FRIEND OR FOE

Since the collapse of the USSR, the geopolitical architecture of the South Caucasus has strengthened. It is thus widely accepted that Georgia is Western-oriented because it officially declared its intention to join the EU and NATO, Azerbaijan is part of the Non-Aligned Movement and pursues an independent policy, making it clear that Baku maintains cool relations with both Moscow and Brussels in their integration projects, while Armenia initially chose a pro-Russian course.

But today relations between Moscow and Yerevan are undergoing a serious strength test and failing each passing day. Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinian demonstrates that he has been deeply insulted by Moscow, which allowed Azerbaijan first to win the 44-day war in autumn 2020 and then to defeat the junta in Khankendi. Even before Azerbaijan's local anti-terrorist raids, Pashinian had refused to participate in joint the CSTO military exercises. Now Yerevan is openly hinting at seeking new partners in security and military co-operation, with France topping the list. There are discussions going on in Yerevan regarding the shutdown of Russian television channels. Most importantly, the Armenian government has submitted the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to the parliament for ratification. And the parliament ratified it!

Defeat is always an orphan

How fair are Yerevan's current reproaches to Moscow? Before and during the 44-day war, an unprecedented amount of weapons declared as construction materials and humanitarian aid were delivered from Russia to Armenia on transport planes. It was Moscow that saved Yerevan from final defeat in November 2020 and allowed Pashinian to preserve the remnants of his army. Finally, the fights have taken place outside the CSTO area of responsibility and Russia-Armenia bilateral treaties on military co-operation. Russia has fulfilled its allied obligations to Armenia and is fulfilling them carefully.

Perhaps Pashinian is just looking for someone to blame. On a psychological level, this is quite understandable. Besides, Russia has enough problems amid the ongoing Ukrainian war. It really cannot provide Armenia with military support in the previous volumes, feeling it is not the best time to declare it out loud. But Yerevan's ranting on the so-called betrayal of Armenians looks much more convincing.

In Armenia, they don't like bringing up to memory the role of Russian support in the Armenian territorial occupation policy in the early 1990s. Up until the start of the 44-day war, Armenian military propaganda had been propagating the idea of Armenians being a nation of warriors, as opposed to Azerbaijanis they liked seeing incapable of fighting. But is Yerevan represented by Pashinian really ready for a final break with Moscow?

Revolution has a beginning...

It is possible to assume that Nikol Pashinian, also known as the leader of the s-called revolution that brought him to power under pro-Western slogans, has finally decided to implement the foreign policy programme of his revolution. But, firstly, the recent history of Armenia has known many such voyages to the West that ended in nothing. Suffice to recall how Serzh Sargsyan negotiated with the EU on signing an association agreement. Then there were speculations about Armenia's transition to the Western camp. But then Sargsyan was summoned to Moscow and reminded about the gas prices, followed by Armenia joining the EAEU instead of the association agreement with the EU.

Experts believe that Pashinian's rhetoric sounds very effective today. But at the same time, the pro-Western prime minister does not even try to reduce Armenia's real dependence on Russia. Yerevan does not take control of its own borders with Iran and Türkiye guarded by Russia's FSB, nor even the checkpoints at international airports also guarded by Russians. In fact, the Russian Federation owns or concessionally manages the whole network of Armenia's railways, cellular communications, electricity and gas networks… Even the Armenian army has groups of ground forces and air defence forces jointly operated with Russians. Pashinian is not even trying to revise any of existing agreements.

There have been precedents in Armenia's history when Yerevan would raise the degree of criticism and claims against Moscow to unprecedented levels, but then, after some bargaining for certain preferences, obediently retreated. Even when Pashinian started to refuse joint military exercises within the CSTO, experts reminded: his refusal came after the large-scale joint exercises of Azerbaijan and Türkiye. Pashinian was very interested in having something equally large with Russians on his territory. But now it is unclear whether Pashinian really intends to turn the course of Armenia towards the West or to bargain for more substantial military support from Russia. It is true that Azerbaijan has defused the grey zone in Garabagh, but there is still a conditional border....

The red line Yerevan missed

Experts believe that Pashinian is playing a risky game. Yerevan's decision to ratify the Rome Statute may turn out to be a fatal mistake for the country. Armenia signed this document several years ago. It was dusting somewhere in the archives, waiting for its turn. Then Yerevan decided to ratify the statute right when the ICC issued a wanted warrant for Vladimir Putin. Armenia's representatives can, of course, convince everyone and themselves that this step is not against Russia. In Moscow, however, the decision has been regarded as an extremely unfriendly gesture, and even a personal attack against Vladimir Putin. Yerevan's thank you for what the Russian president did to pull 25,000 Armenian soldiers and officers out of the hellfire back in November 2020...

It is possible that Yerevan wanted to hear a loud message from the West—"yeah, we hear many pleasant words, but get no real support". And apparently none of the new partners of Armenia is willing to support Yerevan to the same extent as Moscow has done until recently. A lot of gestures and promises, but nothing real. Thus, Yerevan assumed that the ratification of the Rome Statute in parallel with a series of visits by delegations from leading Western countries could attract attention and contribute to certain dividends.

But Western partners do not go further than words. Yet, Moscow's reaction may be completely different. Perhaps Pashinian lacks even trivial political experience and intuition, failing to see the red lines for the Kremlin, which is unlikely to forgive a personal attack against Vladimir Putin.

Countdown to return move

Moscow has yet to start aligning the political field in Armenia to its full potential. There is also no economic pressure on Yerevan yet—a few trucks with Armenian brandy stuck at the Upper Lars checkpoint are nothing more than a warning. The real pressure will begin when the Kremlin announces that from now on Armenia will have to buy oil and gas at world prices. In addition, Moscow can seriously influence the railway and energy sectors of Armenia... Under such circumstances, the anti-Pashinian opposition will have a much better chance of success. Not to mention that there are enough pro-Russian forces in the army. During the 2018 revolution Pashinian and his supporters won the street confrontation thanks to the soldiers of the Armenian peacekeeping brigade who joined them. What if the army units join his opponents this time? Pashinian has already survived one attempted military coup. But it was such a masquerade. What about a more serious attempt of a military coup starts at 26 Baghramyan St.?