COLLAPSE OF DESTRUCTIVISM

Local anti-terrorist operation of the Azerbaijani army in the Garabagh economic region, as well as the results of this operation have significantly changed the course of measures set to resole the issues remaining after the 44-day war. In particular, recent events intensified European diplomacy through the reaction of both individual EU political circles and European institutions to the emerging situation. Thus, the European Political Community summit in Granada was supposed to be a platform to discuss the situation with the participation of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the heads of France and Germany. But the meeting failed miserably and demonstrated the obvious failure of the European diplomacy in general due to the absence of the Azerbaijani president.

Strange concerns

Indeed, the immense sympathy of Paris and some representatives of the EU political leadership towards Armenia is indicative of the exclusively pro-Armenian position of the main European political circles as far as the events in the region are concerned. For example, in his interview with Euronews, President of the EU Council Charles Michel expressed his position on the restoration of Azerbaijan's full sovereignty over the entirety of its territories, and yet complained that the Azerbaijani actions resulted in the mass exodus of the Armenian population of Garabagh. At the same time, he emphasised that Russia had failed to ensure peace and security "around Nagorno-Karabakh".

"The situation is clear. It is quite obvious that Russia has betrayed the Armenian population. Russia expressed its intention to have its soldiers there to guarantee stability and security agreements. And we see that this military operation was launched without the slightest reaction from Russia, which was on the scene, unlike the European Union, which has no military presence there, as you know," Michel noted.

In other words, Michel means that if there were international forces in Garabagh staffed by European representatives instead of Russian peacekeepers, they would have opposed the anti-terrorist operation of Azerbaijan. And they would have actually defended the separatist regime by entering into an armed confrontation with the Azerbaijani army.

Interestingly, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, who visited Yerevan on the same day, repeated Michel's words almost word for word, having also accused Moscow of failing to fulfil its commitments under the November 9, 2020 trilateral statement.

She also showed her support to the statements and actions of the Armenian leadership and promising Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian to continue to provide all necessary assistance. The French Minister also announced the possibility of concluding an agreement on the supply of French arms to Yerevan.  This confirmed the plans to increase French military-technical presence in Armenia amidst the suspension of arms supplies from Russia. In other words, in addition to diplomatic or political support, Armenia will also receive military support, that is—the military influence of Paris on Yerevan. This is no longer just a diplomatic game but a dangerous game with weapons with very unpredictable results. Moreover, new allies of Armenia demonstrate their position of defendants of Yerevan's interests so zealously that it sometimes seems that Armenian interests are above their own.

At the 53rd summit of the Council of Heads of CIS Security Bodies and Special Services in Baku, President Ilham Aliyev harshly criticised the destructive and provocative role of the French leadership since 2020: "Numerous accusations, groundless threats and blackmailing against Azerbaijan have had no effect. Recent statement of the French president that Azerbaijan has problems with international law sound ridiculous since Azerbaijan has not violated international law".  He further emphasised that Azerbaijan fought on its own territory. "We suppressed separatism, we observed all humanitarian norms, all Geneva Conventions. Yet, international law has been violated for thirty years by France's protégé and main ally, Armenia, which occupied the territory of another state. As the saying goes, Paris should sweep its own porch clean first," Aliyev noted.

Wanna join us?

Paris does not even hide it is allied relations with Armenia in its actions against Azerbaijan, which causes outright resentment in Baku. The problem is that it is also trying to draw Germany and the EU leadership into this adventure.

Thus, the German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published an article called Lonely Saviour in Yerevan, which claims that French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna is actively pushing the EU to side with Armenia more decisively. It is reported that Colonna tried to get the French Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock to travel with her on her latest trip to Yerevan. According to the French, it is extremely important for Berlin and Paris to act united politically in in their stance on Armenia, thus setting a direction for the entire European Union. Yet, Berlin confirmed through Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that it did not accept Colonna's proposal to make a joint trip to Yerevan.

Despite its support for the French policy in the region, Germany does not want to take a backseat in the venture led by its ally and geopolitical rival Paris. For France, however, it is important to become the flagship of the West in Armenia and get involved in the development of the regional geopolitical agenda, thanks to its special relationship with the country.

