ANTICIPATIONS FROM WASHINGTON

The war in Ukraine has entered its second year, prompting a reassessment of the strategic position of its two largest neighbours, Poland and Romania. These countries have become NATO's front lines in eastern Europe in recent years.

They supply Ukraine with all the necessary military equipment to sustain the combat capability of the Ukrainian army. They also facilitate a significant part of Ukraine's export-import operations through their territories.

But while assisting it, Warsaw and Bucharest do not neglect their own interests, aware that their military-strategic position could become critical at any moment. As NATO border countries, Poland and Romania are directly or indirectly in contact with Russia or its ally Belarus, and they both share a border with the warring Ukraine. This requires them to be constantly vigilant.

Poland as NATO's forward flank in the Eastern Baltic Sea

In late January, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands signed a declaration of intent to establish a military corridor dubbed "military Schengen". It aims to cut red tape that hinders the rapid cross-border movement of troops and weapons along one of the main corridors from the North Sea to NATO's eastern flank. The concept of "military corridors", or "military Schengen", seeks to eliminate confusion with rules that limit the exchange and movement of military equipment not only between European countries, but even within those countries. This gives the Polish army an extra edge in case of a war.

Currently, the Polish armed forces have over 200,000 personnel. This is 105,000 more than a decade ago. They plan to increase this number by another 100,000 by 2026, which will make Poland the largest NATO land army in Europe.

They also intend to build an arsenal of 1,600 battle tanks. This is more than the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy combined. Defence spending is expected to rise to 3% of GDP this year, and could surpass 4% by some estimates, the highest in NATO.

The United States is Poland's main partner in achieving these goals. In September 2023, the United States offered a $2 billion (PLN 8.7 billion) loan to Warsaw to modernise the army by buying American equipment and services. Naturally, this also benefits its own military equipment production facilities with state defence orders.

Poland's rearmament programme started in earnest at the end of 2018. It has two main objectives. The first is to bind the US to itself as the main guarantor of its security by doubling its defence spending and ordering a large amount of advanced American equipment. This includes 366 M1 Abrams tanks, 486 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, and at least 32 F-35 combat aircraft.

The second and more important aspect is the creation of the largest NATO ground force in Europe.

It is noteworthy that while Germany, France and some other European countries support a unified European army, Poland is sceptical about this idea. It views it as an attempt by the Eurograndees to create a pan-European military force that serves their own interests.

It is important for Poland to become NATO's forward flank in the Eastern Baltic, which will enhance its position as a medium-sized regional European power.

Romania as NATO's frontier in the Balkans and the Black Sea

Romania has similar goals, but in its own region - in the eastern Balkans and the western coast of the Black Sea. It has received a considerable number of advanced weapons as it has become more important to NATO due to its border location with Ukraine. These include the Gepard self-propelled air defence system from Germany and the I-Hawk PIP surface-to-air missile system from the Netherlands.

Romania also acquired two British Type 22 frigates, which underwent modernisation before delivery and joined the service in 2004/2005.

Moreover, Romania strives to use its defence industry to upgrade outdated equipment, much of which was produced locally. This is a cost-effective solution because it supports the domestic industry. The Romanian defence industry has a considerable capacity to manufacture and upgrade air, land and sea systems, as well as the potential for further development to meet the increasing demands of national defence.

At the same time, Romania regards the US as its main political-military and military-technical partner. In 2017, the US and Romania signed a $1.25b military contract, which comprised 54 M142 HIMARS launchers, GMLRS and ATACMS missiles, and support equipment. The first deliveries took place in 2021. Another major contract with the US for $3.9b included seven PATRIOT Configuration 3+ launchers and missiles. More recently, the US agreed to supply Bucharest with two coastal defence systems using the Kongsberg naval strike missile for $300 million.

Aircraft First

Additionally, a contract was signed that stipulated the modernisation of F-16s and logistical support for the existing fleet.

These are only some of the major programmes implemented by Romania after the events of 2014 around Ukraine. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, actions in this direction intensified.

As is known, the Romanian ground forces are currently armed with domestic TR-85 tanks and old Soviet T-55 tanks, which clearly do not meet the needs of the Romanian Armed Forces. The acquisition of the M1 Abrams tank battalion (54 tanks) could be a possible solution to this problem.

The deployment of the US Aegis Ashore complex in Deveselu, equipped with Patriot batteries and connected to the NATO missile defence system in early 2016, plays a special role in enhancing Romania's missile defence system.

In 2023, Bucharest reinforced its air defence system with two additional batteries of American Patriot missiles, bringing their number to 4. The country plans to install a total of seven Patriot batteries under the programme.

Also in 2023, the process for the most expensive procurement in the history of the armed forces began, involving the purchase of F-16 fighter jets. It will be carried out in two phases. In the first, 32 fighter jets will be received, and then, after a separate contract is awarded, another 17 fighter jets.

Bucharest intends to spend $6.5b on aircraft, engines, logistics, pilot and personnel training services and flight simulators. These include special air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions.

In April 2023, the country's Supreme Defence Council decided that Romania would purchase a multi-role stealth combat aircraft from the United States as part of an intergovernmental deal. The implementation of the entire programme will take until 2030. The Romanian Air Force then plans to switch to F-35 fighter jets in stages. The first batch of F-16s will be bought from Norway, the second - from Portugal. The Norwegian F-16s have a life expectancy limited to a maximum of 10 years, while the Portuguese aircraft are in the middle stage of service. Previously, the country's air force consisted mainly of old Soviet MiG-21 LanceRs.

Warsaw and Bucharest are betting on Washington

As for the land forces, the Poles and Romanians equip them with similar equipment. They are discussing the joint use of M142 HIMARS units under the cooperation programmes of the two countries' armed forces. The situation is similar with Patriot systems. At the end of June 2023, the US State Department approved the sale of a $15 billion integrated air defence combat control system to Poland. The M1 Abrams tanks, which will enter service this year, are also part of this deal.

The two sides have repeatedly engaged in bilateral and multilateral exercises to enhance proficiency with modern American weaponry and to synchronize military unit actions.

It's worth mentioning that Poland and Romania are part of the Bucharest Nine (B9) alliance, established in 2014 with Eastern European countries. Meetings under this framework occur at various levels, including presidents, foreign ministers, and defence ministers. B9's activities are centred on NATO's eastern flank threats, strategies to address them, and opportunities for regional cooperation among member countries.

Poland actively supports NATO units stationed in Romania, tasked with bolstering security along NATO's eastern and southern flanks and across the entire North Atlantic Alliance. Consequently, both Poland and Romania are stepping up as pivotal players in NATO's security architecture, elevating their roles and significance in European politics, evolving into medium-sized regional powers with increasing geopolitical influence.

Both Warsaw and Bucharest view the United States as their primary partner and ally in defence matters. However, recent concerns have emerged regarding a potential shift in the US stance on its European defence strategy.

On February 11, former US President and likely Republican Party candidate in the upcoming election, Donald Trump, indicated his approval of potential Russian assaults on NATO members failing to allocate 2 percent of GDP to defence.

In response, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, emphasised the need for the EU, France, and Poland to fortify themselves as robust nations prepared to safeguard their borders, territories, support allies, and defend friends beyond the EU. Tusk characterized Trump's remarks as a sobering wake-up call.

Tusk expressed support for advancing a pan-European military agenda, a sentiment echoed by France and Germany advocating for European armed forces creation. While this doesn't imply a shift in Poland's military collaboration with the US, it does suggest that Warsaw is open to potentially revising its military-strategic priorities in the near future.