GEORGIAN SPLIT

The conflict between the Georgian government and ruling power represented by the Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia party and President Salome Zurabishvili is escalating. The former announced the launch of impeachment proceedings against the president, but the initiative does not seem to be a success.

Visits of discord

The reason for the impeachment was President Zurabishvili's European tour, which was not co-ordinated with the government. She travelled to Germany and France to meet with Presidents Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Emmanuel Macron, respectively, and held talks with the head of the Council of the European Union, Charles Michel, in Brussels.

Zurabishvili's main counterargument in her dispute with the Georgian Dream government was the discussions she held in Europe on issues related to Georgia's integration into the EU, especially the prospect of granting this South Caucasus country the status of an EU candidate state. However, Georgian Dream was adamant.

The government accuses President Zurabishvili of gross violation of the Georgian constitution. "According to our constitution, it is the government of Georgia that is responsible for conducting foreign and domestic policies. In some cases it can entrust the president to fulfil this function. With her visit to Europe, President Zurabishvili has defiantly violated the constitution without coordinating her moves with the government," Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili said.

In fact, the Georgian government refused to give its consent to Zurabishvili's European tour. According to Prime Minister Garibashvili, a few months ago the president publicly accused Georgia's highest executive body of failing to fulfil its obligations to obtain the EU accession status for the country. "She also stated that last year Georgia did not deserve this status. After such statements, it would be wrong to delegate any powers to the president," Garibashvili said.

As part of the impeachment procedure launched by the ruling party, the latter may submit an application to the Constitutional Court, which should be approved by at least 50 members of the 150-seat Georgian parliament. If the Constitutional Court confirms that the president has violated the constitution, parliament will seek for the verdict of the highest judicial body. But the declaration of impeachment requires the approval of 100 parliamentarians.

The result of the impeachment procedure will be known in early October. Given that the parliamentary majority has 84 mandates, it is impossible to declare Zurabishvili's impeachment without the opposition votes. That is why Georgian Dream has started consultations with opposition MPs to collect the missing signatures for impeachment.

Opposition to derail impeachment?

The Georgian opposition firmly states that it will not co-operate with the ruling force on the impeachment of President Zurabishivili. But apparently this does not affect the Georgian Dream's readiness to launch the impeachment procedure anyway. "It is impossible to make it true without the votes of the radical opposition. Yet, we have decided to initiate the procedure," admits Georgian Dream chairman Irakli Kobakhidze.

Meanwhile, according to the German Public Broadcasting Company, the Georgian opposition threatens President Zurabishvili with impeachment if she does not pardon the imprisoned ex-President Mikhail Saakashvili, who has been jailed for almost two years. For example, Anna Tsetelidze, a member of parliament from the United National Movement (UNM), now the largest opposition party founded by Saakashvili, said: "We believe that Salome Zurabishvili, if she positions herself as the defender of the Euro-Atlantic course for Georgia, should understand and make a decision about Mikhail Saakashvili, the creator of a modern state, and pardon him."

However, UNM denies holding any negotiations with Zurabishvili, confirming that the party is not going to support impeachment. Tsetelidze pointed out "the absurdity of linking the issue of Zurabishvili's impeachment and Mikhail Saakashvili's pardon".

The ruling power does not believe that there can be any deal between the president and the opposition related to Saakashvili either. According to Mamuka Mdinaradze, leader of the Georgian Dream faction, if Zurabishvili "pardons Saakashvili only because she is threatened with impeachment, it will be a political suicide on her side, with only few such incidents remembered in political history. I mean the incidents with incumbent presidents pardoning criminals just because they were threatened with the impeachment".

Meanwhile, the fact of such discussions only confirms that Saakashvili remains a serious factor in internal Georgian politics. In mid-June, the former president announced his decision to return to politics. This was also confirmed by Sofo Japaridze, a UNM member acting as Saakashvili's representative. Since the end of August she has been involved in the election campaign of the ex-president, with various actions and popular meetings in the regions of the country planned well in advance. Undoubtedly, this is a sign of the intensifying internal political struggle in Georgia just before the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2024.

Nuances of confrontation

The key factor in the current domestic political situation in Georgia is the confrontation between the ruling Georgian Dream party and President Zurabishvili. Although the latter has for many years been perceived as a political figure close to the Georgian Dream, her ascension to the presidential post was supported by the same ruling power and personally its founder and de facto leader, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Salome Zurabishvili comes from a family of Georgian political émigrés living in France (her paternal grandfather, Ivan Zurabishvili, was a member of the government of independent, pre-Soviet Georgia in 1918 and 1921) and spent almost 30 years as a diplomat in the Foreign Ministry of the Fifth Republic. In 2001, she was appointed head of the French National Defence Secretariat General for International Affairs and Strategy. Zurabishvili moved to her historic homeland twenty years ago, in 2003, in connection with her appointment as French Ambassador to Georgia. In March 2004, she was granted Georgian citizenship and took up the post of the Georgian Foreign Minister under the then President Mikhail Saakashvili, who believed that Georgia had "never had a diplomat of such a class as Salome".

