TRUMP 2.0

In January, global attention was fixed on the United States. Donald Trump officially returned to the White House, taking office as the 47th president. In his inaugural address, he promised a new Golden Age for America. "They wanted to take away my freedom, they wanted to take away my life, but God saved me to make America great again," declared Trump in his second reincarnation, assigning himself a "great" mission. Among his high-profile promises were restoring the country to "traditional values" and introducing new approaches to both domestic and foreign policy. Notably, foreign policy now extends beyond Earth—Trump plans to plant the US flag on Mars.

New Faces, Old Rivalries

Former president and Trump's staunch political rival, Joe Biden, attended the inauguration ceremony at the Capitol, leaving behind a traditional farewell letter, the contents of which remain undisclosed. However, Trump appeared to disregard it, promptly signing an executive order that overturned 78 of Biden's decisions. Observers have noted contradictions in Trump's new orders, leaving many dissatisfied—especially those who had enjoyed political priority in recent years.

It's evident that the new administration's decisions will face legal challenges. For example, Seattle federal judge John Coughenour has already temporarily blocked Trump's executive order restricting automatic birthright citizenship, deeming it "unconstitutional." Moreover, human rights organizations are expected to strongly oppose many of the new policies.

Trump's most consequential executive actions concern artificial intelligence, government censorship, the establishment of the Ministry of Government Efficiency, reforms in the Department of Justice, sweeping economic and industrial changes, as well as new trade and taxation systems. The US aims to become an energy-exporting nation once again, guided by the slogan "Drill, baby, drill," with plans to produce affordable oil and gas. In line with this, Trump signed executive orders withdrawing the US from both the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement—moves anticipated but still shocking to many.

Trump has also criticized the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and global health crises, claiming the WHO is overly influenced by political agendas and that the US contributes disproportionally compared to other countries. Regarding environmental policy, he dismissed the Green Deal as "wasteful," asserting, "We're going to let people buy the cars they want."

Another series of controversial decisions concern gender and race policies. Trump officially declared that there are only two genders—male and female—banning transgender individuals from participating in women's sports and serving in the military. He also announced that transgender medical procedures would become rare. From now on, merit, not race, gender, or sexual orientation, will be the key factor in government considerations. This effectively dismantles the diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies previously embedded in American governance.

The Politics of Ambiguity

Some of Trump's most striking announcements pertain to foreign policy. His statements before and during the inauguration about reclaiming influence over the Panama Canal, turning Canada into another US state, and purchasing Greenland from Denmark—initially dismissed as populist rhetoric—appear to reflect serious intentions. The feasibility of these ambitions is debatable, but the fact that Trump repeatedly emphasizes them speaks volumes.

Trump also declared a state of emergency at the southern border with Mexico, citing the ongoing migration crisis. He announced plans to classify Latin American drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and to begin the mass expulsion of undocumented immigrants. Additionally, Biden's reversal of Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism has been undone, and the Gulf of Mexico is now officially claimed as American territory. Collectively, these moves outline a unified region designated as a strategic American interest zone—at least rhetorically.

When it comes to China—often labelled America's primary strategic rival—Trump's stance is less defined. Apart from the Panama Canal, tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan, and threats of imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods, his rhetoric has been restrained. Surprisingly, he hinted at diplomatic openness by granting TikTok a 75-day reprieve in the US and criticizing Taiwan for prioritizing its semiconductor industry over American interests.

Business magnate Elon Musk, who holds significant interests in China, might play a key role in shaping this delicate dynamic. While Musk's influence could bolster Trump's seemingly conciliatory approach, the administration's hawkish figures, like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, alongside Trump's own impulsive tendencies, make long-term predictability unlikely.

Chatham House, a respected British think tank, has suggested that Trump's ambiguous China policy could heighten the risk of unintended escalations around Taiwan and the South China Sea, potentially strengthening China's bid for global leadership.

Peace or Provocation?

In the Middle East, Trump remains a staunch ally of Israel and seeks a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia. He also appears interested in leveraging Syrian territory for Qatari gas transit. His approach to Iran remains unclear, though he's hinted that a new nuclear deal could resolve tensions without resorting to military action—a prospect beneficial to both nations.

Trump has proclaimed himself a peacemaker, vowing to end ongoing global conflicts. The most significant of these remains the war in Ukraine, a flashpoint that could reshape the world order. While Trump avoided mentioning Moscow and Kiev in his inauguration speech, he soon addressed the conflict in detail. Reports suggest he plans to initiate dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin, though he's determined not to make concessions. Trump aims to pressure Putin using economic tactics—lowering oil prices, imposing high tariffs, and enforcing stringent sanctions on Russian exports. "He's got to make a deal. I think he's destroying Russia by not making a deal," Trump stated confidently, though many doubt Putin's willingness to yield, given that he's not primarily a businessman.

Potential US-Russia negotiations face numerous uncertainties, including Ukraine's position, Europe's involvement, China's role, and the logistics of potential peace talks. Additionally, Trump's controversial territorial claims over Denmark and Canada have raised concerns about America's diplomatic stability. Further unsettling was the executive order to suspend foreign aid to all countries—except Israel and Egypt—for 90 days.

No discussion of Trump's foreign policy would be complete without mentioning Elon Musk, now head of the newly established Department of Government Efficiency. Musk's prominence rivals Trump's, both in terms of capabilities—ranging from blockchain and AI to energy innovation—and in his polarizing public image. During Trump's inauguration, Musk's use of a hand gesture resembling the controversial Bellamy salute sparked heated debate. While ultimately dismissed as a historical American gesture, the controversy left a lingering unease.

The real question isn't about gestures but about the evolving relationship between Trump and Musk—two figures equally defined by ambition, unpredictability, and bold action. Will their dynamic lead to future conflict, or could Musk emerge as Trump's potential successor? Despite Trump's relentless criticism of Joe Biden's age, he himself isn't a young man.

So, what lies ahead for America and the world under Trump's renewed leadership? Does the US possess the strength and resources to achieve the sweeping changes he envisions? His executive orders targeting Biden's policies have already disrupted the continuity traditionally seen in American governance, raising questions about the nation's credibility on the global stage. If every new administration can effortlessly undo its predecessor's work, what does that mean for Washington's long-term stability? Are we on the brink of a new era where both the measures and principles guiding international relations undergo a profound transformation?