DIFFICULT CHOICE

On December 14, the Georgian Central Election Commission declared Mikhail Kavelashvili, the candidate of the ruling Georgian Dream party, the winner of the presidential election. He garnered votes from 224 electors, surpassing the 300 electoral votes required by law, which stipulates that one half of the electoral votes must come from members of parliament, while the other half must come from representatives of the regions. Notably, Kavelashvili was the sole candidate to replace the former French citizen Salome Zurabishvili, who had expressed opposition to the election results.

In his inaugural interview, the newly elected president stated that he had been urged to run for president by Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the Georgian Dream party and its honorary chairman, along with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. In his inaugural interview, Kavelashvili articulated his commitment to restoring the presidential institution to its constitutional framework.

Following the announcement of the election results, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conveyed his congratulations to Mikhail Kavelashvili. A day later, congratulations were also extended by another close neighbour, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Elections as an Occasion

On December 13, French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the Georgian people on the eve of the first anniversary of Georgia's EU candidate status. He asserted that the betrayal of Georgia's European aspirations, as articulated in its constitution, is unacceptable. Georgia's aspiration to integrate into Europe must not be stifled. The decision to pursue this path is a sovereign right of the Georgian people, and today, this decision to join the European family is peacefully expressed in Tbilisi and several dozen other cities across the country," he asserted.

Kakha Kaladze, Secretary General of the ruling Georgian Dream party, stated that President Salome Zurabishvili "served not Georgia but foreign forces." He expressed regret that it was his party that had nominated Zurabishvili in the last presidential election.

Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili made an appeal to Zurabishvili, urging her to adhere to Georgian legislation. "My appeal is simply that she does not betray the Georgian people once again by initiating sabotage. I do not believe she will act in opposition to the will of the Georgian people. The Georgian people have already provided their verdict on this matter, as evidenced by their electoral choices on October 26. The appeal that is being made is to submit to the will of the Georgian people," said the Speaker.

The October 26 presidential elections have led to the emergence of another protest movement. Demonstrators, joined by Salome Zurabishvili, congregated in front of the Georgian parliament building, where they were detained. The demonstrators' demands included the production of Kavelashvili's diploma of higher education, which he reportedly lacks.

In response, law enforcement authorities were compelled to deploy additional forces and water cannons to the scene.

Pre-election Atmosphere

On December 11, Emmanuel Macron contacted Bidzina Ivanishvili by phone. The motivations behind this communication remain conjectural. One hypothesis suggests that the call conveyed a warning, indicating that if the situation in Georgia does not improve, more radical scenarios could unfold there. Another assumption is that the call was an attempt to negotiate and provide guarantees to Ivanishvili for a secure life in France, while suggesting it was time for him to relinquish power.

Incidentally, both Ivanishvili and the "lame duck" Zurabishvili hold dual citizenship of France and Georgia. Additionally, Ivanishvili's wife holds French citizenship. In 2011, Ivanishvili voluntarily renounced his Russian citizenship and initiated the process of renouncing his French citizenship. However, in 2013, he suspended this protracted bureaucratic procedure. Notably, in 2020, President Macron of France bestowed upon him the prestigious Légion d'Honneur, a gesture that underscores the deepening of diplomatic relations between the two nations.

On December 12, media outlets reported that Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze was preparing to resign and that Bidzina Ivanishvili had already accepted his resignation; however, this was not officially confirmed.

Additionally, reports circulated that Irakli Garibashvili, the former Georgian Prime Minister and current Chairman of the Georgian Dream party, had been hospitalised with severe injuries following an altercation within the Georgian Dream party. Giorgi Bachiashvili, former Chairman of Ivanishvili's United Investment Fund, provided commentary on this incident during a television appearance.

Conversely, pro-government sources have asserted that the injuries sustained by Garibashvili were merely minor, occurring during a training session. Garibashvili subsequently made a public appearance and categorically denied the rumours surrounding his assault within his own party, branding them as a deliberate falsehood.

Remarkably, on December 12, seven Members of European Parliament (MEPs) attended protests in Tbilisi specifically for this purpose. They engaged in discourse with Salome Zurabishvili, leaders of opposition parties, representatives of civil society, and journalists. The Members of the European  Parliament (MEPs) declined to convene with representatives of the Georgian authorities, asserting that they considered the latter to be "illegitimate."

Subsequent to reports leaked to the local media on Salome Zurabishvili's alleged intentions to impede the election of a new head of state by orchestrating a parliamentary blockade and a nationwide strike, Kavelashvili counseled her to "resign without further delay."

Georgian Chessboard

Georgia's strategic significance is underscored by its location at the crossroads of geopolitical events, acting as a hub where global and regional interests intersect and often conflict. Situated in the South Caucasus, the country has become a key player in the struggle for influence in this vital region.

Georgia faces a complex mix of Western pressure, internal political divisions, and external interference, which threaten the fragile balance between integration and sovereignty. Its sociopolitical landscape reveals two distinct societal groups: one strongly aspires to European integration, ready to make necessary concessions, while the other values traditional principles, emphasizing the need to protect national sovereignty while pursuing ties with Europe.

