FRENCH HOPES

The words France and Armenia become increasingly associated as far as the political chronicle of the South Caucasus is concerned. Recently, Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, travelled to Paris to attend the Paris Peace Forum—yet another attempt by the head of the Armenian government to show his loyalty even at insignificant events. Despite the title of the forum, moderator's questions to Pashinyan and his responses did not at all reflect any commitment to the peace agenda. Pashinyan called his visit as a new round of interesting processes taking place between France and Armenia.

In general, Yerevan and Paris have had special relations even in the Soviet years, when citizens of the Armenian SSR were allowed to communicate with their compatriots abroad. Half a million Armenians active and well integrated into French society have cemented these relations quite well. After gaining independence, Armenia even became a member of the Francophonie, although it was never a French colony or part of its sphere of interest.

Now these traditional links have been given a different and very disturbing reading.

Militaristic flirting

Perhaps it makes sense to divide the political process between Paris and Yerevan into components. Nikol Pashinyan is mortally upset with Moscow for not helping him win the second war in Garabagh, even though Russian peacekeepers were there, and for allowing the defeat of the illegal junta in September 2023. In addition, Moscow did not react (and did not push through the CSTO) to Azerbaijan's alleged invasion of Armenia's sovereign territory and ceased shipping to Yerevan the previously promised weapons.

However, experts would hardly agree to call it "Russia's betrayal of Armenia", as Moscow has always fulfilled all of its allied obligations to Yerevan. During the 44-day war and in September 2023, the hostilities took place outside Armenia and, accordingly, outside the CSTO zone of responsibility and the bilateral agreements between Moscow and Yerevan. Nor was there any "invasion of sovereign territory of Armenia". There is still no clear border line between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The initial attempt to delimit the border between the two republics through Russian mediation has brought Azerbaijan arable lands, strategic heights, the Meghri-Yerevan road and even a wind farm. Obviously, the maps of the USSR General Staff, where the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are indicated most precisely, are read very well in Moscow. They know that it is incorrect to speak about "invasion" unless the borderline with a multitude of heights and gorges remains undemarcated. And they are least willing to damage their image for the sake of Armenia's territorial appetites.

Due to sanctions and war, Russia has no opportunities to provide Armenia with military and political support as it did in the 1990s. This forces Yerevan to look for new allies, or rather patrons, preferably among Western powers.

Many Western countries, from the US to Lithuania, are trying to take advantage of Yerevan's resentment towards Moscow and steal its once favourite outpost from Russia. But France is ready to go further than others. Paris is already promising Yerevan air defence radars, surface-to-air missile systems Mistral, assistance in training the Armenian military, etc. President Macron, amidst all the internal problems of France (to which he contributed himself as well) - social, yellow waistcoats, geopolitical failures in Africa - really needs the votes of French ethnic Armenians. But not only.

Napoleonic plans with Armenian accent

Remarkably, for several years Emmanuel Macron has been trying to restore the former glory of France. But there is no way to realise this in practice. In reality, France is experiencing a series of geopolitical defeats: worsening issues in Libya and Africa in general, as well as the position Paris lost in the Pacific Ocean to Washington, London and Canberra... In these conditions, Armenia was and still is a promising proxy. It is located at a very sensitive point, has territorial claims to practically all its neighbours and it is easy to use as a tool of pressure on Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Georgia and Iran. Moreover, if Paris manages to lure a CSTO member state into the Western camp, French diplomacy will effectively punch its allies on the nose. Especial since its fiasco in Africa, Paris urgently needs a precedent to expand its sphere of interest. In other words, France and Armenia have found each other to make a perfect match. But what are the chances and prospects of this alliance?

Learn your craft!

This slogan popular among the military is the best way to assess the prospects for Armenian-French military co-operation. In theory, everything is fine: Paris has a new ally, while Yerevan has a new patron in the West. But in practice...

Many military experts believe that the radars and air defence systems promised to Armenia are unlikely to be able to fundamentally change the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Besides, experts say, these radars are long outdated and not very effective in mountainous terrain. In other words, it is just a lame French excuse. Apparently, the Armenian army needs several billion dollars to buy weapons to get itself back to the state it was before September 27, 2020. France cannot even theoretically make such gifts. Its military potential is obviously limited. Otherwise, it would not lose its colonies in Africa like the falling domino pieces. At the same time, Paris realises that Pashinyan has not revised or cancelled a single decision and cooperation agreement with Moscow. Armenia does not intend to leave the CSTO and EAEU, its borders with Iran and Türkiye, as well as international airports are still guarded by Russian border guards. Moscow controls the railways, cellular communications, electricity and gas networks of the country... Therefore, it is at least silly to speak of Armenia becoming an ally of France. Rather, we can define such moves as gestures enough to nullify relations between Paris and Baku. It is still questionable whether Paris has managed to achieve something in Yerevan. The French side is cautious. With all its love for Armenia, Paris would not want Yerevan to rush back to Moscow after receiving modern and effective weapons from France. After all, Armenian foreign policy made a similar U-turn back in 2013, not because of the weapons though. But apparently the Armenian foreign policy is inherently prone to treason anyway. By the way, Moscow has yet to use all its potential to put pressure on Yerevan.

As recent events show, Armenia is showing disappointment with Paris, which was expected to demonstrate a better performance.

Nuclear bomb undermining French plans

Now France has another serious reason to be cautious. Emmanuel Macron's visit to Central Asia has made quite a stir. Until recently, the region had been considered Russia's sole fiefdom. Today, geopolitical passions are boiling there. For Macron, this visit is of particular importance. France doesn't want to be late for the party. After the coup in Niger, ending with the hastily withdrawal of French troops from the country, Paris has lost access to uranium mines. Without uranium, French nuclear power plants will not work. This is especially noticeable now when neither Russian gas nor electricity from Ukraine's nuclear power plants is supplied to the European market. It seems that France has somehow reached an agreement on uranium supplies from Kazakhstan. But, firstly, it still has to be transported to France. Uranium ore is not delivered by air, at least in the civilised world. Transit through the Russian territory due to the war in Ukraine is also impossible for obvious reasons. China is unlikely to give its consent either. This means that it will be necessary to negotiate with Azerbaijan and think hard about the previous gestures to Yerevan.

All these realities make it likely that the French flirt with Armenia will cease very soon. Even without loud declarations.