ONE CHINA VS. TWO

The issue of Taiwan has once again made headlines among the global community. The Chinese army's military exercise codenamed Joint Sword-2024B in the waters surrounding the island marked a new escalation of tensions.

Joint Sword

The goal of the military exercise launched by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) was to practice raids, blockades, and control of Taiwan's major ports and regions. According to Li Xi, spokesman for the Eastern Zone of the Chinese Army's Combat Command, "the exercise serves as a stern warning to separatist forces seeking Taiwan's independence and is a just and necessary step to safeguard national sovereignty and maintain national unity. This "necessary step" has indeed proven to be an impressive tool of pressure from Beijing. The navy, air force, missile forces, and other branches of the People's Republic of China (PRC) participated in the exercise. In particular, the deployment of the world's largest coast guard ship, CCG 2901, signalled that China's coast guard forces intend to intensify their activities around Taiwan.

The confrontation between Beijing and Taipei, which dates back to 1949 during the Chinese civil war, is thus entering a new phase. The Taiwanese authorities, who refer to the island as the Republic of China, refuse to submit to China. However, the Taiwanese political elite is divided over dialogue with Beijing. The nationalist Kuomintang party, which played a key role in Taiwan's struggle for independence from the Communist government in Beijing, generally favors rapprochement with mainland China while allowing dialogue under the "one country, two systems" model proposed by Beijing. Conversely, Taiwan's other major political force, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), strongly advocates independence for the "Republic of China". The commitment to "Taiwan independence" hardened significantly after DPP representative Tsai Ing-wen assumed the presidency in 2016. Relations between Beijing and Taipei have become increasingly strained, especially since the beginning of this year, when DPP representative Lai Qingde won the "presidential election" in Taiwan.

Lai Qingde's speech during the celebration of "National Republic of China Day" on October 10, where he reiterated the island's independence and Taiwan's insubordination to China, provoked an angry response from Beijing in the form of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Demonstrating steadfastness in upholding "one China" and advancing the cause of "China's reunification," Beijing responded to Lai's statements by declaring that Taiwan has never been and will never become a sovereign state; just days later, they conducted the Joint Sword 2024B military exercise.

A key objective of the exercise was to simulate a scenario in which the island is under pressure from both sides. Western media have suggested that the PRC is preparing to blockade Taiwan's ports in both the north and south. Meanwhile, Beijing has expressed satisfaction that the exercise demonstrated the PLA's ability to blockade and paralyse the island, serving as a warning to Lai Qingde and targeting "the heart of the separatists.

In doing so, Beijing underscored what is already clear - Taiwan's vulnerability in the event of a blockade. The island's economy is almost entirely dependent on foreign relations and international trade, so a blockade could disrupt energy supplies and vital products, threatening Taiwan's entire economy. The Taiwanese authorities have understandably stated that a genuine blockade by China would constitute an act of war with far-reaching consequences for international trade. This assertion is particularly pertinent because a potential military conflict resulting from a blockade could devastate the global electronics industry; Taiwan is a leading producer of semiconductors, which power a significant portion of the world's gadgets and computers.

Taipei views China's military manoeuvrers as a "blatant provocation" and has vowed to deploy "appropriate force" in response. However, it is clear that Taiwan's military capabilities are insufficient to effectively counter the PRC. As a result, Taiwan's leaders rely primarily on what is essentially the main guarantee of the R.O.C.'s existence: continued and increased US military aid.

"Peaceful Reunification" and the American Barrier

The United States acknowledges the People's Republic of China's (PRC) claim to sovereignty over Taiwan but simultaneously characterises the island's status as undetermined. The United States exploits the "unsettled status" as a strategic advantage to reinforce its geopolitical position in the Asia-Pacific region, providing substantial political support to Taipei along with arms and military equipment.

Incumbent US President Joe Biden has repeatedly pledged to "defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack." One of his recent decisions was to direct Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to allocate up to $567 million for defence products and other military assistance to Taiwan. In the wake of China's military exercises, an announcement was made regarding a new United States aid package for Taiwan. The Pentagon has announced its approval of a $2 billion arms sale to Taiwan, which includes the delivery of NASAMS advanced air defence systems. The Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency has specified that the aforementioned deal includes missiles valued at $1.16 billion and radar systems valued at $828 million.

