THE ANTALYA MESSAGES

The 3rd Diplomatic Forum took place in Antalya, Türkiye, at the onset of March, with the central theme being Advancing Diplomacy In Times of Turmoil.

Over 4,000 delegates from 110 countries participated in the forum, with more than 20 of them represented at the level of heads of state and government, and around 60 being foreign ministers. Among the Azerbaijani representatives were Hikmet Hajiyev, Aide to the President and Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Presidential Administration, alongside Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov.

The Conflict Region

The Antalya Forum, initiated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a platform for discussing global issues such as xenophobia, terrorism, illegal migration, and climate change, aims to explore solutions to these challenges. The first forum was held in March 2022, and last year's event was canceled due to a severe earthquake in Türkiye that necessitated concentrated efforts to address its aftermath.

During the forum, discussions revolved around various topics including Institutionalisation in the Turkic World: OTS in the 21st Century, Sahel: From Security Risks to Permanent Stability, The Future of the European Security Architecture, New Dynamics of Cooperation in Eurasia, and New Foreign Policy Approaches to Understanding Changing Security Threats.

Notably, the crises in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the South Caucasus region garnered significant attention. President Erdogan highlighted the prevalence of crises in their region during his address at the forum's opening ceremony. He underscored the inefficacy of the current international relations system, citing events in Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine as evidence.

The addresses delivered by the Turkish President, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and other participants at the Congress underscored the urgency of halting the conflict in Gaza and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue, which should entail the creation of a Palestinian state. Discussions also touched on the importance of normalizing ties between Ankara and Damascus in light of the Syrian crisis. Lavrov highlighted the significance of maintaining the Syria-Turkey-Russia-Iran framework as a crucial element in resolving the Syrian conflict.

Discussions also touched on economic matters. The panel themed Paradigm Shift in Energy Security delved into the impact of the Ukrainian conflict on global energy markets, transitioning to clean energy sources, and international cooperation for stable and affordable energy supplies. Azerbaijan's pivotal role in ensuring European energy security was acknowledged during these deliberations. Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Péter Szijjártó highlighted the recent gas transport agreements signed with Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Romania, along with the potential for Azerbaijan to provide "green" energy through Georgia and Romania. Additionally, Azerbaijan's Deputy Energy Minister Kamal Abbasov, participating in a panel discussion, stressed the significance of agreements among Georgia, Hungary, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan, particularly focusing on the green energy pact for bolstering energy security. Abbasov emphasised Azerbaijan's active pursuit of renewable energy projects via the Caspian Sea and collaborative efforts with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on transmitting energy from Central Asia to Europe through the Black Sea. Furthermore, Azerbaijan's commitment to hosting the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change this November signifies its dedication to spearheading global initiatives for environmentally sustainable energy production.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan's expanding influence in Eurasian politics and economy was discussed at the panel session "Institutionalisation in the Turkic World: the OTS in the XXI century." Minister Jeyhun Bayramov emphasized regional cooperation's importance amidst global instability. He recalled that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, in his inaugural address, referred to the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) as "our family." Bayramov emphasized the critical role of regional cooperation amidst global instability and the perceived breakdown of the current world order. He underscored the significant importance of the Organisation of Turkic States in this context.

During bilateral discussions, regional challenges and opportunities were deliberated upon. The Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Russia assessed the status of their bilateral ties in accordance with the stipulations of the Declaration on Allied Cooperation from February 22, 2022. They reiterated their dedication to ongoing collaborative efforts within the Caspian Five and the 3+3 regional framework. Special emphasis was placed on the necessity of implementing the Trilateral Statement endorsed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia.

United Effort Towards Peace Necessary

The issue of Azerbaijani-Armenian settlement emerged as a pivotal topic at the Diplomatic Forum in Antalya. During discussions with OSCE Secretary General Helga-Maria Schmid and Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Bayramov highlighted Armenia's disruptive policies, including military provocations, rapid militarization, aggressive rhetoric, and detrimental impacts on the peace process.