However, the political alliance between Saakashvili and Zurabishvili lasted only a year and a half. In October 2005, Zurabishvili was dismissed as foreign minister, preceded by her harsh criticism of Georgia's then ruling United National Movement, which she accused of seeking to establish a "clan dictatorship" in the country.

Since then, Zurabishvili and Saakashvili's have followed different paths. She went into opposition, and in 2018, although she ran as an independent presidential candidate, she was backed by the ruling Georgian Dream. However, as president of Georgia, Zurabishvili did not get along with the ruling party for long. Less than a year later, she had serious disagreements with the government and the parliamentary majority. The crisis reached climax this year, when President Zurabishvili opposed the adoption of the law on foreign agents and openly supported mass protests against the initiative of the Georgian Dream. In her opinion, the relevant draft law, which was eventually withdrawn by the government under pressure from popular protests, was contrary to Georgia's EU accession course, as its main provisions were the same as a similar law adopted in Russia.

In general, at the root of contradictions between Zurabishvili and the Georgian Dream government are different ideas on Tbilisi's policy towards Russia. Zurabishvili is against establishing serious cooperation with Russia until Georgia's territorial integrity is restored and Moscow continues to recognise the rebellious Georgian autonomies of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region as "independent states". This position has become tougher after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, when Georgian authorities began taking steps that contradicted the EU's sanctions against Moscow.

While President Zurabishvili is in favour of Georgia joining the anti-Russian sanctions, the government and the Prime Minister personally have consistently stated that the country, in accordance with its national interests, primarily in the economic sphere, would not be involved in the West's harsh restrictive policies against Russia. The disagreement on this issue was most evident after Russia resumed direct flights to Georgia in May 2023. Georgian government responded favourably to Moscow's move, while Zurabishvili called it "yet another Russian provocation".

This situation is in line with the emerging image of the president as a consistent supporter of Tbilisi's Euro-Atlantic course and the Georgian Dream government as a political force loyal to Russia. However, this approach is rejected by the Georgian Dream government itself in the first place. It assures the fellow citizens of its commitment to European integration and accuses Zurabishvili of damaging Tbilisi's pro-Western strategy.

Voice of Europe

The Georgian Dream's official position on the president's uncoordinated European tour is also linked to the possible negative impact it will have on Tbilisi's foreign policy. Rejecting the frequent claims about the dreamers being pro-Russian, the ruling Georgian party explains the counterproductive nature of Zurabishvili's activities by arguing that they only create additional factors contributing to the EU's refusal to grant Georgia candidate status in the organisation.

But President Zurabishvili, her administration and circles close to her consider it unacceptable that the government is obstructing the visits of the head of state in the interests of Georgia's European integration. Especially since during these visits Zurabishvili does not sign any documents, but only holds talks about Georgia's moves towards becoming a candidate for EU accession.

What about the EU? Apparently, in the disputes between the Georgian president and the government, Brussels prefers to side with the former. That is how the EU confirms its certain dissatisfaction with the policy of the Georgian Dream, both internally (insufficient efforts to democratise the country) and externally (due to Tbilisi's refusal to follow a tough anti-Russian course).

During Salome Zurabishvili's visit to Brussels, President of the EU Council Charles Michel thanked her for her "extremely important efforts to bring Georgia closer to Europe". He believes these efforts stem from the need to continue "reforms of the Georgian judicial system, efforts to reduce corruption and the management of the state by oligarchs".

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel, who paid his first official visit to Georgia, was also unequivocal about the events in Georgia. Stating that "the issue of impeachment of the president is a risk that will further aggravate the situation and increase polarisation", Borrel in fact highlighted the demands of Brussels, which coincide with the position of Zurabishvili.

"The EU candidate country's status should be earned by implementing serious reforms," the European diplomat said. He added that "the EU expects its international partners, including Georgia, to make efforts to isolate Russia because of the conflict in Ukraine".

Brussels' support for Zurabishvili can be considered another important factor minimising the likelihood of impeachment of the Georgian president. Feeling strong support from the West, as well as enough support inside the country to be sure that the idea of impeachment cannot pass through parliament, Zurabishvili called on her detractors to "forget the dream" of her resignation. This means that she is ready for further confrontation with the Georgian Dream government. However, it also means that the ruling power, if successful in the coming election year, will decide on a new candidate for the post of the president.