FRAGILE GLOBAL ORDER

The Munich Security Conference, a prestigious annual international forum, recently held its 60th anniversary conference from February 16th to 18th. The event drew the participation of over forty heads of state and government, along with more than a hundred ministers and experts. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attended the conference, engaging in a series of meetings that highlighted Baku's growing influence on the global stage.

Azerbaijan's New Horizons

The conference paid close attention to Azerbaijan, particularly due to its role as the host of the upcoming COP29, a session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, scheduled for November 2024. At his meeting with Christoph Heusgen, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, President Aliyev agreed to collaborate between Azerbaijan's Organising Committee for COP29 and the Secretariat of the Munich Security Conference. The Azerbaijani leader also welcomed the proposal to hold a joint event within the framework of COP29.

The topic of COP29 was a focal point during President Ilham Aliyev's meetings with key American figures, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Presidential Special Envoy on Climate Issues John Kerry, and Presidential Special Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security Amos Hochstein. The discussions emphasized that Azerbaijan's leadership of COP29 presents promising opportunities to expand cooperation between Baku and Washington. It was also noted that the decisions made at COP29 would significantly contribute to international efforts in combating climate change and mitigating its consequences.

Azerbaijan's stance on increasing the role of developing countries in global politics was evident in President Aliyev's meeting with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh. He emphasized Azerbaijan's commitment to strengthening solidarity between developing and developed nations during COP29.

As part of its dedication to combating climate change, Azerbaijan supports the transition to green energy and is implementing renewable energy projects. One such project involves laying an electric cable under the Black Sea, positioning Azerbaijan to become a green energy exporter, capitalizing on its renewable energy potential in the Caspian Sea, which exceeds 157 gigawatts.

Climate finance and the upcoming COP29 in Baku were discussed in President Aliyev's meetings with World Bank General Managing Director Axel Trotsenburg and Eileen O'Connor, the General Vice President of the Rockefeller Foundation for Strategic Communications, Policy and Advocacy. Additionally, discussions with Maroš Šefčovič, Executive Vice-President of the European Commission for the European Green Deal Initiative, Inter-institutional Affairs and Forecasting, focused on the prospective project of exporting green energy to Europe.

COP29 was also discussed in the context of its potential positive impact on the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia during President Aliyev's meetings with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The Munich Security Conference facilitated a meeting between President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, at the initiative of Chancellor Scholz. This meeting resulted in agreements to hold talks between the Foreign Ministers of both countries and a meeting of the commissions on border delimitation in the near future.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev attended the Munich Security Conference, advocating for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan through bilateral negotiations. During his meetings with OSCE Chairman-in-Office Jan Borg and OSCE Secretary General Helga-Maria Schmid, Aliyev stressed the importance of removing the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement from the international agenda. Notably, Aliyev requested that the US develop bilateral relations without linking them to the settlement, thus distancing Azerbaijani-American relations from the negative influence of the Armenian lobby and pro-Armenian US politicians.

In President Ilham Aliyev's inaugural speech, he emphasized that the process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan should be kept off the international agenda. During his meeting with the US Secretary of State, Aliyev called on the US to develop bilateral relations with Azerbaijan without linking them to the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. Baku considers it important for Washington to protect the bilateral relationship from negative influences, such as the Armenian lobby and pro-Armenian US politicians who damage relations for personal interests.

President Aliyev's meetings with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan were particularly significant. These meetings, requested by his interlocutors, indicate the growing role of Azerbaijan in world and regional affairs.

Azerbaijan has firmly established itself as a responsible and influential state, making it an appealing partner for other countries and major centers of power. As the leader in the strategically significant South Caucasus region and a key player at the Eurasian crossroads, Azerbaijan has proven itself to be a strong and self-sufficient nation that contributes significantly to peace, security, and cooperation in the international arena. This reflects President Ilham Aliyev's vision, as expressed in his inaugural speech, and is further demonstrated by his active participation in the Munich Security Conference.

War and Peace

The Munich Security Conference highlighted the complex contradictions in the current system of international relations, particularly the confrontation between the West and Russia. This tension was reflected in Russia's absence from the conference and the prevailing mood of pessimism in the West.

The topic of confrontation with Russia became a central theme at the current forum, beginning with news of the death of imprisoned Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny and culminating in discussions on the most pressing issue: the war in Ukraine. The prevailing mood in the West, particularly Europe, was far from optimistic, as evident in the program report's title, "Lose-Lose?" This question was accompanied by assessments of "negative trends in world politics," "growing geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty," and "the continuing fragmentation of the world order" within the program itself.

The spirit of "uncertainty" and "fragmentation" permeated discussions surrounding the Ukrainian crisis, overshadowing all other topical issues on the global agenda, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As the second anniversary of Russia's "special operation" approached, the matter of Western arms supplies to Ukraine gained prominence. European nations acknowledged their inability to produce the necessary amount of ammunition for the Ukrainian army, while in the US, a bill providing Kiev with another multi-billion-dollar military aid package was blocked by Congress. Sceptical expectations were further fuelled by speculation of a possible return to the White House by former US President Donald Trump, who not only argued against US spending on Ukraine but also expressed readiness to undermine NATO unity due to some European countries not allocating 2% of their GDP to defence.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky urged the US and EU to expedite arms deliveries, citing shortages as the reason for recent setbacks on the battlefield.

Western leaders have pledged to continue providing assistance to Ukraine. US Vice-President Kamala Harris and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made such assurances. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that ongoing military support to Ukraine was the only way to achieve "a lasting and fair peace". However, the Western leaders did not clarify the exact scope of this military support. Scholz, for instance, dodged a direct question about Germany's willingness to transfer Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy signed agreements with Germany and France on security guarantees and long-term support for Ukraine during the Munich conference. Ukraine and the UK had signed a similar document earlier. However, these agreements do not spell out what these guarantees entail, and whether the guarantors are prepared to enter the battlefield for Ukraine's sake in case of emergency.

Despite the persistent ambiguity over the level of U.S. and European aid to Ukraine, the collapse of the dialogue between the West and Russia at the Munich Conference was obvious. The remark by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who foresaw Europe's existence in the coming decades along dividing lines, with itself, "free and democratic" on one side and "authoritarian" Russia on the other, was revealing. But more importantly, the West is gearing up for a long war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Munich Conference, as one of the political platforms of the West, still did not address the question: is a military solution to the Ukrainian crisis feasible?

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who spoke at the conference, unveiled Beijing's proposal to resolve the crisis. He stressed that even in the most complex situations, "it is necessary to give peace a chance". However, can China's peace plan prevent the Russian-Ukrainian war from dragging on? Especially considering that China itself is a symbol of the emerging global divide, which runs, among other things, along the line between it and the West. It is not surprising that American Vice President Kamala Harris voiced the United States' concern about the improvement of relations between China and Russia after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

Many experts regard Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 as the starting point of the current world rift. At that time, Putin announced the end of the unipolar world led by the United States. The 60th Munich Conference took place in a context where the unipolar world seems to have lost its relevance, but the multipolar world has not yet emerged. In such uncertainty, the US and the rest of the West on the one hand and other potential poles, mainly Russia and China, on the other, are engaged in one or another form of global confrontation. The West's conflict with Russia unfolds mainly in the military-political sphere, and with China - in the economic one. The fate of the future world order hinges on the outcome of the confrontation. What will it be? No one provides a clear answer to this question, including such a prestigious platform as the Munich Security Conference.