RACE TOWARDS UNPREDICTABLE FINALE

The confrontation between the Western powers and Russia grows increasingly ferocious. Intertwined with the raging conflict in Ukraine, it is accompanied by geopolitical turbulence across various regions, an escalating arms race, and the looming spectre of nuclear warfare.

Armaments and Objectives

The front-lines of the Russian-Ukrainian war underwent profound shifts this spring. The Russian military's massive offensive threatened Ukraine with the loss of Kharkov, its second-largest metropolis. This compelled Kiev's Western allies to grant the Ukrainian Armed Forces the ability to strike targets within Russian territory.

At commemorations in France marking the 80th anniversary of the Allied D-Day landings, US President Joe Biden declared, "The United States, NATO, and a coalition of over 50 nations stand resolutely with Ukraine." The official US authorization to employ weapons supplied to Ukraine against targets on Russian soil was a watershed moment. Even if this authorization restricts strikes to border regions of the Russian Federation, targeting solely locations from which attacks on Ukraine originate. Aligned with this stance, Washington, as reported by US media, continues to oppose Kiev's use of long-range ATACMS missiles, except for strikes on Crimea.

Germany adheres to a limited approach, declining to furnish Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles yet permitting strikes on Russian territory using two weapons systems delivered to Kiev - the Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer and the Mars II armoured multiple rocket launcher (with a maximum range of 40 km).

The UK and France have also affirmed Ukraine's right to strike targets in Russia. However, while French President Emmanuel Macron's position mirrors that of the United States, asserting that the West should enable Kiev to "neutralize military facilities from which missiles are launched against Ukraine," the UK has lifted restrictions on strikes against Russian territory using long-range Storm Shadow missiles. Several other NATO member states, including Canada, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Poland, Scandinavia, and the Baltic nations, have similarly allowed unrestricted use of their weapons supplied to Kiev.

As anticipated, Russia reacted with extreme hostility to the West's "arms" decision. Moscow requested an emergency UN Security Council session. The Russian Permanent Mission to the UN accused the United States and European countries of seeking to prolong the conflict in Ukraine to weaken Russia. Crucially, Moscow made clear that in response to the West's escalating support for Ukraine, reciprocal measures would be taken to undermine the interests of NATO, the United States, and the EU across various regions worldwide.

Who Will Take the Bait?

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow might begin providing its weapons to anti-Western forces globally. He posed the following query: "If someone deems it permissible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, why should we not have the right to supply our weapons of the same class to those regions where sensitive facilities of the countries acting against Russia will be targeted?"

Reiterating Moscow's stance, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev emphasized that the Russian leader, who sanctioned the delivery of Russian weapons to regions engaged in conflicts with states supplying arms to Ukraine, has profoundly reshaped national foreign policy. "Let the US and its allies now experience the direct deployment of Russian weapons by third parties... Irrespective of their political leanings and international recognition. Their adversary is the US, so they are allies to us."

Global media swiftly engaged in speculation about which countries or regions might receive Russian weapons for subsequent strikes against the West. The prevailing view identifies the three most powerful Western nations - the United States, the United Kingdom, and France - as the most vulnerable. Not merely because they provide the most substantial military assistance to Ukraine but because, unlike smaller states like the Netherlands, Denmark, or Lithuania, these three wield extensive global influence and maintain numerous military installations beyond their borders. Consequently, due to their active involvement in world affairs, including periodic military campaigns across various regions, the USA, Great Britain, and France have been "honoured" with a multitude of adversaries in the form of states and armed groups. These include nations such as Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, and armed factions like the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah. The Western powers' potential targets span Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania, where millions engage in struggles against American hegemony and European neo-colonialism.

One can envision the predicaments the West might confront if opposing forces worldwide acquire the latest Russian armaments. For its part, the West will undoubtedly not remain idle, and its anticipated belligerent response to attacks by those combating "America and global imperialism" will only further stoke the flames of global instability.

Meanwhile, the inescapable escalation of this clash between major power blocs, under such volatile conditions, also brings forth the risk of nuclear conflict. Even the fact that the United States, over two years into the Russian-Ukrainian war, persists in imposing "shock" restrictions on Kiev is indicative of its recognition of the grave threat of nuclear escalation.

The Spectre of Nuclear War

Persistent discourse in the West contemplates the likelihood of Russia deploying nuclear weapons should the Ukrainian military, bolstered by US and European military hardware and armaments, achieve success in combat operations.

For its part, Russia asserts it harbours no intention to unleash nuclear weapons yet issues warnings of such a possibility. The doctrinal foundation is the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence, adopted in June 2020. This document sanctions Russia's use of nuclear weapons as either a retaliatory nuclear strike or a nuclear response to a non-nuclear attack (if the latter constitutes an aggression threatening the very existence of the state).

Russia's conduct of exercises rehearsing the use of operational-tactical nuclear weapons has sparked widespread reverberations. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, these drills aim to maintain the readiness of equipment and personnel to deploy nuclear arms in the face of aggressive rhetoric from the collective West. Against the backdrop of Russia and the West's current weapons programs, this event has only further heightened the palpable threat of nuclear war should the United States and its NATO allies entirely discard all restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western armaments against Russian territory.

Military expert circles do not discount the possibility that the risk of nuclear conflict could escalate significantly if Ukraine receives US permission to strike airfields deep within Russia. However, this is precisely the scenario Washington has refrained from extending to Kiev. Only the prospect of the West substantially reinforcing Ukraine's air defenses, coupled with the effective deployment of American F-16 fighter jets transferred to Kiev, is under serious consideration. Yet, this already represents another potential narrative focused on bolstering Ukraine's defensive capabilities rather than its offensive potential.

In this context, the risk of a nuclear conflagration between the West and Russia can be regarded as low, especially since both power blocs profess their disinclination for direct military confrontation. However, the crux of the nuclear war risk lies in the mere possibility of such a calamity. For even its low probability does not negate the fact that even a slight loss of control could precipitate catastrophic consequences for all parties involved and humanity as a whole. Evidently, the state of treading the precipice will persist until the conflict in Ukraine reaches its conclusion.