GROWING DESPERATION

The Middle East teeters on the brink of a significant conflict, primarily due to the intensifying tensions between Iran and Israel. These nations have been engaged in a covert war across the territories of neighbouring Arab states for several years. It is evident that Israel's allies, including the United States and other Western countries, might become entangled in an actual conflict.

IDF Strikes

The already intricate dynamics in the Middle East have worsened following the Israeli Defence Forces' (IDF) airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1. This strike resulted in the deaths of five officers and two generals from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—Mohammad Reza Zahedi, head of the Al-Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, and his deputy, Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.

Iran, accusing Israel of breaching international norms and conventions, has threatened severe retaliation. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that Israel "will be punished by the hands of our brave men." The Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, also cautioned that the assault on the IRI consulate "will not go unanswered." Furthermore, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held Israel's ally, the US, accountable.

Overall, Israel's attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus has elicited a negative response from the global community. The Arab League, for instance, condemned Israel for trying to escalate the conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip to a broader regional war. Nonetheless, the UN Security Council failed to issue a collective statement on the matter. Although most members concurred that strikes on diplomatic institutions flagrantly violated the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and were thus indefensible, Western nations declined to denounce Tel Aviv's actions.

It is well-documented that Israel consistently targets Iranian interests in Syria. In late December 2023, an airstrike in a Damascus suburb claimed the life of IRGC General Sayed Razi Mousavi. Subsequently, in late January 2024, the Israeli Air Force bombarded an IRGC facility in the Syrian capital with missiles, resulting in at least five Iranian military advisors' deaths. Moreover, recent airstrikes in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor, which led to the deaths of at least 15 individuals, including an Iranian military advisor, should not be disregarded.

The IDF justifies its operations as defensive responses to Iranian aggression, specifically citing the Iranian drone attack on the Israeli naval base in Eilat, for which the Shiite group Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility. The IRGC's missile strikes on US and Israeli positions in Iraqi Kurdistan, targeting what the Iranians labeled the "spy headquarters" of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad, are also noteworthy. Israel's reprisal was swift—a strike in the Mezzeh neighbourhood in southwestern Damascus eliminated five IRGC members, including Yousef Omidzadeh, the head of Iranian intelligence in Syria.

Historically, the IDF has avoided targeting IRI diplomatic missions. Israel justifies the April 1 operation by asserting that the demolished building was not a consulate with diplomatic status but an IRGC military base. The primary target was General Zahedi, whose death marks the IRGC's most substantial loss since General Qassem Suleimani's demise following a US airstrike in Iraq in 2020. Israeli authorities allege that Zahedi and his deputy Rahimi, who were both killed on April 1, "were responsible for numerous attacks on Israeli and U.S. targets and were plotting further assaults."

The Israeli offensive has made an Iranian counterstrike inevitable, with the IRI leadership signaling its imminence. The specifics of the retaliation—its nature, location, timing, and executing forces—remain uncertain.

Tehran's Expected Response

Speculation abounds regarding Tehran's potential response, with two primary scenarios under consideration: a direct strike by Iran against Israel or a retaliatory action executed by Iranian proxies, such as Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. Additionally, there is uncertainty over whether the attack would target Israeli territory directly or one of its embassies abroad.

In anticipation of the latter scenario, Israel swiftly shuttered approximately three dozen of its foreign diplomatic missions. The nature of Iran's response—whether direct or indirect, forceful or restrained—highlights the mutual reluctance among Israel, the United States, and Tehran to escalate the situation into a full-blown regional conflict.

Washington has distanced itself from the assault on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, emphasizing its non-involvement. Notably, the Iranian president's administration disclosed a request from Washington urging restraint against American facilities. This appeal was corroborated by the United States, which also sought the influence of China, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia to moderate Tehran's actions. Despite being a traditional regional adversary of Iran, Saudi Arabia joined in condemning Tel Aviv's actions concerning the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus.

Consequently, the prospect of Iranian forces targeting US troops or facilities seems highly unlikely. Although Iran has forewarned Israel of impending retribution, it has simultaneously conveyed its disinclination to inflict significant damage on the "Zionist regime." Tehran's strategy appears to avoid a comprehensive escalation or direct warfare with its adversaries, namely Israel and its principal supporter, the United States, recognizing the unpredictable repercussions such a conflict would entail for itself.

The US and Israel have responded to hints of potential Iranian retaliation following the conclusion of the sacred Muslim holiday of Ramadan—Eid al-Fitr. Israel has signalled its preparedness to launch strikes on Iranian soil should an attack occur. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz have made pertinent declarations. Discussions within Israeli circles about targeting Iran's nuclear capabilities have also surfaced, coinciding with reports of Iran nearing the development of a nuclear warhead.

