BREAKING DOWN PEACE, OR ARMENIA'S GETTING ANGRY

Azerbaijan continues to strengthen its positions along the border with Armenia. Local news agencies reported that Azerbaijani Defence Minister Colonel General Zakir Hasanov and Deputy Defence Minister Lieutenant General Hikmet Mirzayev visited military units deployed on the conditional border with Armenia to familiarize themselves with the social and living conditions of servicemen.

At first glance, this might not seem like a significant development. However, Hasanov and Mirzayev's trip coincided with a dangerous increase in what can be termed "ceasefire violations," "incidents," or more accurately, provocations at various parts of the border, as recorded by Armenia.

Yerevan's Double Play

To say that playing with fire on the border raises questions is an understatement. Baku and Yerevan are negotiating peace. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, speaking at the session "Azerbaijan's role in the new geopolitical conditions" at the Cernobbio international forum, stated: "We can achieve peace in the South Caucasus. We see that it is possible through peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia." Moreover, according to the head of state, about 80% of the text of the peace treaty has already been agreed upon. Aliyev emphasized that "we have already launched the process of border delimitation, even demarcation. Yes, this is the first small step, as only a 13-kilometre section of the border with Armenia with a total length of thousands of kilometres has been agreed upon. However, it is a step in the right direction. We hope that this initiative of Azerbaijan on peace negotiations will lead to the signing of a peace treaty."

Baku's peaceful appeal seemed to resonate in Yerevan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, during his visit to Armenia's border regions, assured the residents that their children were not in danger in a school located 50 metres from the border. Additionally, in Yerevan, there is talk of reforming the constitution.

However, against this backdrop, there are reports of Armenian shelling of Azerbaijani positions with alarming regularity. How should this be interpreted?

One could resort to "calming interpretations," suggesting that nerves failed, the border runs through mountainous and wooded terrain, where a shot at any suspicious shadow cannot be ruled out. However, these "accidental incidents" are becoming too numerous to be considered as such. A single shot can be accidental, but not massive fire and the launching of reconnaissance drones towards Azerbaijani positions - this was also noted.

All this leads to concerning thoughts: the leading edge of Azerbaijani defence is being probed, for which "battlefield reconnaissance," aerial reconnaissance, and a number of other methods are being utilized. Such actions are not undertaken merely "just in case." In fact, Yerevan is playing a double game. On one hand, it appears to be participating in peace talks, agreeing on the text of a peace treaty, etc. On the other hand, it is rapidly arming itself and engaging in a very dangerous game on the conditional border. To what end?

Military Illusions

The real balance of power does not bode well for Yerevan. Armenia suffered a heavy defeat in the 44-day war in the autumn of 2020. This was followed by the defeat of a 15,000-strong group, which, contrary to all agreements, was in the zone of temporary deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Garabagh. As a result, the Armenian Armed Forces lost $5 billion worth of weapons and armoured vehicles. Russia, the main supplier of ammunition, is now out of Yerevan's reach. Pashinyan and his team are attempting to engage in "arms begging" from their new Western friends. And they seem to be acquiring something. But this will not even begin to patch the holes. Armenia's armed forces are still far from their September 2020 state. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is not standing still. Baku continues to rearm its army, purchasing new weapons. Today, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces are much stronger than during the 44-day war.

It is unlikely that Yerevan is mistaken about this. But planning a long-term and large-scale war is one thing, and provocations with a completely different purpose are quite another. Armenian "strategists" seem to continue believing that Azerbaijan has not yet had time to properly fortify itself on the lands liberated from occupation, to create the required infrastructure and the necessary "density" of defensive orders. It is not excluded that Yerevan hopes to find a weak point in the Azerbaijani defence. Of course, this will not bring strategic success. But tactical results, according to the Armenian side, are quite possible. Yerevan seriously believes that in case of aggravation of the situation on the border it will be possible to provoke a war with Azerbaijan and convert promises of both old allies and new friends into real military support. But the main thing is that armed provocations on the border are a reliable tool for disrupting the negotiations, which are clearly proceeding according to a scenario that is disadvantageous to Yerevan.

Unwilling Negotiations

Azerbaijan conducts its policy in a principled and honest manner. The words of President Ilham Aliyev are in line with his deeds. The word is as weighty as an official signature. In Armenia, however, everything is different.

Yerevan diplomats do not want to take responsibility for disrupting the dialogue. Nor does Yerevan show any particular desire to sign a treaty on Azerbaijan's terms. It is all about the constitution, which stipulates territorial claims to Azerbaijani Garabagh and which the Armenian authorities refuse to change.

In the first days of autumn in Yerevan, there seems to have been talk of constitutional reform. But how long will these discussions continue and will the changes affect exactly the claims to Garabagh? What is known, however, is that Yerevan has learnt well how to negotiate without the desire to negotiate. "Forgetting" about the obligations undertaken and even signed agreements, declaring one thing and in real life acting differently, finally, as if to negotiate, but doing everything to avoid reaching an agreement - this is the order of the day for Yerevan. It is enough to recall the negotiations under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group and the repeated violations of the ceasefire, including during the 44-day war. And 2 September 2023? When Nikol Pashinyan, having signed documents in Prague recognising Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, sent congratulations to the leadership of the illegal junta in Khankendi on "Artsakh's independence day." Naturally, Baku regarded this as a gross violation of the agreements reached and an undermining of the negotiation process.

Yerevan Revanchists' Sabre Rattling

On September 2, 2024, there were no lavish congratulations to the separatists. What is there to congratulate? Garabagh was de-occupied, the junta was overthrown and even announced its self-dissolution... Nevertheless, on this day in Yerevan, there was a kind of "show of strength" of local revanchists. Samvel Shahramanyan, the last leader of the overthrown junta, and his few "associates" visited the Yerablur military cemetery. And there they solemnly announced that the doors of the "Artsakh representation" in Yerevan would be open all day long.

The opposition, represented by the leaders of the Garabagh Clan, also hurried to make a statement on the topic. The Armenian Church was not left aside either. Echmiadzin Catholicos Garegin II issued a special message, in which he sanctified the idea of forceful revenge. "In the conditions of occupation of Artsakh and expulsion of the entire Armenian population from there, we continue to celebrate this historic day, because Artsakh is not the past, it is the historical homeland, where Artsakh Armenians have lived and created for thousands of years," he declared. "We believe that our historical memory and the feats of our ancestors will strengthen us, and our people will overcome the disastrous consequences of the war with faith and hope, and with patriotic spirit and devotion to their roots will strive for the realisation of their national dream and vision."

We can say that the official authorities have not made any mark in what is happening. But the very fact that there are structures of the overthrown junta in Armenia already speaks volumes. All the more so against the background of Yerevan's desire to delay negotiations and avoid cardinal solutions by all means.

There is also a manageable version here: they say that Nikol Pashinyan finds it difficult to overcome public opinion, which is in no way inclined to give up its claims to Garabagh. But the behaviour of official Yerevan looks too much like an attempt to put the brakes on the issue, leave itself room for manoeuvre and wait for a convenient moment when dreams of revenge and re-occupation of Azerbaijani lands can be realised. And the concrete situation will show with whose help - France, the United States, Russia or Iran. Especially since the same Pashinyan, who moved Araik Harutyunyan's "inauguration" to Shusha, made statements in the style of "Garabagh is Armenia, and that's it!" and started the promised "new war for new territories" is in power in Armenia, which he successfully lost. If the Armenian authorities had drawn conclusions after the war, the anti-terrorist raids of 2023 would simply not have been necessary. We want to believe that after the defeat of the junta, the right conclusions will still be drawn.