DIALOGUE WITH NO COMMITMENTS

The meeting between the US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit left the outcome of the event in the shadows. Plus, it left behind even such urgent international topics as the conflict in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East.

Battle of the Titans

This is not surprising, as it is about two global players whose relationship significantly affects the course of political and economic processes in different parts of the world. The combined share of the US and China in global GDP is almost 40% (the US – 24.41% and China – 15%). The bilateral trade indicators for 2022 exceeded $750b, an all-time record. Therefore, any sharp deterioration in relations between them could have catastrophic consequences for the world economy, not to mention the negative impact on global politics.

Both Beijing and Washington realise the true cost of confrontation. Therefore, over the past months, the parties have been trying to agree on key areas of co-operation. Due to major problems in bilateral relations, preparations for the summit took quite a long time. It was accompanied by talks between the foreign ministers of the two countries in June in Beijing and in November in Washington, as well as visits by numerous delegations in between.

After more than four hours of talks at a historic estate in the hills south of San Francisco, CA, the leaders agreed to cooperate and continue their dialogue, according to major tabloids. Biden even said he and Xi agreed that they should be able to pick up the phone and talk to each other whenever they want.

Xi Jinping praised the results of the meeting, too. In his address to US business leaders in San Francisco, President Xi said that "our corporations have enough space, and we are fully capable of helping each other succeed and achieve mutually beneficial results." Admittedly, none of this means that the summit can change the vector of bilateral relations.

Dictator, but a partner

Biden still maintains his tough rhetoric regarding China's policy in front of the American public. After all, he needs to demonstrate his superiority over his main strategic adversary before the upcoming presidential elections and show that this is not a dialogue between equally powerful parties, the US being the more powerful one.

Speaking at a press conference after hours of talks, Biden said he did not shy away from a harsh tone when talking to his Chinese counterpart. Biden again used the word "dictator" to characterise the Chinese president.

"I know this man. I know his modus operandi. He's a dictator in the sense that he runs a communist country based on a form of government quite different from ours," the US president said.

Could this have pleased Xi Jinping? The answer is obvious. The first time Biden called him a "dictator," a real diplomatic scandal broke out between the countries.

This time a scandal was avoided. The talks resulted in several agreements that could bring stability to the uneasy relations between the two countries. Therefore, this time China decided not to intensify the tension.

Observers note that Xi's meeting with Biden, six years after the Chinese leader's last visit to the US, was more restrained than the one he had with Biden's predecessor, Donald Trump. It looked like a business meeting, with no goal of improving the emotional component of bilateral relations.

In April 2017, Trump welcomed Xi Jinping to his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida less than three months after taking office. The meeting had some emotional moments. Trump's grandchildren sang the popular Chinese folk song Jasmine Flower and recited classic Chinese poetry to make Xi Jinping and first lady Peng Liyuan "feel at home".

The mood at Xi Jinping's meeting with Biden, which was not held at the US president's private residence, was more businesslike and tense. The atmosphere was much less relaxed as the two leaders discussed a wide range of complex issues, from the nature of bilateral relations to Taiwan and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

Nevertheless, the cautious optimism at the end of the talks between the leaders of the two superpowers suggests that there will be no large-scale confrontation between them in the foreseeable future.

From Taiwan to pandas

The key agreement between the two was the one on the resumption of high-level dialogue between the militaries of both nations. The communication was suspended last year after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's scandalous visit to Taiwan. And Biden expressed satisfaction with the consensus reached on the issue.

Another significant agreement between Biden and Xi concerns fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans each year. China banned exports of fentanyl in 2019, but manufacturers of the illegal drug have adapted. And now most of the components of the drug's precursors come from China. The new deal will increase harsh measures against companies that sell precursors and pill presses.

President Biden also said that he and Xi agreed to begin a dialogue on the management of artificial intelligence. Beijing has decided to invite 50,000 young Americans to China for exchange and training programmes over the next five years.

Both leaders share the desire to avoid a direct military clash, but the Taiwan issue continues to be the most pressing in bilateral relations. According to a senior US official, Xi Jinping also commented on the issue. He emphasised that Taiwan was the "biggest" and "most potentially dangerous" issue standing between the two nations.

In addition, Beijing reports that Biden and Xi want to establish "dialogue mechanisms" on foreign policy and shipping security, as well as more airline flights.

While Xi's visit has not changed the vector of bilateral relations between the US and China, it has at least allayed fears over the fate of Chinese pandas. Speaking at a dinner in San Francisco, Xi Jinping said he took note of the fact that some Americans did not want Chinese pandas to leave the US territory – prior to that three of them had been sent back to China. 

China is the only country with wild pandas and it provides or leases them to zoos around the world as a goodwill gesture. "We are willing to continue co-operation with the US in panda conservation and do our best to meet the wishes of Californians to deepen the friendly ties between our nations," said Xi, causing a thunder of applause.

From global issues to mutual business

Biden and Xi recognised that they had a responsibility to manage their relationship properly. However, Xi emphasised that "planet Earth is big enough for both countries to succeed, and the success of one opens up opportunities for the other."

So the involvement of both countries in the Middle East crisis may well be a chance to test the effectiveness of bilateral agreements. According to US officials, Biden asked Beijing to urge Iran to take active steps to de-escalate the situation as the war between Israel and Hamas drags on. In response, Beijing said it had spoken to Tehran about potential risks in the region.

The war between Russia and Ukraine also continues to be the subject of high-level bilateral talks. In San Francisco, Biden urged Xi to continue to withhold military support for Moscow.

A lot has changed since last year's meeting between the two leaders in Indonesia. As the election season begins in the United States, China is one of the most talked about topics in the domestic political discourse. According to a recent poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, nearly 60 per cent of Americans see China's rapid development as a threat to the US.

Xi apparently hoped to use the visit as an opportunity to send a message to US business leaders.

Today, however, US-China relations have moved away from the phase when bilateral trade and investment was considered a "stabiliser". The structural problem in bilateral relations, the problem of optimising trade and economic ties between the countries remains unchanged and unresolved though.