AMBIGUOUS VICTORY

The victory of Narendra Modi, the current head of the Cabinet of Ministers, in the Indian elections is a historic event poised to shape the future of one of the world's largest countries.

The conclusion of the parliamentary elections, an unprecedented six-week marathon, underscored the dramatic context and the profound divisions within Indian society. The political forces vying for 543 seats in the lower house of parliament were essentially competing for the right to form a government led by a prime minister who will steer the country's development for the foreseeable future.

In contrast to the previous two elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will not be able to form the government independently this time. It will require the support of other members of the National Democratic Alliance. The party's performance in these elections has declined compared to 2019, securing only 240 seats—63 fewer than before.

This marks a return to the era of political coalitions reminiscent of a decade ago. Between 2004 and 2014, the country was governed by United Progressive Alliance-1 and United Progressive Alliance-2 under the leadership of the Indian National Congress (INC).

Back to the Future

The critical nature of these elections was evident not only in the participation of over 640 million voters, whose votes were fiercely contested, but also in the deadly heat wave that gripped the country during this period. Temperatures in some areas nearly reached 50°C, resulting in the deaths of dozens of voters and election officials.

Even before the final results were announced, it was evident that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party was the favorite. Numerous exit polls indicated that Modi and his BJP could secure a two-thirds majority in parliament, enabling changes to the country's constitution. This would allow Modi to realize his long-held vision of transforming a multicultural India, founded on Gandhism, into Bharat, rooted in Hindu nationalism—Hindutva.

Historically, these two ideological currents within the national liberation movement in India clashed significantly. An assassination attempt on Gandhi, leading to his death, was orchestrated by Indian nationalists. Among the accused was the renowned writer Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, considered one of the founders of Hindutva, though he was acquitted at trial. The nationalists' defeat led to a long absence from the political scene, dominated by the Indian National Congress founded by the Gandhi-Nehru clan. The BJP emerged three decades after India's independence and rapidly accumulated political capital by advocating social justice and traditional values.

The BJP first came to power in 1998 as part of the National Democratic Alliance coalition but lost to the INC in 2004. In 2014, the party regained power and has retained it since, with Narendra Modi as the enduring leader.

Indian Nationalism in Foreign Policy

Over ten years, Modi's nationalist policies have significantly reshaped India's secular democracy. As he consolidated his power, Modi proposed increasingly ambitious projects, including renaming India to Bharat and revising the country's administrative-territorial divisions.

In August 2019, amid escalating tensions in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian government abolished the state and created two union territories—Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh—by revoking Article 370 of the constitution, which granted special status to the region. Jammu and Kashmir was the only Indian state with a predominantly Muslim population.

Tensions between Muslims and local authorities also surfaced in other regions due to the ruling party's increasingly pronounced anti-Islamic policies. During the election campaign, Modi accused the INC and Muslims of conspiring to seize and divide Hindu property and labelled the nearly 200 million Muslim minority as "lackeys" with "too many children." Despite this, Modi maintained that neither he nor his party was anti-Muslim, but merely criticized the opposition's intentions.

Under Modi, relations between New Delhi and Islamabad have significantly deteriorated, as have relations with China, Pakistan's main regional ally. Border tensions with both countries often result in serious conflicts.

Recognizing the China-Pakistan tandem as its main geopolitical rival, New Delhi has developed a strategy to contain China in the region, dubbed the "diamond necklace" in contrast to China's "pearl necklace" strategy. This strategy aims to create favorable economic infrastructure in partner states to promote India's initiatives while showcasing its military strength. This is evident in the South Caucasus, where India is enhancing military-technical cooperation with Armenia, contrasting with Azerbaijani-Pakistani bilateral and Azerbaijani-Pakistani-Türkiye trilateral military cooperation.

Under Modi, India has shifted its approach to international security, actively participating in regional military-political alliances. The most prominent is the Quad bloc, involving Australia, India, the United States, and Japan, established in 2007 and revived in 2017 with substantial US assistance. Modi's government has enthusiastically supported this process.

Cooperation with another regional US ally, Israel, has also intensified, with India essentially withdrawing support for the unilateral establishment of a Palestinian state.

Tightening Nuts Without Breaking Threads

In India, the hard-line foreign policy was accompanied by an equally stringent domestic policy.

During the election campaign, allegations of BJP misconduct emerged. Opponents claimed the BJP undermined India's democratic process by harassing and intimidating opposition candidates and parties and suppressing Muslim voters, who are not part of Modi's core electoral base. BJP leaders, including Modi, were accused of openly violating electoral rules with polarizing anti-Muslim rhetoric.

Opposition parties also accused the BJP of using the state apparatus to harass opponents, including arresting senior opposition figures and freezing INC funds by tax authorities.

US think tank Freedom House reported that the BJP has "increasingly used government institutions to attack political opponents." For instance, on the final polling day, Arvind Kejriwal, a prominent opposition leader and chief minister of Delhi, was returned to jail after being temporarily released to campaign. Kejriwal claimed the corruption case against him was "politically motivated" by Modi's government.

Rahul Gandhi, a key member of the INC and a descendant of a political dynasty, was convicted of criminal defamation last year following a complaint from a Modi party member. A two-year jail sentence led to his disqualification from parliament until the sentence was suspended by a higher court.

In February, former chief minister of Jharkhand, Hemant Soren, was arrested on corruption charges, sparking a high-profile scandal. Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi, and Soren are members of an opposition alliance of more than two dozen parties united in their desire to end Modi's rule.

Despite Modi being favored before the elections, the results raise doubts about his unassailable authority. Growing societal divisions, opposition dissatisfaction with political system arbitrariness, and attempts to revise India's political model are increasingly unpopular. Consequently, the ruling party and its leader's real ratings are declining.

The near future will reveal whether Modi will heed the voters' alarming signal and adjust his course or continue to tighten the screws, accelerating India's transformation into Bharat.