STORM IN THE RED SEA

The West and Iran are on the brink of a new phase of confrontation. The proxy war that has been simmering for years could erupt into a full-scale war, escalating tensions across the Middle East.

Ansarullah attacks

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has sparked a wave of violence. Pro-Iranian groups have stepped up their activities in Syria and Iraq, and the Yemeni movement Ansarullah (Partisans of Allah), or Houthis (named after their founder, H. Badruddin al-Houthi), which has Tehran's backing, has launched attacks on US bases and ships to "punish Israel and its allies". The Houthis want to block US- and Israeli-affiliated merchant ships from crossing the Arabian and Red Seas until Israel stops its military operation in Gaza.

In recent weeks, dozens of international merchant ships sailing through the Red Sea have come under attack, threatening the security of this vital route. Oil tankers delivering crude to Europe and Africa have also faced difficulties.

On 18 December 2023, the US announced the start of Operation Prosperity Guardian, under the banner of the Combined Maritime Forces. This coalition of 39 countries (based in Bahrain, where the US Navy's Fifth Fleet is located), was formed to fight piracy and terrorism in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. However, the US and Britain have taken the lead in striking Yemen, targeting Houthi sites that "pose a direct threat to merchant ships."

The US-British strikes on the Houthis have continued throughout January, with varying intensity. Washington claims that the US does not seek to escalate the Middle East conflict, and its aim is to weaken the Houthis' ability to launch new attacks in the Red Sea and to stop the shelling of international merchant ships from Yemeni territory.

The Houthis retaliated by announcing their own military operation in the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. They reported clashes with several US ships, including the US Navy-owned cargo ship Ocean Jazz.

Iran strongly condemns the West's anti-Houthi actions. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, speaking at an open debate in the UN Security Council on the Middle East, said that the US and Britain, by deciding to strike the Houthi facilities in Yemen, made a strategic blunder that increased the risk of spreading the conflict in the region.

Meanwhile, Iran itself has moved from indirect to direct confrontation with the West, indicating a rise in military escalation. It has taken a serious step in this direction.

Erbil and Mezzeh

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran has fired ballistic missiles at US and Israeli positions in Iraq. Some reports say that the targets were near the US consulate in Erbil (the capital of the Kurdish region in Iraq); others say that the consulate itself was hit. The IRGC said that the target was the "spy headquarters" of Israel's Mossad intelligence service in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The attacks on American and Israeli targets are also linked to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. Iran is trying to pressure both Israel, which is carrying on with its military operations in Gaza, and the US, which has failed or refused to persuade Tel Aviv to stop the operation.

Israel did not wait long to respond. It struck the Mezzeh neighbourhood in the south-western part of Damascus. Israel has been bombing Syrian territory for years, aiming at sites where Iranian or pro-Iranian forces are based. The attacks have intensified since Hamas launched rockets at Israel last October.

Iran has responded by striking American and Israeli targets directly, claiming to avenge the recent terrorist attack on a cemetery in Kerman, where a ceremony was held to honour General Qasem Suleimani. Iran blames the US and Israel for all anti-Iranian actions, and accuses them of supporting the terrorists behind the Kerman attack. Iran also fired missiles at the Islamic State positions in northern Syria, and then at the Jaysh al-Adl (Army of Justice) group in Pakistan. The latter provoked a clash with Pakistan that could add another twist to the Middle East drama.

Tehran and Islamabad vs. Jaysh al-Adl

Pakistan denounced Iran's violation of its airspace and warned of serious repercussions. Islamabad was furious that "this unlawful act occurred despite the availability of several channels of communication between Pakistan and Iran," and put its army on "extremely high" alert.

Pakistan retaliated by attacking the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan. Innocent civilians, including children, were caught in the crossfire of the counter-terrorism operations on both sides.

The terrorists targeted by Pakistan and Iran are fighting for the independence of the Baluch people. Both Tehran and Islamabad want to crush groups like Jaysh al-Adl. This shared interest seems to have prevented the situation from getting worse.

It is noteworthy that Iran's attacks on Jaysh al-Adl coincided with the meeting between Pakistan's Acting Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar and Iran's Foreign Minister Abdollahian at the World Economic Forum in Davos. They agreed to boost their bilateral ties. Amid the escalation, however, the foreign ministers of both countries - Abdollahian and Jalil Abbas Jilani - decided to calm things down by respecting each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty. After meeting with Abdollahian in Islamabad, Pakistani minister Jilani said Pakistan and Iran would work together to combat terrorism and stressed the need to "clear and address each other's concerns". He said the terrorist threat was a common challenge for both countries and said Islamabad and Tehran had agreed to "follow a joint strategy to counter this threat". He added that respecting each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity was a key step for co-operation.

While Pakistan's nuclear capabilities raise questions about how far it will go in responding to Iran's boldness, the US reaction to Iran's challenge remains unclear.

Washington should respond

The US only issued a statement from the State Department condemning "Iran's reckless missile attacks that undermine Iraqi stability". The focus on "Iraqi stability" may suggest that the US was not too concerned, since no Americans were hurt. But it would be a mistake to judge the US reaction, and its overall policy towards Iran, in the short term.

The US policy towards Iran could get tougher if a Republican wins the presidential election this year. Especially if former President Donald Trump, who scrapped the nuclear deal with Tehran during his term, makes a comeback to the White House. That move stalled the efforts to resolve the issue of Iran's nuclear programme.

A December report by the IAEA said that Iran had boosted its uranium enrichment by 60 per cent, going from 3 to 9 kg per month. Iran started speeding up this process after the US pulled out of the nuclear deal. The agency said that Iran had been doing this at its nuclear sites in Natanz and Fordow since late November last year. The IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi pointed out that Iran was the only country in the world that "does not have nuclear weapons, but enriches uranium at such a high level, very close to weapons grade". Grossi said that Iran's nuclear programme was "making leaps and bounds", aiming for "ambitious goals". The Agency had no problem with that, as long as Iran did not limit the inspectors' access to its nuclear facilities.

Iran's persistence in these practices gives more ammunition to the US and Israel, who argue that the Islamic Republic of Iran wants to have nuclear weapons. They are determined to stop Iran's fast track to nuclear power. But that is not the only reason, considering the West's opposition to Iran's growing influence on the events in the Middle East and its alliance with RUSa and China, the main rivals of the US In this context, it is not surprising that prominent Western politicians and think tanks, especially from the US and the UK, have often warned about the looming war with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The escalating military tension between Iran and the West, led by the US, dims the outlook for the Middle East, which is already plunging deeper into a "war of everyone against everyone". This also poses a threat to the security of the neighbouring regions, including the South Caucasus.