ROAD TO PEACE

The expert community neglected Azerbaijan's road strategy after the 44-day Patriotic War. However, the situation substantially changed after the scale, quality, speed and strategic essence of new roads in the lands liberated from Armenian occupation became prominent.

In October 2022, Armenian field commander Serob Gasparian wrote in Hraparak: "[Azerbaijanis] have carried out complex construction works, laid new roads. All strategic heights around Jermuk are under Azerbaijani control. They have quickly restored the roads leading to positions. The quality of their new roads is so good that even a civilian can pass these mountains in a car. They are digging trenches thinking about their soldiers, use huge volumes of reinforced concrete for the construction of engineering facilities. They are working like ants."

Armen Ashotyan, head of the opposition Republican Party of Armenia, assessed the geography of the new roads in the liberated lands as follows: "Azerbaijan is going to strangle us with roads."

Apparently, roads and logistical facilities draw the attention of politicians, experts and observers at the current stage of the post-war settlement. Azerbaijan insists on switching humanitarian supplies for the Armenians of Garabagh to the Barda-Aghdam-Khankendi road. Armenians do not want to hear about anything but the Lachin corridor and demand unimpeded movement of people and goods along the corridor.

Blockade… because Armenians want it

During the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territories, there were two roads linking Garabagh to Armenia: Khankendi-Shusha-Lachin-Gorus and Aghdere-Kalbajar-Basarkechar. Shortly before the 44-day war, Nikol Pashinian announced the construction of the third one to the then occupied Jabrayil district of Azerbaijan bordering with Iran. In the first weeks after the war, Armenians tried to give a special status not only to the Lachin road, but also to the Aghdere-Kalbajar-Basarkechar route. And even ensure the control of these roads by Russian peacekeepers. But as expected, these plans never came true.

Till now, the Lachin road functioned under a special mode regulated by the Russian peacekeepers. In April 2023, Azerbaijan ran out of patience. Baku had repeatedly notified external players of the misuse of the route. According to the November 10, 2020 trilateral statement, the Lachin road had to be used exclusively for humanitarian transport. In reality, it has been used to transport mines, weapons, Armenian conscripts, stolen minerals and even the French presidential candidate Valerie Pecresse.

In response to these actions, rather inaction, the border crossing point (BCP) at the Hakari bridge was built. Armenians living in Khankendi immediately ranted about blockade, hunger, etc. However, there appeared a series of images in the social media showing Armenians enjoying restaurant parties and picnics.

Azerbaijan then stated that humanitarian cargo traffic to Garabagh may and must be delivered via the Barda-Aghdam-Khankendi road. Separatists categorically object to the proposal, which automatically transforms the situation into a "desired blockade".

Diplomatic news

Perhaps, Khankendi expected that the international community would put pressure on Baku. However, Azerbaijan has managed to secure its position in both Europe and Russia.

On July 15, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and EU President Charles Michel held regular talks in Brussels. As usual, Michel summarised the results of the meeting noting respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty, border delimitation and opening of communications. But speaking about the delivery of humanitarian goods, he also mentioned the Aghdam road, which shocked the Armenian establishment: "I emphasised the need to open the Lachin road. I also noted Azerbaijan's readiness to equally fulfil humanitarian deliveries through Aghdam. I regard both options as important and encourage humanitarian supplies from both sides to ensure that the needs of the population are met." Armenians pretended as if Michel had not said such things, then accused him of all mortal sins.

On July 25, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Moscow. Theoretically, Armenia could count on a revenge. After all, the Lachin corridor is under the control of Russian peacekeepers, and the Kremlin should be interested in preserving it as the only road between Garabagh and Armenia. But Azerbaijan managed to defend its position in this issue as well.

Then the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) released a statement, calling for the use of both the Lachin and Aghdam roads for the delivery of humanitarian supplies and the ICRC supplies to Garabagh. This was a diplomatic fiasco for Armenia.

Road means reintegration?

For Azerbaijan, the Aghdam road is not only a reliable control over the delivered cargoes. Cargo deliveries is part of the reintegration process for Garabagh Armenians in Azerbaijan legally, economically and socially. This is what President Ilham Aliyev stated at the recent Global Media Forum held in Shusha: "We are ready to follow the path of reintegration while respecting the rights and security of the Armenian minority in Garabagh in line with our constitution and good practices available in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is a multi-ethnic and multi-confessional state, and this is our strength. All ethnic groups living in Azerbaijan enjoy the same rights and obligations, the same level of security. I do not clearly understand why any ethnic group should stand out among the rest. This is our approach. We still hope that the sensible part of the public society living in and around Khankendi realises the futility of ignoring Azerbaijan. We hope that the common sense will prevail. Otherwise, only naive people can expect that someone will come and fight for them now. They had several stages to understand the situation and come to terms with the realities".

It seems, however, that not every Armenian is ready to put up with the realities. Even despite a series of diplomatic defeats. The Shusha Global Media Forum was a major shock for the Armenian top brass, as we can see from the hysteria in the media and various Telegram channels. Well, we are used to Armenian provocations in such cases. Thus, Yerevan sent a column of trucks with "humanitarian cargo" to the Lachin checkpoint without coordinating the move with Azerbaijan. They even invited European observers to the show.

After this prank Hikmet Hajiyev, aide to the President of Azerbaijan, posted the following statement on Twitter right after a meeting with foreign diplomats: "It is unacceptable to insist on the use of only the Lachin road, and to refuse the Aghdam road, to close this road, to politicise the issue. The international community should give a clear message about the use of the Aghdam-Khankendi road and the reintegration of the Armenian population of Garabagh into Azerbaijan. There is no other way! The game is over!"

Indeed, the game is over!