At the session Peace, Development and Cooperation in the South Caucasus, Hikmet Hajiyev, Aide to the President of Azerbaijan, and Ruben Rubinian, Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament and Special Representative for the Normalisation of Armenian-Turkish Relations, presented diverging views. Rubinian affirmed Armenia's efforts towards a peace treaty based on mutual recognition of territorial integrity in line with the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration.

However, Hajiyev expressed scepticism regarding Armenia's sincerity, citing its historical reluctance to acknowledge Azerbaijan's sovereignty and territorial integrity post-war, leading to Azerbaijan's anti-terrorist operation in September 2023.

Hajiyev recalled that it was Baku that initiated the peace process. Having restored its territorial integrity and sovereignty on the basis of the norms and principles of international law, Azerbaijan aims at achieving sustainable peace in the South Caucasus. Meanwhile, Armenia is still not relinquishing its territorial claims against Azerbaijan. These claims are articulated in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution of Armenia, as well as in the documents against Azerbaijan submitted by it to international courts.

In his speech in Antalya, Hajiyev reaffirmed Azerbaijan's commitment to bilateral negotiations with Armenia, without mediators. "Azerbaijan pays special attention to the bilateral component of the work on the peace treaty. Peace lies between Baku and Yerevan, not in Paris, Brussels, or anywhere else. Both countries should join efforts and move forward together on the peace agenda," he noted. Concurrently, the Presidential Aide expressed regret that "there are forces that pursue a policy of militarization, incite an arms race, attempt to create new dividing lines in the region, and also wish to import their geopolitical intrigues that exist outside the South Caucasus region into it. There are certain forces that are attempting to develop the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan not as a border, but as a certain line of confrontation." Hajiyev emphasised that Azerbaijan expects Armenia "not to repeat the mistakes of past years," meaning that Yerevan's previous policy directed against Azerbaijan and preventing the establishment of peace had dire consequences, primarily for Armenia itself.

It is crucial to highlight that the outcomes of the Munich meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinian, followed by the Berlin talks between the Foreign Ministers of the two countries, indicated success and a mutual willingness to continue discussions towards the drafting and signing of a peace agreement. Yet, against this ostensibly favourable backdrop for the continuation of the peace process, Armenia undertakes actions that pave the way for an escalation of tension. This jeopardizes not only the prospect of peace between the adversaries but also the potential for normalizing Armenia's relations with Türkiye. It was affirmed at the forum that there will be no peace with Türkiye if there is no peace with Azerbaijan. As Türkiye's Special Representative Serdar Kilic stated, Ankara continues the process of normalization of relations with Armenia in close coordination with brotherly Azerbaijan. There is no alternative, nor can there be any.

It is not only its Turkic neighbours, to whom it continues to assert territorial claims, that observe Armenia's policy as an impediment to peace, cooperation, and security. Russia, too, voices its discontent with Armenia's actions. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov lamented the intensification of Armenia's military and political cooperation with the West, including the stationing of an EU mission on its territory. Highlighting the Armenian leadership's "deliberate choice to persistently follow a course of deteriorating relations with the Russian Federation," Lavrov voiced his grievances that Armenia has opted to rely on countries outside the region. "These are the same political engineers who are accustomed to managing the entire world from their apartments and who have never once brought benefit to anyone, anywhere in any part of the world," he remarked.

Lavrov's insistence that official Yerevan make a definitive decision regarding its role in the CSTO also served as a sign of the fraying ties between Armenia and Russia.

The Antalya Forum on the current state and prospects of the Azerbaijani-Armenian settlement once again showed that relations between the two South Caucasian countries will either be normalised in accordance with the principles of international law, as demanded by Azerbaijan, or there will be none at all. The choice is up to Armenia, so long as it does not make a mistake that could become irreversible.