In the context of the Joint Sword exercises and the mounting tensions between Beijing and Taipei, the United States took two actions that were clearly directed against China. The initial demonstration of collective military action was the large-scale KAMANDAG ("Cooperation of Sea Warriors") exercise in the Philippines, which involved not only US and Philippine military forces but also representatives from Great Britain, Australia, South Korea, and Japan. Secondly, in the wake of China's military exercises, US and Canadian Navy vessels—specifically, the US destroyer USS Higgins and Canadian patrol ship Vancouver—navigated through the Taiwan Strait from south to north. The Americans characterized this as a routine transit through the Taiwan Strait, asserting that "freedom of navigation applies under international law."

However, Beijing sharply condemned this action by the US and Canada, accusing them of "undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait." In a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, it was asserted that "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory; the Taiwan issue is not a question of freedom of navigation but rather about China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. China categorically opposes any provocations that threaten sovereignty and security under the guise of freedom of navigation."

How far can the escalation progress?

Notwithstanding the considerable degree of confrontation, it is evident that neither China nor the United States—which has expressed support for Taiwan—is inclined to initiate a military conflict. This is particularly noteworthy in light of the fact that one of the defining features of this period is the United States' preoccupation with its forthcoming presidential election, scheduled for 5 November.

The current Democratic Biden administration seems disinclined to assume responsibility for potentially deploying military actions against China. It seems probable that, should Kamala Harris assume office following a successful election bid, she would adopt a similar approach, while not entirely ruling out periodic provocative actions against China or support for Taiwanese authorities.

In the context of Donald Trump's potential re-election as US president, he has stated that Taiwan offers no tangible benefits, having previously lost the market for microprocessors to other countries. The British publication The Guardian interpreted these comments as a potential indication of a shift in Washington's commitment to supporting Taiwan in the event of Trump's re-election in November.

Nevertheless, it seems implausible that Trump would wholly disavow the United States' traditional support for Taipei in the event of his potential return to office. Such support represents a pivotal aspect of US policy in the context of mounting global competition with China. It is clear that the United States recognizes the potential consequences of withdrawing its support for Taiwan, which could lead to dire circumstances for the island. Nevertheless, should Trump emerge triumphant in the presidential election, it is possible that the United States may pursue a more economic approach to confronting China, particularly with regard to Taiwan. Trump himself indicated this when he responded on the campaign trail regarding possible actions if China "invades Taiwan." He dismissed the possibility of military force while threatening China with tariffs ranging from 150% to 200% on its goods. Additionally, he stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping "respects me and knows I'm crazy."

Meanwhile, China has adopted a strategic approach to achieving a peaceful resolution regarding its rebellious island. Chinese authorities are actively promoting initiatives designed to deepen regional integration across the Taiwan Strait, with a particular focus on Fujian Province, which has historically been associated with islands in this strait. The Chinese government in Beijing has encouraged officials within the People's Republic of China's ruling Communist Party to make "pioneering efforts for peaceful reunification" with Taiwan. It is noteworthy that Xi Jinping made a definitive statement in December 2023 during his meeting with US President Biden in San Francisco, wherein he asserted that China's intention was to reunify with Taiwan peacefully, rather than by force.

Nevertheless, Beijing's stated intention to pursue reunification with Taiwan through peaceful means does not preclude the possibility of resorting to force to assert its sovereignty over the island. The periodic military exercises, such as Joint Sword, serve as compelling evidence of this reality. Moreover, Chen Binhua, the chairman of China's State Council's Island Affairs Office, issued a stark warning, stating: "It is not within our power to renounce the use of force." "Regardless of the number of troops Taiwan possesses or the quantity of weaponry it acquires—and irrespective of external intervention—should it undertake risky actions, it will inevitably result in its own destruction." Chen Binhua reaffirmed that China's endeavors to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity "will not cease for even a moment."

Therefore, the status quo surrounding Taiwan will continue to exist in a precarious equilibrium between peace and war, significantly influencing both US-China relations and the security of the Asia-Pacific region and the global community. It seems inevitable that the Taiwan issue will continue to represent one of the most volatile sources of tension on the international stage in the foreseeable future.