The controversy surrounding the "foreign agents" law remains fresh in public memory. While globalists criticized the legislation as a threat to democracy, the term "foreign agents" was absent from the text. Instead, the media coined this term, creating confusion among the public. Nonetheless, many Georgians view the law as a safeguard against foreign influence, reflecting a desire to protect national interests.

The legislation provided a pretext for criticism from the European Union and the United States, which framed it as a threat to democratic freedoms. However, its primary aim was to limit foreign interference—a concern for external actors. For many Georgians, the law symbolizes a strategy to defend the nation against external pressures.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s announcement that the ruling Georgian Dream party would delay EU accession negotiations until late 2028 sparked protests and divided society. To some, this decision betrayed their aspirations for European integration; to others, it represented a step toward asserting national sovereignty. Georgia demanded equal dialogue with its European partners, seeking recognition as a full-fledged partner rather than an object of external dictates. Over time, it became clear that the suspension was not an abandonment of European aspirations but an attempt to shift the tone of negotiations away from bureaucratic impositions.

The South Caucasus has emerged as a crucial hub for transportation corridors and energy security, drawing interest from global powers such as the US, EU, Russia, Türkiye, China, and Iran. Navigating these challenges requires the Georgian leadership to adopt an independent policy, balancing internal demands with external pressures on the path to European integration. The Georgian Dream government must skilfully navigate this geopolitical landscape.

Peaceful Protests or Revolutionary Upheaval?

While peaceful protests are a civil right, recent events have escalated into riots resembling "color revolutions." Protesters clashed with law enforcement, throwing stones, blinding officers with lasers, and launching fireworks. Attempts to breach parliamentary gates and disrupt stability were met with restraint by police, but both protesters and officers suffered injuries. 

These developments echoed the Maidan protests in Ukraine, with barricades, smoke, and violent clashes. However, on December 5, protests shifted to more lawful actions, suggesting external influence behind the change. Law enforcement focused on preventing riots rather than suppressing peaceful demonstrations, uncovering stockpiles of riot gear among certain groups. 

In response, on December 13, the Georgian parliament passed amendments to the Code of Administrative Offenses, banning masks, pyrotechnics, and lasers during rallies, and imposing heavy fines for illegal blockades and defacement of buildings. After the presidential elections, Kobakhidze declared that "the Maidan in Georgia has failed," reaffirming the country’s commitment to EU integration while maintaining sovereignty.

Can Protests Be Avoided?

At a press conference on 3 December, Irakli Kobakhidze expressed regret over four unsuccessful attempts to incite revolutions and organise national uprisings in Georgia, financed from abroad, since November 2020. While reports on parliamentary elections highlighted certain violations at polling stations, leading to criminal investigations, these incidents did not have a decisive impact on the overall election results. The Central Election Commission validated the elections and confirmed their outcomes. 

Unconditional adherence to Western demands has deepened internal divisions, intensifying discord between liberal elites and more moderate nationalist factions, while exacerbating broader societal contradictions.

European Aspirations vs. Sovereignty

Georgia is reaffirming its sovereignty, resisting external pressures to be drawn into conflicts with Russia. Although Georgia has openly supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its citizens have participated in Ukraine’s defence, the government has prioritised national security and interests over involvement in active conflict. For the past two decades, both the United States and the European Union have viewed Georgia as a strategic outpost for countering Russian influence. In this context, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov remarked that ongoing efforts seek to transform Georgia into a buffer zone through heightened political, military, and media pressure.

Georgia’s balanced policy prioritises its people’s interests, striving to avoid military confrontation that could hinder its European integration efforts. Given unresolved ethnic conflicts and the absence of diplomatic ties with Russia, the risk of internal instability remains significant. By avoiding escalation, Georgia continues to align its policies with state priorities, despite criticism from certain factions advocating confrontation with Russia. These groups imply that conflict might be necessary to prevent Georgia’s entry into the EU.

While most European nations acknowledge Georgia’s genuine commitment to EU integration, certain forces are pushing to replace the current leadership with one less focused on maintaining strategic partnerships with Azerbaijan and Türkiye. Such actions threaten to undermine regional stability and create opportunities for interference in South Caucasus affairs.

The electoral success of Georgian Dream, alongside Mikhail Kavelashvili’s presidency, reinforces Georgia’s regional influence and reliability as a partner to neighbouring countries. Following the elections, Irakli Kobakhidze reiterated Georgia’s unwavering commitment to EU membership, stating, "Georgia will do everything to secure EU membership." He further emphasised that while compromises could be made with the EU, they must not come at the cost of Georgia’s sovereignty, independence, or territorial integrity.

Confidence remains strong in the wisdom of the Georgian people. Their ability to preserve stability and address ethnic conflicts is seen as crucial to ensuring peace and prosperity for all communities within the South Caucasus. Georgia’s approach reflects its determination to avoid repeating Ukraine’s trajectory, instead focusing on stability and the preservation of sovereignty as it forges its path toward European integration.