CHOICE OF PAKISTAN

The next parliamentary elections in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan are slated for February 8, 2024. The decision follows a meeting between members of the Election Commission of Pakistan and President Arif Alvi. The previous decision established the date of elections to be February 11, 2024 though.

As Pakistan has a parliamentary system of government, the elections are expected to be a major event in the political life of the country. As a rule, the candidates for both the government and the post of the prime minister are nominated by the party that has secured a parliamentary majority. Interestingly, no prime minister has ever been able to complete the five-year statutory term of office since the inception of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan 76 years ago. The reason was either a military coup or a political crisis leading to prime minister's resignation from office.

For nearly thirty years, the country has been ruled by the military. Nevertheless, Pakistan is considered to have the most reliable electoral and independent judiciary system in the Muslim world. This has been reaffirmed during the court trials of the past two years involving the country's former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

150 lawsuits against Khan

According to the decree of a Pakistani court, it is illegal to hold the court trials of the arrested Imran Khan and the former foreign minister Mahmood Qureishi in jail.  Instead the trial of the former prime minister must be held in public. In total, there are about 150 charges against him.

Because of the criminal cases against the former prime minister, Pakistani law does not allow him to participate in the February elections. Therefore, a new person was temporarily elected as the head of his party—a lawyer Gohar Ali Khan, whose candidature was recommended by Imran Khan himself. As a result, Gohar Ali Khan was elected to chair the Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI, or Movement for Justice) Party unopposed. At the same time, he said he would step down from his post immediately after the former minister's conviction was cancelled. Thus, the PTI founded by Imran Khan in 1996 will be represented by a different person for the first time in the 8 February elections.

Previously led by former Pakistan cricket champion Imran Khan, PTI won the 2018 parliamentary elections with 149 seats, or 31.82 per cent of the popular vote. Under Pakistani law, this allowed Khan to form a government and lead it for five years. However, like his predecessors, Khan was unable to hold on as prime minister until the end of his five-year term and resigned after four years.

In 2022, the opposition coalition against him demanded a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. On April 10, 2022, Khan lost his post in a parliamentary vote, as 174 MPs voted against him. Later, the court cancelled Khan's decision to dissolve the parliament. After that, Khan's post was taken by the chairman of Pakistan Muslim League (PML), Shahbaz Sharif, brother of former ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. However, parliament was dissolved again in August 2023, with Anwarul Haq Kaka elected as the acting prime minister until the next elections.

On August 5, 2023, Imran Khan was charged with corruption and arrested on August 19. The court sentenced him to three years in prison. On August 30, Khan was charged with disclosure of state secrets, and the decision to suspend his sentence was reversed.

A victim of geopolitical competition?

Imran Khan is now accused by Pakistan's Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) of violating the 1923 Official Secrets Act by "using the diplomatic code of the Foreign Ministry for political purposes". Thus, the US-based news website The Intercept published a transcript of a meeting between Pakistan's former ambassador to Washington, Asad Majid Khan, and a State Department official on March 7, 2022. In the document, Washington expressed dissatisfaction with Imran Khan's neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Intercept also claims that Donald Lu, US Undersecretary of State for South and Central Asia, who participated in the meeting, said that relations between the two countries could improve after Imran Khan's impeachment.

Shortly before that, on February 22, just a day before the Russian-Ukrainian war, Imran Khan visited Moscow, where he met the Russian President and discussed with him the grain supplies for Pakistan. The outcome of the Russian-Pakistani summit was a mutual friendly message from the two heads of state.

Washington, as well as political forces and Pakistan's army command, denied the allegations. At the same time, the FIA also filed a criminal case against Imran Khan for disclosing classified documents.

Meanwhile, according to some experts, the pressure on Khan is related to his rivalry with the army. The cooling of relations between Khan and the US, as well as his rapprochement with China and Russia, have displeased a number of political forces in Pakistan, including the army commanders. It is well known that the Pakistani Army is the defender of political course in the country, and many Pakistani military commanders are known for their close ties with the US. In this context, the events around Imran Khan are regarded as one of the consequences of global political competition. After all, before that, the former prime minister had steadfastly repelled serious attacks on himself and his circle. He also had strong support in the judicial system and the state bureaucracy of the country.

Thus, the upcoming February elections could be a significant event in the country's history. It is not only about the political fate of Imran Khan, but also about the future of Pakistan's political course.

Expectations from elections

By law, parliamentary elections in the country should be held within 90 days after the dissolution of parliament. However, following the census, this deadline had to be extended and the elections postponed to February.

Despite the multiplicity of parties in Pakistan, three of them are the main contenders for victory in the February 8 elections. Barring political surprises, these will be Imran Khan's Movement for Justice, the Pakistan Muslim League led by Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by former Foreign Minister and son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.

Another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, cannot lead his party because of court charges as well. He is accused of corruption. However, his acquittal obviously increases the possibility of his participation in the elections.

In the 2018 parliamentary elections, the distribution of the votes was as follows: Imran Khan's party — 31.82 per cent (149 seats), PML — 24.35 per cent (82 seats) and PPP — 13.03 per cent (54 seats), respectively. The rest of the votes given to nearly ten other parties are small and not decisive.

Pakistan's parliament consists of 336 members. 266 of them are elected in single-member constituencies, 60 seats are reserved for women and distributed proportionally among the winning parties, with the remaining ten reserved for national minorities.

As of July 25, 2023, thanks to a rapidly growing population, Pakistan has 127 million voters, about half of whom (58.5 million) are women.

In lieu of afterword

The elections in Pakistan will not only mean the victory of a particular party and the establishment of a new government. It will also be a milestone amid the Sino-American rivalry of the past few years. Despite the pressure from the army, Imran Khan's success can bring new changes in Pakistan.

Of course, the tolerance of his opponents towards Khan will also be a significant factor. Also, the removal of Khan from power under political pressure, as well as attempts to physically remove and arrest him at a rally had a counter effect, leading to the growth of his popular rating in the country.

Recall that after Benazir Bhutto's assassination in 2007, her party made significant electoral gains and her husband Asif Ali Zardari was elected president of Pakistan. In that sense, Imran Khan's chances in the elections have indeed increased. However, Khan still has very strong opponents in the state apparatus and the army, which does not diminish certain risks for him.