WAITING FOR COP29

The international community is intensively looking for ways out of the climate crisis. The UN conference known as COP28 brought together more than 100,000 representatives of governments, corporations and all walks of life from nearly 200 countries in the UAE, making it the largest event in UN history. The participants mainly summarised the first results of the 2015 Paris Accord, monetary compensation for poor countries and the ways to counter the main culprit of weather shocks of recent years - the production and burning of fossil fuels for energy. There are two options: either to phase out the oil and gas dependency of humanity or to take a softer approach by introducing carbon-free technologies to eliminate emissions.

Climate heating up

In 2015, at the COP21 Conference in Paris, all countries agreed to limit the increase in global temperature relative to pre-industrial levels to 2°C, and ideally not even 1.5°C. Nearly a decade later, it is clear that it is increasingly difficult to achieve the goals of the Paris Accord. Despite the rapid introduction of technologies to generate wind and solar power, the global oil and gas consumption continues to grow.

The Earth is already about 1.1-1.2°C warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution, with the global temperature increase by the end of the century by 2.4°C. The Global Carbon Project, an international group of scientists, warns that if nothing is changed, the 1.5°C ceiling set in the Paris Accord will inevitably be exceeded in about seven years. Therefore, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 from 2019 levels and achieve net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, more resolute action is needed. All countries should prepare adjusted national abatement plans.

The UN Climate Change Programme also underlines the urgency of climate action. Experts estimate that 3.3 billion people worldwide are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. WHO estimates that one in four of the world's deaths is due to preventable environmental causes, with one person dying every four seconds. And that's more than during the coronavirus pandemic. Air, water and soil pollution, chemical exposure, climate change and ultraviolet radiation are killing people all over the planet. The climate is really getting hot. 2023 is recognised as the hottest year in the history of observations, while the last nine years rank in the top ten of the overall rating of the hottest years. According to experts, this phenomenon will continue next year, which means that 2024 may also become abnormally hot.

Climate sceptics

There is another point of view, which claims a discrepancy in terms global warming and climate change. The supporters of this view argue that climate change is not caused by global warming, but is only a component of climate change. It occurs as a result of natural cyclic processes. There are quite a few of such climate sceptics, as they're commonly called. One of them is the famous Swiss expert Werner Munter specialising in the study of snow and avalanches. He claims the total amount of anthropogenic (caused by human activities) CO₂ in the atmosphere to be only 5 per cent. Volcanoes, for example, release much more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Especially the ones similar to the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland. This view is supported by purely empirical data showing that the weather conditions are getting more extreme, including droughts, floods, extreme heat and supercold. For example, in early December, residents of Western Europe and Britain have experienced the most powerful snowfall (-12°C), with more than 40 cm of precipitation. This led to kilometre-long traffic jams, flight delays and power cuts.

Who can say no?

Most experts still insist that it is CO₂ and the fossil fuels used by mankind that play the main negative role. On November 30, at the opening day of COP28, UN Secretary General António Guterres called for immediate suspension of fossil fuel production. Washington's climate envoy John Kerry has made the same point - the US supports phasing out fossil fuels. David Waskow, Director of the World Resources Institute's International Climate Initiative, stated that "without a clear mandate to move away from global dependence on oil, gas and coal, the COP28 will not have a final outcome."

The question remains, however, whether all countries should try to do this equally, or whether some of them should try harder than others. And who is going to regulate the process and how? China, one of the planet's main carbon dioxide suppliers, believes that Western countries are primarily responsible for climate change. For years, they have been focused on industrial development, greedily consuming energy without actually caring about the environment. And now they are preoccupied with the green agenda?! But in doing so, they "neglect moral duties and legal obligation to compensate affected developing countries and force them to adopt irrational plans to reduce emissions." At the last COP27 in Egypt, there seemed to be agreement to set up a compensation fund, but the details have yet to be finalised.

