic Dialogue and Cooperation (JAP)  on various areas, including economy, trade, education, tourism, security and culture. However, the main emphasis is on the economic component.

Last year saw a significant increase of the volume of investment from GCC countries into Central Asia. According to Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih, there are many investment opportunities in Central Asia in terms of tourism, renewable energy and hydroelectric power, agriculture and healthcare. This can also include nuclear energy, space industry, and strategic logistics. Therefore, JAP provides for the development of joint investment projects, interstate stimulation of mutual trade, and the creation of working groups on inter-sectoral co-operation, food and energy security.

There are plans to ensure cooperation for the development and use of RES and environmental protection. There was a call to intensify efforts to ensure energy security and sustainability of global food supply chains.

The summit participants also approved the specific proposals of the Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov on the establishment of a joint chamber of commerce of GCC and Central Asian states by the end of 2023, as well as Uzbekistan's proposal to create a visa-free tourist space between the GCC and Central Asia states.

As a regional, intergovernmental, political and economic advisory body, GCC is one of the most serious formats of cooperation and partnership along with the Arab League. It plays an important role in the region's various logistical plans, being, perhaps implicitly, the main goal of enhanced cooperation.

Located at an important geopolitical crossroads between Europe, Middle East and East and South Asia, Central Asia has for thousands of years served as one of the key routes for East-West trade on the continent. Given recent international developments, the role of this region is increasingly important, given that it is a converging point of the interests of many major players, including the US, the EU, Russia, China, Iran, India, Pakistan and Türkiye. Some of them share common interests, while others fiercely compete as rivals, forming together a tangled web of alliances and interests.

Together or apart?

According to some experts, to counterbalance the influence of major players (Russia, the US, China and the EU), Central Asian countries need to develop ties with authoritative regional powers and their alliances such as the GCC. There are different opinions on how to treat the C5 states in this context: as a separate regional unit or through bilateral partnerships?

The total area of the C5 republics is larger than the territory of India, while the total population is over 75 million. In addition, post-Soviet Central Asia is one of the largest Muslim regions in the world. Some believe that Central Asia is already a separate entity and no longer is considered Russia's backyard; that defends its sovereignty and will remain politically stable, at least in the near future. After all, Washington, Brussels, Beijing and Moscow have test the C5+ dialogue at different times.

Other experts, however, say that it is premature to consider the Central Asian countries as a single bloc due to a multitude of differences between them, especially the unresolved ones. This is true. As for the latter, the issues such as the consequences of climate change (especially in terms of water use and desertification), food and energy security, terrorism and drug trafficking cannot be solved alone. That's the reason why the Central Asian heads of state hold annuals meetings.

Other players

Cooperation between the Arab monarchies and Central Asian countries cannot be viewed in isolation from other regional players, with China being the strongest of them economically. Apparently, Beijing and the Arab states are playing in the same basket in this case. In fact, China's participation guarantees revenue in and of itself. Arab states understand this and do not mind against this powerful insurance. In May, the participants of the China-Central Asia summit held in Xi'an decided to promote the construction of transport corridors, maintain relations in various areas, including energy, high-tech and food security.

Relations between the West and Russia are determined by many factors, including geographical, historical, economic, etc. But the most important of them is the ongoing tough confrontation in Ukraine. The situation in the Dnieper basin will determine the future of the situation in Central Asia.

Finally, we can see the growing role of Türkiye in the region. We should note that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are culturally and linguistically Turkic states with active membership in the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS). Therefore, the organisation of an OTS-GCC summit is quite possible. Incidentally, a few days before the GCC-C5 summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan travelled to the Persian Gulf countries.

The next GCC-C5 meeting will be held next year in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The venue has a significant and symbolic value in terms of economic, cultural and religious ties going back centuries. Samarkand was one of the most important cities on the Silk Road, and it is perhaps where a new era for Central Asia will begin.

Undoubtedly, international interest in the Central Asian region will grow thanks to its significant natural resources and favourable geostrategic position.