A CHANGING TIDE? ELECTIONS IN IRAN AND THE PUSH FOR REFORM

The twelfth parliamentary (Majlis) and sixth Assembly of Experts (Khubregan) elections of the Islamic Republic of Iran are scheduled for March 1, 2024. Both events are of significant public and political interest as the main outcome of the popular vote will be the election of the country's top leader.

The Iranian Parliament comprises 290 deputies elected by majority vote for a four-year term. Similarly, the Assembly of Experts consists of 88 clerics elected for an eight-year term.

Great Interest

Numerous factors contribute to the heightened attention surrounding the elections in Iran. The 2020 parliamentary elections saw conservatives secure a substantial advantage with 223 out of 290 seats, granting them full control of the legislative body. Mohammad Baqir Ghalibaf, a former general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ex-mayor of Tehran, assumed the role of parliament speaker. Only 20 seats were secured by reformists, while independent candidates claimed the remaining seats.

Despite the conservative victory in the 2021 presidential election with Ebrahim Raisi's win, the anticipated changes did not materialize. Instead, the country faced significant unrest, highlighted by protests following Mahsa Amini's death in 2022. Scandals within the conservative government and unmet promises of economic and social progress added to the challenges. The reformist minority in parliament struggled to address these issues, leading to escalating internal conflicts.

Recent years have witnessed increased terrorist activities and separatist movements in provinces like Sistan-Baluchestan, Ahvaz, and Kurdish regions, underscoring the need for broader public involvement in problem-solving.

Recognising the importance of inclusive electoral participation, authorities aim to ensure diverse representation of conservatives and reformers in parliament amid growing calls for election boycotts.

In late February, Iranian Interior Minister Ahmed Vahidi disclosed that 15,200 candidates were registered by the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, with some initially rejected but later approved for candidacy.

These elections present an opportunity for reformers to reclaim their positions cautiously. Furthermore, attention is drawn to the age and health of Iran's current supreme leader, raising speculation about potential successors and the Assembly's role in leadership transitions.

Notably, declining voter turnout in recent elections below 50 percent raises concerns about future election legitimacy.

Within the reformist wing, two predominant approaches towards the elections exist. Supporters of the "boycotters," led by former IRI President Mohammad Khatami, advocate for boycotting elections citing ongoing limitations in electoral freedom and competitiveness.

In contrast, 110 reformist activists issued a statement urging the public to actively participate in the elections to bring about a change in the current conservative government. Among them is former Prime Minister and political prisoner Mir-Hussein Mousavi.

Powers of the Iranian Parliament

The Iranian parliament, elected every four years through popular vote, consists of 290 members representing majoritarian constituencies. This supreme legislative body holds authority over the republic's laws and government activities. Notably, certain government decisions such as ministerial appointments and interstate agreements require approval from the IRI Parliament. Upon a presidential decree for a minister's appointment, parliamentary approval is necessary before the minister can commence duties.

In Iran, the highest-ranking official is the supreme religious leader, while the President serves as both the head of the supreme executive power and the government following the abolition of the Prime Minister's role in 1989.

The Iranian parliament retains the power to initiate impeachment proceedings against the President, who lacks authority to dissolve it. Interestingly, in Iran, while the president and parliament are elected by the people, the head of the judiciary is appointed by the supreme leader.

A pivotal governmental entity in Iran is the Council of Guardians of the Constitution (Negahban), comprising twelve members equally divided between clerics and jurists appointed by the supreme leader and Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. This council assesses government laws and decisions for compliance with the Islamic system, also approving presidential candidates, parliamentary members, and Assembly of Experts representatives.

Another significant governmental body is the Political Expediency Council, primarily composed of former government officials, bureaucrats, diplomats, and military officers. Though lacking specific powers, this council contributes to outlining the state's political direction and serves as a mediator during inter-power structure disputes.

Government's Electoral Policy

Efforts are underway by IRI authorities to boost voter turnout in elections. Notable religious figures like IRGC commander Huseyin Salami, various political and religious figures, as well as Friday imams, advocate for active participation. Concerns have surfaced regarding a potential decline in voter turnout this year, with projections as low as 30 percent, posing a direct challenge to authority legitimacy.

However, the Council of Guardians of the Constitution prohibits opposition candidates from contesting in elections. Reports suggest rejections of candidacies from former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Justice Minister Mustafa Pourmohammadi, Information Minister Heydar Moslehi, and Intelligence Chief Mehdi Tayyib for Assembly of Experts membership. Hassan Rouhani's repeated rejection stems from his perceived status as a leading contender among religious reformers for the supreme leader position.

Conclusion

The twelfth parliamentary elections and the sixth Assembly of Experts elections in the IRI will serve as a litmus test for Iranian authorities, who currently find themselves in a more favorable position than four years ago. History indicates their adeptness in leveraging international developments to address domestic challenges. Tehran's adept crisis management and insulation against external influences amid strained U.S. relations are noteworthy.

Moreover, Iran's standing has notably strengthened since the onset of conflicts like those in Ukraine and the Middle East, reflecting positively on various fronts such as oil sales and foreign trade ties.

Nonetheless, internal discontent persists within the country. Rising unemployment, deteriorating socio-economic conditions, and the Raisi administration's struggles to address these issues underscore existing challenges, including security sector concerns. These factors provide ample cause for concern among the leadership of the Islamic Republic.

As the elections unfold gradually, internal dissatisfaction may escalate, potentially sparking anti-government protests. Consequently, authorities strive to maximize voter turnout while maintaining the country's core political direction. Yet, achieving high participation rates remains a formidable task in the current landscape.