ERDOGAN'S VOYAGE TO BAGHDAD

On April 22, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made his inaugural official visit to Iraq after a twelve-year hiatus, marking a potential new chapter in Turkish-Iraqi relations. The summit culminated in the signing of numerous bilateral agreements across various sectors and the establishment of joint activity objectives. Crucially, both state leaders concurred on a united front against terrorism and initiated a novel global transport corridor.

Background of the Relationship

Spanning from the 16th to the early 20th century, the regions now constituting Iraq—specifically the provinces of Baghdad, Basra, and Mosul—were integral parts of the Ottoman Empire. After the World War I, the empire relinquished Iraq, which subsequently became a British colony and, later, a mandate territory in 1922. This period was marked by territorial disputes between the newly-established Republic of Türkiye and the British-crafted Kingdom of Iraq established in 1923. Notably, Türkiye's attempt to annex Mosul through military support of a local uprising ultimately failed, leading to the relinquishment of its claim over the province.

Throughout the twentieth century, Turkish-Iraqi relations were fraught with intermittent discord over border disputes, terrorism, and water rights. A pivotal moment arrived in the early 2000s with Erdogan's ascension as Türkiye's prime minister, leading to a series of cooperative agreements with Baghdad in 2008.

However, the Arab Spring in 2011 and subsequent armed insurgencies and ISIS terrorism strained Ankara-Baghdad relations anew. Türkiye's establishment of military bases and training camps in Iraq, under the pretext of ISIS and PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) threats, strained the 378-kilometre Iraqi-Turkish border and soured bilateral ties.

The liberation of Mosul heralded a gradual thaw in relations, with regional cooperation and rapprochement gaining traction in recent years.

Results of the Visit

The visit yielded 26 partnership documents, encompassing counterterrorism, water sharing, and religious cooperation. Erdogan's agenda focused on three primary areas: combating terrorism, establishing the "Development Path" transport corridor linking Iraqi Basra with Türkiye, and a $20 billion investment to bolster trade relations, with these topics being interconnected.

A memorandum of understanding was signed between Iraq, Türkiye, Qatar, and the UAE during Erdogan's Baghdad sojourn. The involvement of Qatar and the UAE—key regional oil, gas, and trade hubs—in constructing the shortest transport corridor between Europe and the Persian Gulf via Türkiye is indicative of the project's potential. This corridor promises to reduce the transit time for commercial goods between the Indian Ocean and Europe to 25 days.

The "Development Pathway" gains further significance due to the closure of the Red Sea transport corridor and the collapse of the US-EU India-Middle East-Europe (IMEC) rail and sea corridor project between the UAE and Israel.

Threat of Terrorism

The PKK, particularly its factions entrenched in Iraq's Sinjar region, poses a significant threat to the "Path to Development" project, especially along the borders with Türkiye and Syria.

The extent to which military conflicts can jeopardize transport corridors was exemplified by last year's Hamas attack on Israel. Consequently, both Baghdad and Ankara recognize the critical importance of securing the "Development Path" corridor route.

On March 14, following a security conference between Iraq and Türkiye, Turkish officials visited Baghdad for the Second Security Summit. A landmark achievement was Iraq's designation of the PKK as a "banned" organization, signalling cooperation with Ankara for the withdrawal of PKK forces from the border region. A joint operations centre to combat terrorism and coordinate anti-terrorist operations is planned, bolstering Türkiye's efforts against the PKK and securing the future transport corridor's route.

Kurds in Erbil and Turkomans in Baghdad

Erdogan's engagements with Iraq's Sunni community and Turkoman activists, as well as Ankara's outreach to Baghdad, underscore Türkiye's commitment to its traditional allies. The evolution of Iraqi-Turkish relations is poised to fortify Ankara's bonds with Iraq's Sunni and Turkoman populations.

Erdogan's subsequent visit to Erbil on April 23 signifies the strategic importance of Iraqi Kurdistan in countering the PKK, with Ankara leveraging Kurdish autonomy to combat the terrorist organization.

Risks

Large-scale projects inherently carry substantial risks, as evidenced by the fate of IMEC and the current Suez Canal situation. The PKK remains the primary threat, with ISIS also posing a significant risk within the Iraq-Türkiye border region. The potential for future threats, possibly orchestrated by external parties, cannot be discounted.

The future of the "Development Path" initiative and the evolution of Turkish-Iraqi relations indeed hinge on the broader context of Middle Eastern stability, a region historically characterized by its complexity and volatility. Iran's stance, given its significant regional influence, will be particularly pivotal in shaping the trajectory of this project. While Tehran's response has been neutral thus far, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is fluid, and positions can shift with changing circumstances. As such, the success of the "Development Path" will likely be influenced by a confluence of factors, including regional dynamics, the interests of neighbouring countries, and the overarching goal of fostering peace and development in an area that has long grappled with conflict and uncertainty.