RIGHT TURN?

In the run-up to the early parliamentary elections scheduled for February 23, the atmosphere in Germany's political circles is one of heightened excitement. The main topics of debate remain the crisis of migration policy, the state of the economy, and military spending. Voter preferences on these issues are shaping up in such a way that the former power structures governing the country no longer function effectively. This has led to the collapse of the "Traffic Light Coalition," which experts had deemed unviable from the outset, leaving behind a legacy of contradictions. While the current circumstances, particularly within the EU and Germany itself, are not ideal for elections, the status quo is no longer an option. However, Berlin appears to lack the necessary solutions to navigate the new internal and external realities. Consequently, Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, despite reservations and disquiet among many of his Social Democratic Party (SPD) colleagues, is once again standing for the role of chancellor. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz, the leading conservative candidate for chancellor and leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is making moves that have sent shockwaves through the country's political elite. The far-right populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been described as "unruly" and is currently experiencing what it terms a "historic triumph".

"Non-Incumbents"

The most notable pre-election scandal occurred when the conservative opposition bloc of the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), led by Friedrich Merz, proposed a series of measures to tighten migration policy in the Bundestag, garnering support from the AfD. This development effectively brought the AfD out of political isolation, underscoring the growing traction of right-wing populist ideas and the significant influence the party has accumulated. This realisation has proven challenging for many to accept, given the long-standing principle of the German political system of rejecting collaboration with far-right groups. It is noteworthy that the AfD is listed by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution as an organisation suspected of right-wing extremism, and is widely regarded as a threat to the constitutional order. Consequently, Merz faced significant criticism. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the move as an "unforgivable mistake", while members of the Left Party called on citizens to resist the "fascists". Even former Chancellor Angela Merkel, often referred to as the Mutti (Mother) of German politics, broke her silence to join the chorus of condemnation. This reaction is unsurprising, as many attribute the country's current migration challenges to the policies Merkel pursued since 2015.

It is interesting to note that, despite the widespread discontent, no formal procedure to ban the AfD has been initiated. One possible reason for this is the reluctance to portray the far-right as victims, which could inadvertently attract more supporters. Peter Behringer, an AfD deputy, encapsulated this sentiment: "Opponents seek to deprive our voters of their 'democratic, free right to vote'." Opinion polls indicate that the AfD is not only listed as a right-wing extremist organisation but also ranks among the most popular parties in the country, with approximately 20 per cent of Germans intending to support the AfD in the upcoming early parliamentary elections. The "Alternative" party is already represented in nearly all state parliaments and the Bundestag, and its members vehemently deny any association with racism, emphasising that migrants and their descendants are among their ranks. The party's other demands include rejecting the euro, supporting traditional values, and reinstating compulsory military service, issues which, by their nature, leave little room for compromise.

Migrant Barometer

Friedrich Merz justified his decision to break the taboo on collaborating with the far right by stating that he could not stand idly by while "people in Germany are threatened, maimed, and killed". The proposals, which align closely with the ideas of right-wing populists, include the introduction of stringent police controls at German borders, effectively undermining the Schengen zone's principle of free movement, and the refusal to admit illegal migrants, accepting only those who have obtained visas in their home countries. The AfD's support for this initiative represents a situational alliance, but one that has alarmed many.

In the wake of the dissolution of the ruling coalition and the call for early parliamentary elections, the migration crisis has become a pivotal issue in the campaign. The situation was further compounded by a recent attack in Aschaffenburg, Bavaria, on January 22, in which an Afghan refugee, whose application for political asylum had been rejected, assaulted a man and a two-year-old child. This incident is just the latest in a series of migrant-related controversies in Germany. The issue is deeply entrenched and multifaceted, with the potential to further polarise German society. In the wake of the contentious Bundestag debate, thousands took to the streets in Hamburg, Essen, Leipzig, Bremen, Augsburg and other cities, among them the following slogans: "Those who collaborate with fascists must expect our resistance." Some demonstrations specifically targeted the AfD, such as the protest in Neu-Isenburg, which drew around 9,000 participants. In Munich on 8 February, an estimated 250,000 people gathered (organisers claim the figure exceeded 320,000). Similar protests occurred in Hannover, Rostock, and other cities, with demonstrators rallying "against right-wing extremism" and "those who incite hatred and undermine the democratic order".Interestingly, polls indicate that nearly 60 per cent of Germans would view the passage of an anti-migrant bill in the Bundestag as "the right thing to do". This stance is supported by at least half of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD voters (71 per cent of CDU/CSU supporters).Opposition to such measures is primarily found among supporters of the Greens (74 per cent) and the Left Party (78 per cent).

