THE BALKANS TRENDING AGAIN

Europe is experiencing the worst instability in decades, with the effects of climate change, the war in Ukraine, and the migration crisis. A particular threat to the EU is the situation in the Balkans, where the conflict between Belgrade and Pristina is escalating again.

Happy start

At the end of February 2023, Serbia and Kosovo almost agreed to a compromise proposal carefully crafted by Brussels and Washington. The eleven-point document stated that both sides would mutually recognise their national documents and symbols. Thus, Serbia was to refuse to block Kosovo's membership in international organisations, including the UN. In return, Kosovo would allow the Association of Serbian Communities dealing with Serbian issues in ten majority municipalities to operate in Kosovo and guarantee the protection of numerous medieval Serbian Orthodox churches and monasteries on its territory. However, nothing worked out then. As a result, Pristina is once again accusing Belgrade of trying to disturb the region, that is, to annex the northern part of Kosovo mainly populated by ethnic Serbs.

The recent European Political Community summit in Granada also failed to defuse tensions between Pristina and Belgrade. Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani refused to negotiate with his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic unless sanctions were imposed on Belgrade.

Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008 and has been recognised internationally. Serbia and a number of other countries, including China and Russia, do not recognise the independence of Kosovo. Of the 1.8 million people living in Kosovo, 92 per cent are Albanians and only 6% are ethnic Serbs. That is, according to various sources, from 50,000 to 120,000 Serbs live in Kosovo. Many of them remain loyal to Belgrade, especially in areas near the border with Serbia, where riots, protests and occasional violence frequently take place. Formally, Belgrade does not recognise any part of Kosovo as independent, although in fact it already accepted that status several years ago. This is what makes negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina mediated mainly by the EU possible. The problem is that the talks have so far yielded nothing in return. Obviously, with the growing of violence in this conflict, grows the distrust of the parties, as well as the long-standing hatred for each other. Accordingly, the likelihood of a compromise, with Serbia recognising Kosovo in exchange for some form of Serbian autonomy, decreases. Thus, this suspended state of conflict can potentially lead to bigger problems for the whole of Europe.

New incident

The latest and most serious clash took place near the village of Banjska in the municipality of Zvecan at the end of September.

Serbia claims that the acts of terror committed by the Albanian authorities of Kosovo in Pristina forced the Serbs of Kosovo and Metohija to fight back. On September 24, Kosovo Serbs clashed with the police after they tried to remove a pair of trucks set up by Serbs as barricades. According to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, he had warned of the incident before, and it eventually happened, Serbs revolted. Vucic emphasised that the dead were not terrorists, but the people "driven to the edge" by the Albanian authorities of Pristina. Thousands of people joined the funeral ceremony of the victims. It is reported that the Albanian police stopped one of the cars in the funeral procession, dragged a Serb from the car and took him to an unknown destination. "The moment Pristina chose for the detention shows the intention of Kurti and his extremists to burden the lives of Serbs with detentions, false accusations, beatings, nationalistc insults, to force them to leave their homes and the north of Kosovo and Metohija, thus cleansing it of Serbs," the Serbian government's Office for Kosovo and Metohija commented on the incident.

Pristina has a different version of the story. It claims that Serbian criminal groups attacked police officers near the village of Banjska in the northern part of the province, killing one police officer. The armed groups then barricaded themselves inside the Banjska monastery. Kosovo police responded with fire, killing four Serbs. Kosovo's Interior Ministry stated that they found weapons in residential buildings as well as in cars on the highway and near the Banjska Monastery. Prime Minister Albin Kurti said Kosovo authorities also had in their possession documents outlining a plan to seize the village of Banjska. Moreover, this is only one of dozens of planned provocations in the region. Kurti said Belgrade planned to annex northern Kosovo through the coordinated seizure of a number of sites. "Establishing a corridor to Serbia would open the way for the supply of weapons and transfer of personnel," the Kosovo prime minister wrote on Twitter.

Belgrade sent additional troops and heavy equipment to the border with Kosovo after the incident in Banjska, which naturally provoked a negative reaction from the West. The US called on Serbia to withdraw forces from Kosovo. John Kirby, Strategic Communications Coordinator for the US National Security Council, called Belgrade's actions "extremely destabilising". He noted that the attack was "very well prepared" as it involved 20 vehicles, army weapons, equipment and trained people.

The Serbian leader responded in his interview with The Financial Times that it was not his intention to order the army to cross the administrative border with Kosovo because Belgrade was not seeking escalation. He announced the withdrawal of some Serbian troops from the border and called on the NATO contingent to take over security in the north of the province.  It later emerged that the NATO peacekeepers in Kosovo (KFOR) would "expand its presence". NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that the alliance was ready to reinforce the KFOR contingent to enable it to cope with the situation.

Anything is possible now?

Serbian troops move to the administrative border with Kosovo with every new incident. It is clear that Belgrade does not have enough power to take more decisive actions. That is why it cannot and will not fight against NATO. But there are at least two factors that keep Belgrade vigilant. Firstly, given the generally unstable international situation and recent events around the world, there is a feeling that everything is possible now. So it is possible that Serbian troops do cross the border to stand by and protect the Serbian population of Northern Kosovo by all means.

Secondly, the existing situation with all the skirmishes strains both Brussels and the international community, even though the conflict has not grown into a major war. Plus, proxy wars are becoming more sophisticated with every passing day. It is therefore possible that third parties can use the conflict to their own advantage. For example, some Western commentators closely associate the actions of extreme right-wing Serbian ultranationalists with Moscow, claiming that it urgently needs to draw the West's attention away from Ukraine.

By the way, the Russian Foreign Ministry called the aggravation in Kosovo "a direct consequence of the policy conducted by the incumbent prime minister of the self-proclaimed republic, Albin Kurti, to cleanse the territory of the region of Serbs". According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, all of Kurti's attempts to bring additional Western pressure on the Serbian leadership by inflaming the situation in order to force Belgrade to recognise Kosovo's independence are a "constant game with fire", which costs too much and brings the entire Balkan region to a dangerous brink.

On the other hand, some Western media outlets report about the role of Milan Radoicic, deputy chairman of the Serbian party Srpska Lista (Serbian List). Allegedly, the existing situation is a result of his intention to get rid of Vucic's influence. This adds a whole new dimension to the story.

Either way, the main factor—the issue of establishing the Association of Serbian Communities—is still relevant. It seems that it is the EU that should have the last word here. Brussels should increase pressure on both sides to conclude an agreement. But will it have enough leverage and motives to convince to convince the stakeholders?