Politico reported that on September 17, two days before the anti-terrorist operation in Garabagh, US, EU and Russian special representatives for the region Louis Bono, Toivo Klaar and Igor Khovayev held secret talks on the situation in Garabagh in Istanbul. A senior diplomat told the newspaper that the goal of negotiators was to put pressure on Baku to end the nine-month blockade of Garabagh and open a corridor for humanitarian aid convoys from Armenia.

"According to the source, the meeting focused on 'how to get those damn trucks moving,'" Politico reported.

Supposedly, Western representatives offered Moscow to agree to form an international mechanism in Garabagh as part of a long-term mission, which would allow Russia to maintain its position in the region beyond 2025, i.e., after the withdrawal of the Russian Peacekeeping Contingent (RPC).

Yet, subsequent events show that the parties failed to reach any agreement. According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, the initiative for the meeting came from the West, and Moscow agreed to it only to clarify its positions. We can assume that Moscow's refusal of such proposals is based on the understanding that by allowing any agreements with the West, it may lose its exclusivity. With Azerbaijan and Russia on the ground, external players cannot be the contracting parties. And the agreements between Moscow and Baku, including on the situation in Garabagh, exclude the possibility for external players to interfere in the regional agenda.

Apparently, amid the aggravated relations between Baku and the West, Moscow simply refused to play into the hands of Western countries and to give them an opportunity to strengthen their positions in the region.

Meanwhile, attempts by Western countries, in particular the leaders of a number of EU states and the EU leadership, to put pressure on Baku have failed, with President Ilham Aliyev having refused to visit Granada.

The European Parliament resolution adopted two days before the summit in Granada, which demanded the "adoption of targeted sanctions against the representatives of the Azerbaijani government", added fuel to the fire. One of the paragraphs of the proposed document notes: "It is necessary to suspend all oil and gas imports from Azerbaijan to the EU in case of military aggression against the territorial integrity of Armenia".

Under such conditions, it made no sense for Ilham Aliyev to go to Brussels. Moreover, Turkish President Erdogan, who fully shares Baku's position and could have supported the Azerbaijani president, did not go to Spain either. It is quite likely that it was President Macron who insisted that the Turkish president did not join the meeting planned directly with Aliyev and Pashinian.

It is therefore clear that the French leader was trying to play his own game in Granada, positioning President Aliyev as an extra, merely as an observer in his pre-planned agenda, where Türkiye's interests would be ignored. In fact, the absence of presidents Aliyev and Erdogan foiled these plans.

There is still hope

Armenian narratives in European politics is a topic of separate lengthy discussions. But quite unfortunately, when talking about the future of the Karabakh Armenians and their security, European politicians show little interest in the fate of Azerbaijani refugees and IDPs, who still cannot return to their homes despite Azerbaijan's de-occupation of its territories mostly destroyed and literally wiped off the face of the earth. In addition, almost every inch there is mined by Armenians.

European politicians remain persistently silent of Azerbaijan's insistent offers to Garabagh Armenians to participate in reintegration into Azerbaijani society. This process is supposed to be implemented in stages and involves every Azerbaijani citizen, provided that they have lived in the region before the conflict began in 1988.

By the way, nobody guaranteed any security to Azerbaijanis expelled from their native places thirty and more years ago, let alone ensuring their elementary rights.  In such a situation, the position of the EU on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict looks strange: "It is necessary to protect the Garabagh Armenians from Baku's actions at all costs. Reaction of the Azerbaijani side, including Azerbaijani society, is not so important in this case" (?!).

Nevertheless, given the positive experience accumulated within the European mediation process and the desire to finalise the previously reached agreements, Baku agreed to the proposal of the head of the European Union to hold another meeting in Brussels, but without the participation of the French president and the German chancellor.

Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Presidential Administration, Hikmet Hajiyev, expressed Baku's opinion on this initiative: "Azerbaijan also supports direct dialogue and bilateral negotiations between Baku and Yerevan on the normalisation of relations and signing a peace treaty". So, Baku signalled its readiness for further negotiations with Armenia without mediators, including on the key topic—the conclusion of a peace treaty between the parties.

"We are ready to continue working on a peace treaty. In case the mediation of the Russian Federation is rejected by Armenia, I think that direct negotiations between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia may be an alternative. We will review any other platforms considering the attitude of countries offering their services to the truth—not to Azerbaijan, but to the truth and international law," Ilham Aliyev said to emphasise the need to hold negotiations with Armenia without mediators. We hope his message was heard well by those to whom it was addressed.