It is evident that the implications of this issue extend beyond Germany's borders, with the manner in which Berlin addresses the migration crisis set to have ramifications across the European Union. German Foreign Minister and Green Party member Annalena Baerbock has issued a strong critique of the CDU/CSU's migration proposals, calling for the party to abandon populist rhetoric, adhere to European legislation, and refrain from unilateral actions that could potentially erode trust among EU partners. Baerbock has expressed concerns that Merz's approach could provoke a border crisis or even a conflict between Poland and Germany. Perhaps the most pragmatic solution has been proposed by left-conservative leader Sahra Wagenknecht—a national referendum on the future direction of migration policy. Curiously, this idea has yet to gain traction among other politicians, possibly due to fears over the potential outcome of such a vote.

War and Economy

Another critical issue in pre-election Germany is the defence budget. Experts unanimously agree that the Bundeswehr requires significant investment, as the country's current defence capabilities would only sustain it for a few days in the event of an external attack. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has stated that the Bundeswehr needs an additional 28-30 billion euros annually to maintain its readiness—a challenge compounded by the need to avoid cuts to social spending and the accumulation of debt. In 2022, Germany established a special fund of €100 billion through national loans to address the shortcomings of its Armed Forces. However, when this programme concludes in 2027, Berlin will face a deficit of 30 to 40 billion euros in its defence budget to meet NATO's target of 2 per cent of GDP, if not more. This issue is not unique to Germany, as it is a concern for all of Europe.

Amidst this, another salient issue in German politics is the economic trajectory and debates over deindustrialisation—the relocation of production to other countries, particularly the United States. Challenges are particularly evident in the manufacturing sector and the automotive industry, a cornerstone of the German economy. By the end of 2024, German GDP growth stood at a mere 0.2 per cent, with projections for this year suggesting a modest increase to 0.4 per cent. Projections indicate that GDP growth will remain below 0.8-0.9% in the medium term. The German economy has been hindered by the pandemic and the subsequent energy crisis. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, Germany has allocated approximately €44 billion to Kiev, according to government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit. This figure includes military support, financial aid, and expenses related to hosting and providing for refugees. These expenditures have put additional strain on the national budget. However, a closer examination of the German economy reveals that not all sectors are struggling. For instance, the production of aeroplanes, ships, trains, and military equipment has seen growth, and the pharmaceutical industry is performing well. When discussing Germany's economic challenges, much of the discourse is driven by political and lobbying interests, as well as impending structural changes for which not all stakeholders are prepared.

Germany, like France, is facing economic and political instability that contrasts sharply with the stability voters have come to expect, largely attributable to the geopolitical upheavals of recent years, which have only intensified since Donald Trump's return to the White House. In mid-January, a mass demonstration in Berlin protested not only the policies of the AfD but also US President Donald Trump and his ally, entrepreneur Elon Musk. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed dismay at Musk's support for the AfD.

A Right Turn?

Polls indicate that voter support for the CDU/CSU stands at 29-30 per cent, with the AfD in second place (21-22 per cent) and the SPD trailing in third (15-18 per cent). The Greens garner 12-14 per cent, the Left Party 5 per cent, Sahra Wagenknecht's Union for Reason and Justice (SSV) 6-8 per cent, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) risks failing to enter the Bundestag. In other words, the Christian Democrats are poised to secure a majority, while the SPD struggles to regain its footing. Reports suggest that SPD co-chair Lars Klingbeil repeatedly urged Chancellor Olaf Scholz not to seek re-election and instead nominate Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who leads the ratings as Germany's most popular politician. Scholz, however, refused to step aside, setting the stage for potential internal strife within the party. Against this backdrop, a third of Germans believe Friedrich Merz would make a "good" chancellor capable of forming a functional government.

Several coalition scenarios are being considered.

The first option is a CDU/CSU-led government in partnership with the SPD and possibly the Greens. Such an arrangement could revive the grand coalition model, which has historically ensured stability in Germany.

The second option involves CDU leader Markus Söder's reluctance to form a coalition with the Greens, coupled with the SPD's potential refusal to ally with Merz. In this case, Merz may have no choice but to turn to the AfD. This possibility may have been what Merz was testing with his migration initiative. By demonstrating a willingness to collaborate with the AfD, Merz has signalled greater political flexibility for his party, potentially drawing support from AfD voters who are ideologically aligned but reluctant to be associated with radicalism.

The third option is for Merz to step aside in favour of a more liberal CDU leader, with whom the SPD might be willing to form a coalition.

In any case, Germany will likely see a government coalition built on compromises—assuming the best-case scenario. The CDU, while remaining a conservative party, has shown it is no longer averse to flirting with far-right sentiments, even as the far right itself gains popularity.

Is Germany on the verge of a rightward shift? This trend is already evident in Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, Finland, the Netherlands, and may soon extend to Austria and the Czech Republic. On 8 February, leaders of the EU's far-right parties convened in Madrid, calling for sweeping changes in European politics under the slogan "Let's make Europe great again"—a phrase that echoes familiar rhetoric. Experts warn that such a shift will inevitably provoke resistance from the left, threatening the stability so cherished by Germans. For the European Union, in which Germany plays a pivotal role, this is deeply concerning news.