NOT A MILITARY ALLIANCE

The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and Iran on January 17 in Moscow was one of the most significant international events of the month. This development further solidifies the growing relationship between the two nations, which have been increasingly collaborating in recent years and even decades. However, it is important to note that this does not automatically translate into a significant impact on either regional or global politics.

Shared Interests

Following the signing ceremony, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian held a joint press conference. During the event, Putin emphasized that both sides are "united in their commitment to not rest on their achievements and to elevate their relations to a qualitatively new level. This commitment is outlined in the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. It sets ambitious goals and outlines directions for deepening bilateral cooperation in the long term, spanning politics, security, trade, investment, and humanitarian fields.

The agreement, which is valid for 20 years with automatic renewals for subsequent five-year periods, includes provisions for joint military exercises, a commitment to prevent the use of their territories to support separatist movements threatening the stability and territorial integrity of the other party, and cooperation in combating international terrorism. Notably, the agreement also opposes the use of unilateral coercive measures, which Moscow and Tehran consider internationally wrongful acts, and includes a pledge to refrain from joining third-party sanctions against each other. A key clause stipulates: "In the event that one of the Parties is subjected to aggression, the other Party shall not provide any military or other assistance to the aggressor that would facilitate the continuation of such aggression..."

This clause underscores Russia and Iran's commitment to countering Western-imposed sanctions collectively. Additionally, both countries have guaranteed not to participate in military or political activities by third parties that target each other's interests. This suggests that Iran will not oppose Russia in the Ukraine conflict, which has become a battleground between Russia and the West, while Russia will refrain from participating in any actions against Iran in its increasingly tense stand-off with the United States and Israel in the Middle East.

The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement formalizes the unprecedented level of cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, particularly in the military-technical sphere since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. In the current geopolitical climate, where the struggle between global power centres to preserve the old or establish a new world order has intensified, Russia and Iran are united by their shared interest in countering both economic sanctions and the military-political pressure exerted by the West, which has systematically weakened their positions in regions of vital interest to them.

However, does this shared interest in countering the West mean that Russia and Iran are prepared to elevate their bilateral partnership, which has already achieved strategic depth, to a much higher, alliance-like level in military and political terms?

Pezeshkian, Putin, and the Shadow of Trump

The Russia-Iran agreement does not include a clause on mutual military assistance or defence. This is a key factor that prevents the growing closeness between Moscow and Tehran from being interpreted as a clear move toward a strategic alliance. A relevant point of comparison is the relationship between Russia and North Korea, which is also governed by a document with a similar title—the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. Signed on June 19, 2024, during Putin's visit to Pyongyang, this agreement includes a provision for mutual assistance in the event of aggression against either party. Specifically, it states: "In the event that one of the Parties is subjected to an armed attack by any state or group of states and thus finds itself in a state of war, the other Party shall immediately provide military and other assistance using all means at its disposal, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the legislation of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation." This provision has been cited in reports of North Korean military personnel deployed to support Russia in its war against Ukraine.

The Russia-Iran agreement does not include such a provision, although it does express a mutual desire to "deepen and expand relations in all areas of mutual interest and strengthen cooperation in security and defence." This suggests a continuation of their collaboration in arms transfers, which has already been marked by high-profile events such as Russia's acquisition of Iranian Shahed drones and, according to Western claims, Fath-360 ballistic missiles. Concurrently, Russian media has reported that Tehran is interested in acquiring Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defence systems. However, the absence of a mutual defence clause in the bilateral agreement suggests that the document signed on January 17 is relatively restrained and lacks the grand strategic ambitions of a formal alliance.

Within the Russian expert community, there is a view that this restraint stems from the rise to power of Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist figure in Iran who is inclined toward dialogue with the West and less eager to deepen cooperation with Russia to the level of a close alliance. This contrasts with his predecessor, the conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a plane crash in May of last year. Raisi had been the driving force behind the strategic partnership agreement with Russia, aiming for maximum military alignment between the two nations.

Another telling detail is that Iran, unlike North Korea, does not recognize Crimea or other Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia as Russian. This further underscores that the comprehensive partnership outlined in the Moscow agreement is not a reflection of complete alignment in positions and interests that might push the two countries toward deeper interdependence. Rather, it is a carefully calculated step aimed at expanding dialogue to counter shared threats.

The timing of the agreement’s signing is also significant—it came on the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president. Trump’s unpredictability regarding potential steps to push Russia and Ukraine toward a swift peace, as well as his determination to increase pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program and significantly reduce Tehran’s influence in the Middle East, adds urgency to the situation. The latter is seen as part of a broader effort to marginalize Iran following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the weakening of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah in Lebanon due to Israeli military operations. Trump has repeatedly warned of the possibility of pre-emptive strikes on Iranian territory. By signing the strategic partnership agreement, Iran and Russia have positioned themselves to strengthen their political and diplomatic standing in the face of potential challenges from the new U.S. administration.

North-South and The Role of Azerbaijan

The Russia-Iran agreement specifies particulars of economic cooperation, underscoring the strategic nature of their partnership. Moscow and Tehran have agreed to support trade and economic collaboration in all areas of mutual interest, including the creation of payment infrastructure independent of third countries.

A key area of economic cooperation is energy. The agreement emphasizes Russia and Iran's interest in joint projects in nuclear energy, including the construction of nuclear power facilities. This includes advancing plans for Russia to build two new units at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran, which Putin described as "a significant contribution to strengthening Iran's energy security."

The agreement also includes significant economic provisions related to Azerbaijan, which is strategically positioned as a key link in the development of East-West and North-South transport and energy corridors. Specifically, the agreement envisions a gas pipeline from Russia to Iran passing through Azerbaijan. Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev has confirmed that the pipeline route has been agreed upon, with negotiations on pricing nearing completion. Additionally, there is a preliminary agreement to increase the pipeline's capacity from an initial 2 billion cubic meters per year to 55 billion cubic meters.

Another significant agreement involves the development of the International North-South Transport Corridor, a railway route connecting the Baltic Sea to the Persian Gulf, linking Russia to India. Putin noted that discussions are ongoing regarding the construction of a railway line from Iran's Rasht to Azerbaijan's Astara as part of this project.

During the 16th meeting of the Azerbaijan-Iran Joint Intergovernmental Commission on Economic, Trade, and Humanitarian Cooperation, which was held in Tehran on January 22, Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazrpash announced that Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia had reached an agreement to enhance the North-South Transport Corridor, a key route for strengthening regional and international logistics. "The Rasht-Astara railway plays a strategic role in the development of this corridor. The present agreement underscores Azerbaijan's importance as a pivotal link in the freight transportation network between Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia. It will open new opportunities for optimizing transport flows and strengthening cooperation among the countries," Bazrpash emphasized.

Further discussions on the development of the North-South Corridor took place during a meeting of the transport ministers of Azerbaijan, Russia, and Iran in Moscow on January 28. These developments underscore Azerbaijan's growing role in the broader Eurasian geopolitical and geo-economic landscape. The Russia-Iran rapprochement, formalized by the Moscow agreement, is not only a reflection of escalating global tensions but also a key component of regional cooperation.