FROM WAR TO PEACE AND BACK AGAIN

Just days before the end of the Democratic administration in the White House, HAMAS and Israel agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza and a prisoner exchange. Many sighed in relief, believing the horrors that had engulfed the region were finally behind them.

Amidst Competing Administrations

Following the agreement, then-President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump each claimed credit for ending the war, which had lasted nearly a year and a half and caused tens of thousands of casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to express gratitude to both leaders for their support.

However, even casual observers of the region's affairs assumed that Donald Trump's intervention played a decisive role in brokering the deal. Given Trump's exceptional influence over Netanyahu and their long-standing relationship, it's reasonable to conclude that the agreement likely wouldn't have materialized without the president-elect's involvement.

"This historic ceasefire agreement was possible only because of our victory in November, signaling to the world that my administration will seek peace and negotiate to ensure the safety of Americans and our allies," Trump declared on social media. He added that his new special representative for the Middle East, Steve Vitkoff, would continue to "work closely with Israel and our allies to ensure Gaza never again becomes a haven for terrorists."

To be fair, the agreement was fundamentally based on what became known as the "Biden Plan." Biden himself stated that the deal followed the "precise outlines" of the plan he presented at the end of May. "This is the result not only of extraordinary pressure on HAMAS and shifting regional dynamics after the ceasefire in Lebanon and Iran's weakening but also of persistent, painstaking American diplomacy," Biden remarked.

In subsequent White House addresses, Biden noted that his administration negotiated the deal, while Trump's team was tasked with ensuring its implementation, suggesting Vitkoff had also been a partner in the negotiations. "Over the past few days, we've acted as one team," Biden said, highlighting the coordination between both administrations.

This collaboration was possible due to remarkably aligned interests. Biden sought to secure a foreign policy win amid generally bleak outcomes, while Trump needed to resolve at least one of two global crises before taking office, allowing him to focus fully on Ukraine.

A Ceasefire is Just the Beginning

Securing a ceasefire is only the first step. The second, more substantial part of Biden's plan addresses Gaza's reconstruction and governance—tasks expected to take many months, if not years. This phase will inevitably fall under Trump's administration, as the U.S. remains the guarantor of the agreement, which will unfold in several stages.

A key concern is whether the new administration will honor the post-conflict plan for Gaza, developed over the past year.

The first part of the plan consists of three phases:

1. A six-week ceasefire, Israeli troop withdrawal, and release of captives.

2. Continued release of captives and troop withdrawals alongside a sustainable ceasefire.

3. Returning the remains of deceased hostages to their families and launching reconstruction efforts in Gaza.

Former Secretary of State Antony Blinken's broader strategy calls for an international presence in Gaza to collaborate with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank on governance and reconstruction. It also includes a temporary foreign security presence to address Israel's security concerns.

Despite mounting pressure from pro-Palestinian factions within the Democratic Party advocating for an arms embargo against Israel, US policy toward Tel Aviv remained largely unchanged. Notably, Blinken's farewell press conference nearly unravelled as journalists repeatedly interrupted, accusing him of enabling genocide against Palestinians and capitulating to Netanyahu. Meanwhile, the State Department notified Congress of an $8 billion arms sale to Israel.

One notable achievement of the Democratic administration was preventing Arab states from intervening in the Gaza conflict. Moreover, Biden's refusal to impose significant restrictions on arms sales to Israel helped weaken HAMAS and Hezbollah—albeit at the cost of immense suffering among Palestinians and Lebanese. This legacy now falls to Trump, providing an opportunity to start fresh.

A New Balance of Power

The ceasefire agreement underscored Türkiye's growing role in the region. When HAMAS withdrew from negotiations, U.S. officials turned to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, asking him to "use his influence to bring HAMAS back to the table." This was confirmed by Antony Blinken during a press conference.

In Israel, reactions to the ceasefire were mixed, with many right-wing media outlets and politicians framing it as a defeat.

Critics argued that none of Israel's objectives were met. Even before the conflict, Netanyahu's government had vowed to destroy HAMAS and secure the release of Israeli hostages. Fifteen months later, HAMAS remains operational. Blinken himself admitted that defeating HAMAS outright is impossible, as the organization has replenished its ranks.

The timing of the ceasefire—just before Trump's inauguration—appeared designed to showcase American diplomatic effectiveness. Netanyahu, in turn, supported his longtime ally's narrative. In his inaugural address, Trump emphasized that the deal validated his commitment to swiftly ending Middle Eastern conflicts, as it was secured before he even took office.

Interestingly, when asked on January 20 whether he was optimistic about the agreement's future, Trump replied evasively, "I'm not sure. This isn't our war; it's their war." The very next day, Netanyahu announced Operation Iron Wall in the West Bank, citing the need to reinforce security.

This move likely aimed to appease far-right cabinet members dissatisfied with the ceasefire terms, some of whom had threatened to withdraw from the government.

From Conflict to Conflict

Hours after Iron Wall began, Israeli forces detained dozens of Palestinians, focusing operations on Jenin province with army units, border police (MAGAV), and the General Security Service (SHABAK).

Although Jenin is under the Palestinian Authority, real control lies with the militant "Jenin Battalion," hostile toward Israel.

Dismantling this battalion became a priority after the Gaza ceasefire. However, military operations in such areas risk extensive destruction and civilian casualties, potentially creating a new flashpoint. Many predict that operations in Jenin will be anything but straightforward.

This may be precisely Netanyahu's intention—signalling to his radical allies that military operations will continue unabated. Far-right politicians insist not only on HAMAS's destruction but also on eliminating all organizations perceived as threats to Israel, regardless of the ceasefire.

Following the ceasefire announcement, Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the ultra-right Jewish Power party and Minister of National Security, resigned from the coalition. He was joined by Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu and Minister for Negev Affairs, Galilee, and National Resilience Itzhak Wasserlauf.

Though Ben-Gvir's party holds only six Knesset seats, their support was critical for Netanyahu's coalition, which dropped from 68 to 62 mandates—just one short of the 61 needed for a majority. Under these conditions, Netanyahu cannot afford to alienate his most radical allies. Securing their loyalty may require yet another military campaign; otherwise, new elections could bring unfavorable outcomes for Likud and its leader.