Meanwhile, the US has been one of the largest sources of CO₂ emissions for decades. Remarkably, the US oil and gas industry is doing quite well amidst the development of green technologies. Moreover, the British authorities are developing new oil and gas fields in the North Sea amid the energy crisis in Europe. As the head of the British government Rishi Sunak noted, even when the UK reaches carbon neutrality by 2050, a quarter of its energy needs will be met by oil and gas. Germany and Austria, on the other hand, will bring back coal-fired CHP plants. And the list goes on.

Technology to save us?

At COP28, there was a strong coalition of conventional fuel supporters - 2,456 delegates, almost four times as many as attended COP27. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and chair of the conference, put it this way: "There is no scientific data or scenarios that say that phasing out fossil fuels will help achieve the 1.5 degree target. Show me a plan to phase out fossil fuels that will achieve sustainable socio-economic development, unless you want to take the world back to the caves." That said, he did call a reduction in the use of fossil fuels inevitable.

In turn, the heads of large energy companies are trying to prove the environmental efficiency of implemented measures to reduce emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases. It is clear that this also requires substantial investments - serious modernisation and these solutions require a lot of money.  But there seem to be no other options, and so mankind is likely to go this way. Of course, if it manages not only to agree, but also to stick to decisions. 

Politics and conspiracy against climate

Obviously, the development of consensus on climate is hindered by politics, and above all by the war in Ukraine and the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. These factors have divided the suffering world and seriously distracts people from the green agenda. The people is more concerned about falling living standards, inflation and migration problems. The so-called means of combating climate warming also sometimes frightens ordinary people. It is true that the goal looks righteous to save billions of people from the devastating consequences of droughts, floods, snowfalls and other disasters. Yet, there are reports claiming that to achieve carbon neutrality, we should stop not only the burning of any organic fuel (CO₂), but also any activities that involve the emission of methane (CH₄) as a side effect, meaning agriculture companies. This means that people will need to use transport less often, turn on heating and air conditioning less often, eat less red meat, and even eat less. This eventually gives rise to various conspiracy theories.

Azerbaijan to host COP29

The international climate agenda is becoming more intense, more relevant and more complex every month and even every year. In this context, Baku's selection as the next host of the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Climate Change Convention is remarkable. After all, the chairmanship of the UN climate summit has a huge impact on its agenda and results.

Undoubtedly, the fact that Azerbaijan will host such a large-scale and important summit for the entire planet is an indicator of the republic's socio-economic development and socio-political stability. Baku has a solid experience in organising high-level international events and has the necessary infrastructure for this purpose. Suffice it to mention that over the past four years Azerbaijan has successfully chaired the Non-Aligned Movement, which is the largest international organisation after the UN, and has held numerous international conferences and summits. Baku will definitely capitalise on all the benefits of COP29. It is not just about global attention to the country, the benefits for tourism and the mobilisation of efforts to combat climate change and its consequences. For Azerbaijan, these goals are very important, especially with regard to water management. Most significantly, the President of Azerbaijan has declared the liberated lands as a green energy zone, with plans to turn these territories into a net zero emissions zone by 2050. This is an important indicator of Azerbaijan's true intentions - to turn a previously occupied and neglected territory into a prosperous and environmentally friendly one for the benefit of the entire region.

In general, Baku sets itself ambitious and quite feasible tasks, as Azerbaijan has all the conditions for the development of green energy. Solar and wind power plants have already been constructed, with further construction projects as well as the creation of facilities for the production and export of green energy, hydrogen and green ammonia underway. According to the Azerbaijani Minister of Environment and Natural Resources, Mukhtar Babayev, at the plenary session of the final session of COP28, "Azerbaijan realises the importance of a coordinated global response to climate change. Current challenges require collective action and commitment to common agreed goals and aspirations. Azerbaijan recognises the importance of joint efforts to combat climate change. The strong political will demonstrated by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and the support of Azerbaijan's nomination by other Eastern European Group Member States to host COP29 have played a crucial role in today's success," minister said.

And it will indeed be very symbolic and indicative for Azerbaijan, a country with rich oil production history, to become an example of successful development of green technologies in the country.