The United States has reiterated its unwavering support for Israel's security against threats from Iran and its affiliates. President Joe Biden affirmed, "Our commitment to Israel's security from these threats from Iran and its satellites is ironclad. Let me say it again: ironclad. We intend to do everything we can to protect Israel's security."

Amidst these developments, the American nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Dwight Eisenhower, accompanied by a fleet of 90 aircraft and helicopters and Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missile systems, has reportedly altered its course toward the northern Red Sea, in proximity to Israel. This manoeuvrer aims to bolster Israeli air defence capabilities and provide aerial protection in the event of an assault by Iran and its proxies, including the Houthis, who are within the operational range of the US carrier in the Red Sea.

Iran has reiterated its intent to confine its response to a limited-scale strike against Israel, a move that, while not negating the act of retaliation, would not constitute a significant escalation. This stance is further reflected in two diplomatic overtures extended by Tehran. Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, Iran made two significant diplomatic moves. The first involved Iran abandoning the idea of "punishing" Israel if the UN Security Council condemns its attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and brings the perpetrators of this military operation to justice. The second proposal, likely transmitted through Oman, conveyed Iran's willingness to refrain from attacking Israel if the United States could secure a cessation of hostilities in Gaza.

However, both Iranian initiatives faced insurmountable challenges given the current geopolitical climate. Western states, including the US, remain steadfast in protecting Israel's interests during UN discussions. While expressing concern over civilian casualties resulting from Israeli military operations in Gaza, they are unwilling to compromise Israel's position. This stance is partly due to the principle of not following Iran's lead, as articulated by John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications in the US National Security Council. Kirby suggests that Iran should exert pressure on the radical Palestinian movement Hamas to achieve a truce in Gaza. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government remains committed to launching an offensive in the Palestinian town of Rafah, further diminishing prospects for a Gaza truce.

Hezbollah's Provocative Actions

On April 12, Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group closely aligned with Iran, launched a massive rocket attack on Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported approximately 40 launches from Lebanese territory, with some intercepted and others falling in open terrain. Brigadier General Daniel Hagari, IDF spokesman, confirmed that most targets were successfully intercepted by air defenses. The IDF responded by striking southern Lebanon to neutralize the threat, triggered by an Israeli army attack on a large Hezbollah military compound.

Hezbollah justified its rocket attack as support for the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, framing it as part of their valiant resistance. They also cited retaliation for enemy attacks on settlements in southern Lebanon and civilian homes. However, it was evident that Hezbollah's actions served as a prelude to a larger Iranian response.

On the night of April 14, Iran, along with allied groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, launched over 300 drones and rockets toward Israel. Despite this onslaught, Israel's defence systems, supported by the US, Britain, and France, intercepted the majority of Iranian missiles and drones. Only a few ballistic missiles struck Israeli territory, including the Israeli Air Force base in the Negev Desert, which sustained damage but continues to operate.

Iran claimed successful destruction of military targets within Israel, specifically highlighting the Negev base. According to Tehran, Israeli F-35 fighter jets took off from this location to strike the IRI consulate in Damascus. Following the attack, Iran declared that "Operation Honest Promise" had achieved its objectives. However, Tehran issued a warning to Israel against retaliation and cautioned the US not to interfere in the confrontation between Iran and the "Zionist regime." Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, threatened that any Israeli retaliation would trigger a larger-scale operation, potentially targeting US bases in the region.

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the nation promptly after the Iranian attack commenced. He asserted a clear principle: Israel would strike back against any aggressor. However, despite launching massive strikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, Israel refrained from an immediate and forceful response to Iran itself. This strategic decision may have been influenced by the United States, particularly given Netanyahu's urgent telephone conversation with President Biden. American media reported Biden's warning to Netanyahu: the US would not support Israel's retaliation.

Washington's stance is unequivocal: it aims to prevent localized Iranian-Israeli skirmishes from spiraling into a full-scale war. Instead of relying solely on military actions, political instruments are being deployed to avert further escalation. The White House recently announced an emergency video conference among G7 countries to formulate a "unified diplomatic response" to the Iranian attack.

Despite the tension, there exists a chance for at least a temporary respite. All parties involved recognize that further military escalation could yield unpredictable consequences. Iran, in particular, finds satisfaction in launching its first direct attack on Israel in history as a response to the strike on its consulate. Israel, on the other hand, can justifiably claim credit for repelling the Iranian raid. Additionally, Western support for Israel during this critical moment has mitigated its isolation, despite international condemnation due to the Gaza military operation.

Iran executed an impressive and spectacular attack on Israel, yet it failed to inflict tangible losses. Both sides now present the situation as a victory, emphasizing their respective narratives. However, these "representations" do not negate the broader context: the Iran-Israel conflict is a crucial component of the escalating tension in the Middle East. Against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical confrontation among global power centres, this region once again emerges as a significant hotbed of instability, posing a serious challenge to global security.